Bitcoin likes to destroy everyone, Bulls AND Bears.
Updated
So we can see that Bitcoin clearly shows a new dynamic since 2018, which it didn't have before.
Such a behavior as now without any kind of bounce, was unthinkable in 2010-2017. Bitcoin always loved huge bounces, but since 2018, when institutions started getting involved more and more, Bitcoin also started changing.
I expect Bitcoin therefore to behave very similar to the periods AFTER 2018, not before. So after 2018, we had the low at 3k, the runup to 15k, and the long drawn out correction.
I think we will see something similar now. Shorts are on the rise again because Bitcoin convinces everyone now that it is weak and wants to fall. So many people start shorting it.
Then it will destroy the bears by doing a fake bullrun to 50k, possibly even 55k to make it look really convincing that everything is fine again, and the bullrun has resumed. Everyone will go long, because bullrun is back.
But then BAM, Bitcoin will also destroy bulls by nicely falling down a steep cliff to below 20k, retesting the MA200. This seems inconceivable now, even preposterous, but I am convinced that BTC will have a brutal shakeout to destroy any last hope that we are in a bull cycle.
And then, when all hope is destroyed, and BTC has F'd bulls and bears alike, it will be ready for the real last part of the rally up to the 200k area by mid to late 2022.
This is my current picture based on BTCs behavior AFTER 2018.
Such a behavior as now without any kind of bounce, was unthinkable in 2010-2017. Bitcoin always loved huge bounces, but since 2018, when institutions started getting involved more and more, Bitcoin also started changing.
I expect Bitcoin therefore to behave very similar to the periods AFTER 2018, not before. So after 2018, we had the low at 3k, the runup to 15k, and the long drawn out correction.
I think we will see something similar now. Shorts are on the rise again because Bitcoin convinces everyone now that it is weak and wants to fall. So many people start shorting it.
Then it will destroy the bears by doing a fake bullrun to 50k, possibly even 55k to make it look really convincing that everything is fine again, and the bullrun has resumed. Everyone will go long, because bullrun is back.
But then BAM, Bitcoin will also destroy bulls by nicely falling down a steep cliff to below 20k, retesting the MA200. This seems inconceivable now, even preposterous, but I am convinced that BTC will have a brutal shakeout to destroy any last hope that we are in a bull cycle.
And then, when all hope is destroyed, and BTC has F'd bulls and bears alike, it will be ready for the real last part of the rally up to the 200k area by mid to late 2022.
This is my current picture based on BTCs behavior AFTER 2018.
Note
The pump is starting:Now the question: When we hit resistance, will we dump again? I think the likelihood is higher than pumping towards the end of the year to new ATHs.
But we will see how BTC behaves at resistance.
Note
This local bottom here seems to have developed a similarity with the late 2018 low at 3k. If we are lucky, we could get something lime this here:
I currently don't have any feeling for the likelihood of this scenario, or that we get a dip down to the MA200 again, hence I will position myself to be profitable in both scenarios :)
Note
Should BTC manage to break through BOTH the 0.618 and 0.768 fibo resistances at 51 and 57k, the chances are rising significantly for this scenario here:Namely that we will continue pumping and see ATHs towards the end of the year. The classic 4 year cycle basically.
It will be decided between 50 and 57k, if this is a bounce, or if this will be a continued rally.
Exciting weeks are ahead !
Note
The moment of truth will arrive soon: Will we see a dump to 37k or even lower, as extreme as 20k in the most brutal scenario? Thus ATH in mid to late 2022?Or a continuation of the rally and the confirmation of the 4 year cycle with ATH by the end of the year?
The decision time is almost here.
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