BTC Long Term
It's not a bad time to buy in right now. If I had a lot of money, I'd buy at this price and hold for a year.
The TA is saying we should see the price make strong upward movements over the next 6-12 months. The rising volume supports this.
Beyond TA, we know that the BTC halving is set in May and that this event historically drives up the price. I believe that it will again this time as well.
For those of you who have looked into the Stock to Flow model, what I can say is that I am using the model as a tool that I don't completely understand, but I feel like I know enough to utilize the patterns it conveys.
On the Wikipedia page, you can see that the "stock" here is the amount of BTC in circulation. The "flow" is the amount of BTC produced per year by the miners. Academics have long used established mathematical models in the past in an attempt to describe uncharted territories since it's within the methodology of understanding any new area (you test and see how it's different, thereby learning a little bit more about the space). The assumption that lies underneath this is that the relationship between the stock and flow will yield this type of price movement, with respect to the number of days until the next BTC halving.
This model was originally used to predict the price of a scarce resource, where we treat BTC as such. We know that since it is not practical to constantly send BTC around the world due to the high fees associated with mining, we can assume that most investors will simply buy and hold; thus, taking their BTC out of circulation. This adds to the reason why the price can rise and fall in such a volatile fashion.
But these are all assumptions. Regardless though, I believe it's better to have more tools than less, so only time will tell.
Just look at the model and see for yourself: lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/.
I'd sell around the yellow-green/green area.
You see that the price deviates more on the upper-side whenever it's the case of a bull-run.
Long story short, it's extremely likely that BTC will get up to at least ~92k within the next year and can deviate to as much as 132k (looking at the model variance).
The TA is saying we should see the price make strong upward movements over the next 6-12 months. The rising volume supports this.
Beyond TA, we know that the BTC halving is set in May and that this event historically drives up the price. I believe that it will again this time as well.
For those of you who have looked into the Stock to Flow model, what I can say is that I am using the model as a tool that I don't completely understand, but I feel like I know enough to utilize the patterns it conveys.
On the Wikipedia page, you can see that the "stock" here is the amount of BTC in circulation. The "flow" is the amount of BTC produced per year by the miners. Academics have long used established mathematical models in the past in an attempt to describe uncharted territories since it's within the methodology of understanding any new area (you test and see how it's different, thereby learning a little bit more about the space). The assumption that lies underneath this is that the relationship between the stock and flow will yield this type of price movement, with respect to the number of days until the next BTC halving.
This model was originally used to predict the price of a scarce resource, where we treat BTC as such. We know that since it is not practical to constantly send BTC around the world due to the high fees associated with mining, we can assume that most investors will simply buy and hold; thus, taking their BTC out of circulation. This adds to the reason why the price can rise and fall in such a volatile fashion.
But these are all assumptions. Regardless though, I believe it's better to have more tools than less, so only time will tell.
Just look at the model and see for yourself: lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/.
I'd sell around the yellow-green/green area.
You see that the price deviates more on the upper-side whenever it's the case of a bull-run.
Long story short, it's extremely likely that BTC will get up to at least ~92k within the next year and can deviate to as much as 132k (looking at the model variance).
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