Will the BTC downtrend continue?
Updated
BTC has down trended for 6 months. When you look at the smaller charts it's less obvious because it's messy but when you look at the monthly chart it's clear as can be.
The upside wicks are all lower. The downside wicks are all lower. We've made a series of lower lows and lower highs since the false breakout.
If we break again, we're going to go through the level I marked as the critical break level while we were at the high.
Read old post here;
Real make or break level for BTC now. Would be a very good look for it if it could break the downtrend, but if we can't we might be getting close to the obvious yank on this.
We might have been a through a 6 month period of baiting. Bringing in the bulls before the turn. If that's what's happening, we'd be close now.
The upside wicks are all lower. The downside wicks are all lower. We've made a series of lower lows and lower highs since the false breakout.
If we break again, we're going to go through the level I marked as the critical break level while we were at the high.
Read old post here;
Real make or break level for BTC now. Would be a very good look for it if it could break the downtrend, but if we can't we might be getting close to the obvious yank on this.
We might have been a through a 6 month period of baiting. Bringing in the bulls before the turn. If that's what's happening, we'd be close now.
Trade active
Took a bunch of BTC positions after the spike at the end of the week. Entry point was mainly around 64K.
Here's the backing analysis for it.
Note
Here's a post covering the roadmap of a full bear trade if the high is indeed in and we're in downtrend development.
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Bull pattern in MSTR failed also.
Here's a post from the MSTR low forecasting the bullish breakout move.
Was a good trade. Went up 50% from the entry, but it did not breakout.
The bull move looks like it failed in MSTR.
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Whenever I talk about a bubble in BTC someone always brings up ETFs as a counter point.
It's not a counter point! It is supportive.
What it is telling us is people are not interested in owning Bitcoin but they are interested in having exposure to BTC price going up.
This is the greatest removal yet from the idea of "Bitcoin is money" and very firmly landing in BTC for speculation.
Go look at 1,000 ETF launches and you'll see 700 asset class highs.
It does not prove anything. All it does is tells you enough people are interested in speculating in it now for people see it as worth while setting up and marketing an ETF to collect fees.
Note
Really, the creation of a secondary market only increases the odds of a speculative panic if we begin to sell off.
If a lot of the volume is done in the secondary market (ETF) rather than the primary market (Trades in the underlying), this may cause a problem later.
The secondary market is just an idea. People can buy and sell shares of the ETF without dealing with the underlying. It's much more liquid. All you do is click a button and it instantly happens.
But that's not how it works for the ETF that has to deal in the primary market.
They need to go into the real market and find a real buyer for all the dumping of the virtual BTC.
Which means, if there's a panic sell off - there's going to be a flood of sellers in the secondary market (And they will sell, because they don't care about Bitcoin and the idea - they're betting on the price and will be fickle), and then this translates to the ETF having to dump in block orders onto the primary market.
Creating an imbalance of support and demand in the primary market, which means there's a sell off in the primary market.
This then creates more selling in both the primary and secondary markets - and that's how capitulations happen.
Note
Taking shorts in MSTR and COIN also.
Both of these are showing more advanced signs of trend failure.
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Okay, let go through some candle PA theory.
As I am sure most of you will know, classic theory gives it that wicks tend to tell us price was not meant to trade there. Ergo, wicks off a level are often signs of a reversal.
BTC has a big monthly wick candle and there are a lot of people telling me about how these are reversal candles.
Which they can be, but candles need context. It's also a fact you'll find these wick candles at the highs before breaks. The hammer style candle is actually a counter signal in a downtrend. LOTS of them form in the little retracements.
In most instances where we have a wick bluff trap like this, we tend to see the low breaking in the candle after.
So, in theory, if we sell next month crypto might take a real hit this time.
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I always seem to end up in the same old debates about BTC and 4 year cycles. Here's a post covering all the main debunks for it.
I consider it statistically insignificant.
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Close to seeing failure of multiple bull trap setups in crypto.
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The idea crypto may be broad in a bear market is heavily rejected by the bulls but if you'd bought BTC in March of 2021 you'd have a 3.5 year return of zero.
...And that's the best performer.
Absolutely everything else, you'd have a small to big loss.
Crypto is, objectively, the worst performing asset over the last years.
Would have made considerably more being passive long DXY during the same time.
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