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BTC

Here is the most BULLISH scenario I can come up with:


1 - First, it is nearly guaranted that we are in a prolong correction, hence the large, encompassing A-B-C pattern.

2 - Projection of such pattern (not in terms of Elliott Wave, but simply in terms of geometry), Wave-C projection off of Wave-B defines 363.66 as pan-ultimate top for this correction ... Near December 2015.

3 - The two most recent channels reflect R.N. Elliott channel methodology ... Hence, we just completed an Intermediate Wave-(3), whereas Intermediate Wave-(4) should be under development at this time.

4 - Based on same R. N. Elliott channel construction, the secondary channel (GREEN) points to a higher border validation at/near 363.66.

5 - Bad news is that from a total Wave, these broad sweeping correction will tend to return o the origin of Wave-A ... Interestingly, this fits the Predictive/Forecasting Model's outer most tolerable WL value = 152.72, defined this past SEP 2015.

So, as mentioned before, the only analyses are revealing at the H4 levels and above, offering a broad "bird'seye view" of what the Bitcoin trader will HAVE TO endure, not only in terms of adverse excursion if ever SHORT, but in counter-trend threat if taking a long position, especially near the current yet-to-define top.

Best,

David Alcindor

29 OCT 2015 - BTC:

Alright. So, M15 dead. H1 dead. H4 dead = Big boys are buying like crazy.



Looking at the Model from the UP-side, here are the most relevant and probable levels of resistance, in fading order:

1 - TG-Hi = 332.18 - 29 OCT 2015

2 - TG-Hix = 349.31 - 29 OCT 2015

AND

3 - WL = 372.22 - 29 OCT 2015

In terms of geometry, here is a probable ATHENA:


Re-entry into SHORT is not worth, unless price commits to below the TRIGGER LINE:


All future analysis will be rendered off of DAILY, until larger players are done flossing their teeth of retail trader remnants.

David

BTC

07 NOV 2015 - BTC-Weekly Chart:


So far, the weekly chart has remained the most responsive chart. On 02 NOV 2015, it produced a series of bullish targets, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 407.24 - 02 NOV 2015 - This is a quantitative target, so it has little reversible effect on price, but it will often cause price to return back to it, acting as a future R/S level (if in new price territories), or confirming prior R/S levels if moving into prior territories;

AND

2 - TG-2 = 504.57 - 02 NOV 2015 - Here too, the target is a "Quant-Target", so it has little to no stopping power ... Yet, this is exactly what occurred in the chart, interestingly (well, to me, since this is not suposed to occur - What should have occurred was a shallow retracement, then a push to the qualitative targets, TG-Hi, TG-Hix.)

Again, this BTC is simply not acting as expected, so I won't really chance anything here in terms of predictive/forecasting pronouncement.

David Alcindor

iefan - I see how you are looking at it.

Yes, in this fashion, price can. The "mis"-behavior of the Quant-Target occurred by a lack of moving straight towards the Qual-Target - It is not a necessity, but a "next-step" occurrence that I had expected.


Instead, and as you have charted it, it is quite possible that price would seek a resting place at the 0.618 level:


This is a level which may also seek confirmation of a "transmural", or validation of a prior structure "across the wall":


David Alcindor

10 NOV 2015 - BTC-Daily Chart:


David Alcindor

... Expect a pull-back from this level ("transmural"):


David Alcindor

Diabolicus - Transmural simply means across ("trans") the wall ("mural").

It's simply a term I use to refer to a probable price reacting to a structure high/low that exists on the other side of a swing.

In geometric terms, the wall ("mural") acts as a line of symmetry where a Resistance Level (R) turns into a Support Level (S) across the wall:


This is a very simple patterning of price action which is quite ubiquitous.

For instance, within this same price field, there is another one at the bottom left:


There is nothing too refined about these levels, except that most traders might over-react to the intervening swing (mural) and may forget that it can be used instead as a measuring stick to establish a probable support once price returns from its wild move ... That level is defined by the base that prepared for the swing. I use this to remain aware of a potential consolidation or reversal:


Regarding the next price action IF price were to rise from the current level, then I could just as easily estimate a probable level of resistance (R) relative to the cluster of support (S) that occurred prior ro the significant down-swing - Following is what I would tend to project visually in the field.

David
I may be a bit crude, but that is what I would do if I only had highs and lows to go by (structural analysis).

14 NOV 2015 - BTC:


David Alcindor

14 NOV 2015 - BTC - Weekly Chart:

Relevant validation points and possible level of support:


David Alcindor

Hello @BitProf - First three targets are TG-1, 2, 3 - Numerical (quantitative) targets carry a HIGHER probability of being hit than qualitative targets, but lesser ability to cause reversal in price.

The last two values are TG-Lo and TG-Lox, which are qualitative targets. "Qual-targets" carry a LESSER probability of being hit relative to "Quant-Targets", but if attained, they will act as reversal levels.

David

15 NOV 2015 - BTC - 4-Hour Chart:



David Alcindor
... Look for these possible symmetrical projections - David

BTC

15 NOV 2015 - BTC - 15-Min. Chart:

Failure of this area would be very bearish:


David Alcindor

16 NOV 2015 - BTC - M15:
Price likely to be bound in this range - A break of either side may point to subsequent direction at this lower TF:


David Alcindor

16 NOV 2015 - BTC - 15-Min. Chart:



David Alcindor

16 NOV 2015 - Re: BTC - M15 Chart:
Watch for a break of floor risk:


David Alcindor

17 NOV 2015 - BTC:
Bears are weighing down on M15 ... Floor continues to hold:


David Alcindor

18 NOV 2015 - BTC - H1:

Price expected to rise to 375.35:


David Alcindor

... BTC ... 377.21 is the approximate end of this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry:


David Alcindor

... BTC ... Fibonacci's 0.396 also in line with above technical points:


David Alcindor

... BTC:

And of course, this standard 1.618-FE:


David Alcindor

... BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
A few days ago, I posted the following 4-hour chart, to which I have added each of the points:


At the time, Point-4 remained uncertain. However, I would now suspect that Point-4 would find an approximate residence near 375.5, as per 1-hour chart.

Bringing the two timeframes (H1 and H4) together, here is what we get:


Note that the alignment of the two ab = cd is lost (pink square pointed by arrow), ... until ab x 1.414 of the second symmetry regains alignment with the larger symmetry:


OVERALL: Following is the expected geometry (BLUE), as well as bearish projection:


Mind you that this 242.43 level represents just one bearish target ... See other targets in earlier posts.

David Alcindor
Diabolicus - Yes. Fat fingers ... I meant to type 0.386. Thank you!

... BTC: In addition to the larger Geo, here is an internal Geo development as well, suggesting a significant resistance at Point-4 of the larger (BLUE) Geo, in line with Point-5 of the internal Geo (BLACK):


Following is a probable price pathway, taking into account all aforementioned geometric contributions:



David Alcindor

... BTC - 4-Hour: I would pay particular attention to the RSI channel ... A new trend - predominantly bearish - has emerged, and the upper border of the channel could point to a probable level of corresponding top in price:


David Alcindor

... BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
Following is a refinement of the 4-hour chart, having adjusted the 2-4 Line slope:


David Alcindor

18 NOV 2015 - BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
As forecast, price continues to rally. As per recent analysis, this is expected to represent a limited bullish move, fashioned by the Geo and other aforementioned technical bounds:


David Alcindor.