BTCUSD: Bitcoin in April
Updated
2024-04-22 Bitcoin in April
The infamous nonevent halving has passed as expected. All this wasted energy and anxiety about pre- and post-halving crashes, volatility, wherever they said, it was all nonsense of course. There has never been a statistical or logical argument for any of it. All bullshit. Like Q-Anon.
April did bring some trading anxiety, however, as the bulls and the bears battled it out at the market top for continuation or turn-around after the March all-time high, which was achieved earlier in the cycle than previously.
Structurally, the top was an analytical puzzle, much like the market of January was as well, while it was progressing. I have hinted at the similarities several times in my postings, IIRC. Both are indeed very similar, because both hide a fifth wave between two corrections. Most traders never noticed, and I have not seen a single analysis that got it right. I didn’t get it quite right until late, after the bullish middle section of the range ended suddenly in another downturn. That’s when it dawned on me that I had felt that before, and the solution was immediate. Third wave- fourth wave-fifth wave-correction. Obviously. That’s the way it always works, and often it comes all in one big chunk of waves.
The stage is set for continuation of the 2023/24 market.
The infamous nonevent halving has passed as expected. All this wasted energy and anxiety about pre- and post-halving crashes, volatility, wherever they said, it was all nonsense of course. There has never been a statistical or logical argument for any of it. All bullshit. Like Q-Anon.
April did bring some trading anxiety, however, as the bulls and the bears battled it out at the market top for continuation or turn-around after the March all-time high, which was achieved earlier in the cycle than previously.
Structurally, the top was an analytical puzzle, much like the market of January was as well, while it was progressing. I have hinted at the similarities several times in my postings, IIRC. Both are indeed very similar, because both hide a fifth wave between two corrections. Most traders never noticed, and I have not seen a single analysis that got it right. I didn’t get it quite right until late, after the bullish middle section of the range ended suddenly in another downturn. That’s when it dawned on me that I had felt that before, and the solution was immediate. Third wave- fourth wave-fifth wave-correction. Obviously. That’s the way it always works, and often it comes all in one big chunk of waves.
The stage is set for continuation of the 2023/24 market.
Note
As the last daily candle grows in green territory, Bitcoin is fighting to regain its 4-hour SMA 200, seen in the following chart. This average has been a key support as well as a resistance in the chart for this entire market, at least since the end of the 2022 bear market.I expect improvement of momentum above this mark, about 67200.
Note
The first attempt to break above the 67000 USD area at the 200-period four-hour SMA failed sending the price down to below 64000.This marks wave two of the first Minute wave in the new uptrend.
Note
We see that Bitcoin has formed a new bullish trend channel, even though it may not feel bullish to most traders.But the chart never lies.
After being rejected at the four-hour SMA 200, with the other resistances in that area, BTC retraced to form this channel from the recent lows. An upswing to about 65000 followed, that has now been retraced once again to exactly the channel trend line. Confirming its value. This small wave could be one of two possibilities. It could still be a component of wave two correction, or it can be a new wave one and two for the new trend. We are waiting to let the market decide. But I have, perhaps prematurely, decided to label it as a correction with the ABC labeling.
Characterizing the transition from correction to progression is often difficult in situ.
Note
My assignment of the “little” wave as a corrective ABC is probably wrong. The B- wave has a clear 12345 structure, which indicates a motive impulse, thus we may expect the market to show us a bullish wave three pretty soon. We’ll see.Note
So, it wasn’t wrong. In fact the market took another small step down, exactly to the 0.618 Fib level of retracement from the top of wave one, ((i)). This is a common correction depth for a second wave. We are fairly confident this should be the end of corrections in April, as the month is closing out as well.Note
I think there are no more excuses for not having a new rally.In March, we saw the completion of Minor wave three from 38.5 k, followed by its correction in a large ABC or WXY in wave four. Then the wave sequence was completed in in a bullish period in wave five. This wave was corrected in another somewhat dramatic fashion down to below 60 k. This pullback was either a second wave or a fourth wave of larger degree. Which one, I am still ambiguously guided, I think I won’t know until the market reaches some common fib levels higher up. In any case, what follows has to be wave one of the new uptrend, and that has now been printed, along with its required correction.
Three corrections in seven weeks or so. Most people here think this was all one large correction, but they are all wrong, because nobody else really performs thorough Elliott wave analyses, which always uncover the true market state.
So, my famous last words have to be, let’s go up. No more excuses. See you at the top.
Note
So, where did April leave the state of BTC?Well bears found some more cheap coins in the basement and dared to sell them, pulling the market down to about 57 k. Clearly the five waves up from 38.5 k needed more retracement. The correction from 73 k really has not been very steep. Now it it has reached a very significant level in the 0.382 Fibonacci fraction of the rise from 38.5 to 72.7 k, the end of wave Minor 5, as shown in this chart.
With this latest extension, it was now possible to renumber the correction as well, a detail not easily seen in this chart.
There is a good chance that this correction is done at this level. This level is very significant and very much standard, especially for corrections in a fourth wave, but it can also be observed for wave 2.
Note
The market also seems to think that the correction has completed, but it has run up against the major trend line and paused, as is shown in the following chart. This price level is also defined by the 0.382 Fib retracement level just surpassed. The important 200-period SMA is still further up at 65.3 k. A break of the trend line might quickly bring it into play.This chart also reveals that the final wave structure of the entire correction from the 72.3 k wave 5 top is a zig-zag with both A and C subwaves being clear five wave impulses of almost equal length, C being just a bit shorter.
Note
The only aspect I didn’t like about this zigzag was the substructure of the first 12345, in A. Wave three and five appear as three-waves, as if a diagonal. I used to assign a combination wave.Note
I know it’s May now. But BTC is still engulfed in the tentacles of the correction and the bears are just waiting for another bite.The trend line is still the issue, and it is joined by the daily fib pivot R1 (green line) at this exact level.
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