Possible Quick Flush and Bigger Bull Trap Now.
I'd say we're now at the point where BTC bulls have the best chance of a low. We're filling a bullish butterfly and if all is well and good with the world this can moon.
However, the failure of a bullish butterfly in this situation is a strong foreteller of a crash. There are a variety of ways a 1.61 can fail here. The immediate fail one usually has us slam to the 2.20 and then make a spike out bull trap (that's really sharp and aggressive).
So if we see a flush to around 80, this is where I plan to lock in profits and potentially fish for some longs.
But if that move hits, I do firmly think it's a sell the rip.
However, the failure of a bullish butterfly in this situation is a strong foreteller of a crash. There are a variety of ways a 1.61 can fail here. The immediate fail one usually has us slam to the 2.20 and then make a spike out bull trap (that's really sharp and aggressive).
So if we see a flush to around 80, this is where I plan to lock in profits and potentially fish for some longs.
But if that move hits, I do firmly think it's a sell the rip.
Trade active
Down it goes.
I think there's a bit more to go but were now into the risk area for bears. Bears should be aggressive profit protecting here I think.
No reason to enter until local candles break the lower high pattern.
Note
I;m fairly bullish at these levels - but I believe we just made an important break. A bit over 90K there will be more bear talk if we bounce. Trade closed: target reached
77K probably too low. Fair chance low is made.
Big sell the rip if it is though.
Out shorts.
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This has filed the optimal short level. Sizing up broad crypto shorts now.
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Real wipe out event possible.
Would really think it's a great idea to be getting full out crypto - imminently.
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Classic pattern would have us at the end of the bull trap and heading into a puke now.
Spikes above for stop hunts are still a risk. In classic TA, top is in.
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Here's an inlay of the OP and current chart to show where we'd be in the classic TA.
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Super parabolic to the high. High is made first time in the run up. We have a couple sell off legs. Mostly a range in hindsight. Run back to spike out chasey shorts and bring in bulls expecting a breakout - and then yank.
Markets move really really fast in the areas they will reverse and then they stay there for a long time. This is how people end up buying at the highs. That's when you have the time to think about it.
A reversals will then move away so fast there's not time to react.
Typically ending with the same thing. Sheer capitulation into the lows giving no time to think. Then a drawn out bottoming period.
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From a bull's perspective this looks like it has to be GREAT news, but this is very standard in a correction.
parabolic move in the correction - that's ALWAYS the way of it.
Like a correction in a bull move is always a crash. Markets correct faster than they trended. That's the rule.
Usually, they then re-trend harder than they corrected.
...That's where the crash warning is coming from.
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In Elliot, once we know the bottom and top of wave 2 in a downtrend we know where wae 3 should go. Should go to the 220 and then we should spike to around 261 before a bigger bounce.
Here we can map in our entire drop plan if this is wave 2.
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Big waves looking something like this. Note
With the sub waves flagging up the obvious short signal now.
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** One thing to note if this is a big wave 2 as shown in the first version, there might not be the typical pullbacks in this leg. It can just sell strong all the way through. Ranges and baby rallies - building to a crash event.
Wave 3 on this timeframe would be described as "A crash".
Within weeks people would be saying it was a crash.
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Locking in profits with trailing stops now. If the break is coming we should be consistently weak. Otherwise I'd be worried about a spike higher for a bull trap. I'd like to short that if it comes. And I might have the whole thing wrong, so I want to make sure I don't lose twice if I don't have to. Locked in some profits behind local swings highs, waiting to see if it breaks.
Can waterfall if we make a new low for the day.
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