Market-wide Correction Ending in 3 months, BTC to 100k Next Year
Updated
After further analysis, I've come to the conclusion that there is actually a much more likely count than my recent contracting triangle idea, one that I considered previously but rejected off-hand until I just did more detailed analysis. This count works between ALL cryptocurrencies I've observed and fits into all required rules AND guidelines, unlike my previous contracting triangle count. The other issues I had with the contracting triangle count are: Wave-e is too big and the channeling is abnormal. Since these are just guidelines and not hard rules, I can't "rule out" the contracting triangle count, but since the diametric fits into all rules AND guidelines, I can say with confidence that it is a much more probable count.
Regardless, there should still be a significant bottom near here, so that part hasn't changed. What has changed is that we are likely to go to around 8000-9000, and then retrace almost all or all of that wave and make new lows. Because this is a diametric, the exact price of the end of wave-f and -g will be very difficult to determine until after the fact, however, the exact timing of wave-f and -g should be fairly simple to forecast, because in a diametric usually 5 of 7 waves are time similar to each other, and the other 2 of 7 are time similar to each other (but different from the other 5). The price targets are very likely to shift, but the time targets should remain fairly consistent, so instead of waiting for a particular price, we should wait for a particular time. Wave-f should take about 1 month, and wave-g should take about 2 months.
I think around 4000-4800 is a good price for a bottom because there's big bullish harmonics around those prices, but It's possible we don't make new lows at all and still form a wave-g, so we'll really just have to wait and see where were at when the timing is right in roughly 3 months. Like my contracting triangle count, this count still has the same target of 100k+ by next year, and whenever this pattern does finally come to an end you'll definitely want to be in the market.
“In every work of genius we recognize our own rejected thoughts, they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty.” -Ralph Waldo Emerson
Regardless, there should still be a significant bottom near here, so that part hasn't changed. What has changed is that we are likely to go to around 8000-9000, and then retrace almost all or all of that wave and make new lows. Because this is a diametric, the exact price of the end of wave-f and -g will be very difficult to determine until after the fact, however, the exact timing of wave-f and -g should be fairly simple to forecast, because in a diametric usually 5 of 7 waves are time similar to each other, and the other 2 of 7 are time similar to each other (but different from the other 5). The price targets are very likely to shift, but the time targets should remain fairly consistent, so instead of waiting for a particular price, we should wait for a particular time. Wave-f should take about 1 month, and wave-g should take about 2 months.
I think around 4000-4800 is a good price for a bottom because there's big bullish harmonics around those prices, but It's possible we don't make new lows at all and still form a wave-g, so we'll really just have to wait and see where were at when the timing is right in roughly 3 months. Like my contracting triangle count, this count still has the same target of 100k+ by next year, and whenever this pattern does finally come to an end you'll definitely want to be in the market.
“In every work of genius we recognize our own rejected thoughts, they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty.” -Ralph Waldo Emerson
Note
This chart has done very well so far, however there is one small change I want to make to the count that makes a lot more sense than the count on the above chartNote
Because there are significant price differences in some of the waves of wave-e, it most likely cannot be a symmetrical and must have ended on the smaller wave-g (on my short-term chart). Wave-f also appears to have begun last month, and is now coming to a completion because it is related to waves-d and -b by 1.0 in time. Wave-f also appears to be an expanding triangle.
The angle of each decline is decreasing, and based on that rate of decrease I get two possible targets, first one is 6200 around August 19th, the second is 5450 around September 4th. When wave-g completes we should get an extremely powerful and violent move up, which will confirm the beginning of the next uptrend.
Note
It's also possible for wave-f to go slightly higher for a few more days but most likely we should be beginning wave-g now or very soon.Note
CORRECTION: Primary target is 6200 on August *16-17th* around time of SEC announcement on ETFNote
As said before wave-f could be slightly bigger and that seems to be the case here. It's possible that we get wave-g now, and also that the SEC may delay the decision to approve the CBOE ETF, like the Direxion ETFs, because otherwise, wave-g will be fairly short in time. Though, I still think that there's a strong possibility that they will approve it at some point if not on the 16th, also that some other catalyst begins the uptrend, like India unbanning cryptocurrency.
There are a lot of short-term bearish divergences indicating that we should be nearing the top now, as well as the daily RSI divergences. The wave we've had so far hasn't been strong enough to signify the end of the downtrend and it appears that we will likely continue to consolidate on BTC. Many altcoins will probably continue to make new lows. However, this next month-long wave down will likely be the last one we experience before an explosive market-wide trend up.
Note
blockchaindaily.news/2018/07/26/winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-etf-rejected-by-sec/
The Winklevoss ETF appeal got denied, so most likely we have reached the end of wave-f and have now begun wave-g, which will probably end around the week of September 10th.
This time target comes from being 1.0 in time with wave-(c) and (b) and (a) of the larger diametric count. Also from being 1.0 in time with waves-e and a and b+c of the smaller diametric.
It's likely to end somewhere between 6100 and 4800, probably closer to 6000. However, it's best to focus more on the time targets than the price targets. When its near the time targets it will be time to re-analyze and see if it looks like we've formed a complete wave-g.
Note
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