I only see these two possibilities for Bitcoin.
Updated
Hello!
Currently, I only see two possibilities of what Bitcoin will be doing.
The first one is that we just continue rising without big interruptions, and we will be going to at least 100k, possibly between 100k and 150k.
The second one is, that this is all just a giant bulltrap, we go to 40k-ish, and then go much lower than anyone would have thought possible.
Why these two extremes? Simple, because too many people think that we'll get a repeat of 2020/21 or 2017/18. I am pretty sure that therefore, exactly this
will NOT happen.
If we get a rally to 100k+, then this will be a surprise to everybody, and the same if the second thing happens. Both would be quite unexpected, because everybody
believes that we will only see a new ATH in 2024 and later. And I think something new will happen, something unexpected, and these are the two most unexpected things,
that don't fit the usual 4 year cycle theory, a theory which I think is wrong by the way.
We only had 4 year cycles, because we were super lucky that the SP500 or Dow Jones made new Alltime highs since 2010, and on average also every 4 years.
That whas driving Bitcoin's price, and not as much the halvings as I had initially thought.
So the first scenario of 100k+ will happen if the FED pauses rate hikes, in that pause, which could last the whole year (but only if inflation comes down), then we will see a huge stock rally
and then Bitcoin can also rise.
But if stocks will fall and we will see a crash event like in 2008, which cannot be excluded, then it will drag Bitcoin down with it.
Be prepared for both scenarios. It will be decided in the 40-50k range.
Currently, I only see two possibilities of what Bitcoin will be doing.
The first one is that we just continue rising without big interruptions, and we will be going to at least 100k, possibly between 100k and 150k.
The second one is, that this is all just a giant bulltrap, we go to 40k-ish, and then go much lower than anyone would have thought possible.
Why these two extremes? Simple, because too many people think that we'll get a repeat of 2020/21 or 2017/18. I am pretty sure that therefore, exactly this
will NOT happen.
If we get a rally to 100k+, then this will be a surprise to everybody, and the same if the second thing happens. Both would be quite unexpected, because everybody
believes that we will only see a new ATH in 2024 and later. And I think something new will happen, something unexpected, and these are the two most unexpected things,
that don't fit the usual 4 year cycle theory, a theory which I think is wrong by the way.
We only had 4 year cycles, because we were super lucky that the SP500 or Dow Jones made new Alltime highs since 2010, and on average also every 4 years.
That whas driving Bitcoin's price, and not as much the halvings as I had initially thought.
So the first scenario of 100k+ will happen if the FED pauses rate hikes, in that pause, which could last the whole year (but only if inflation comes down), then we will see a huge stock rally
and then Bitcoin can also rise.
But if stocks will fall and we will see a crash event like in 2008, which cannot be excluded, then it will drag Bitcoin down with it.
Be prepared for both scenarios. It will be decided in the 40-50k range.
Note
It's getting more interesting now. I have a slight bias towards the bullish case, because it would certainly surprise almost everybody to see 100k+ by years end. But we shouldn't be too euphoric, because the brutal scenario is certainly within the realm of possibility.At around 40-50k, it will be decided which path BTC will take, but as I said, I have a slight bullish inclination.
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