Short

Last chance to short Bitcoin at 16K, another 25% to 50% drop!

Updated

The last 2 weeks i believe the sentiment around Bitcoin has changed a bit. The 50% drop last week has scared some people. Many people ho have been trading with leverage on Alts have been robbed again with the extreme spikes down. But even more important, people around me who have no experience with the stock market at all, but have with the crypto markets the last few months, i only here them talking about the Alt coins, almost nobody talks about Bitcoin. They talk about it, but they dont buy it! And i have seen many people with christmass and they all talk to me about it. They look at ICO's and the small Crypto's with gains of 50 to 100% a day. Bitcoin is not interesting any more for them. Only when it would drop to maybe 5K or so.

In previous analysis i have talked about a few other factors, why Bitcoin will make a big correction.

I thought that 16.000 was the max for this upwards correction, but it has made a small overshoot to 16.500. I am already short between 15.200 and 15950. I announced this when BTC was around 13K. My stop was at 16.600 and 17.200, but if it keeps hanging above the 15.600 the next few hours, than that will show a sigh of strenght and it will probably take out the red resistance line. So i will probably lower my 17.200 stop to 16.600.
My target's are below the 10K but i can adjust if i see new signs.

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dropping on the first small supprt at 15.400, next support at 15.200

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No real bounce up here, probably will loose the fight over 15.200

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Small H&S, to stay weak it has to stay below the 15.500

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Btstamp showed a very big sell order pushing it down 300 points to just below the 15K. within a half minute the rest followed.

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We could see a drop to 14.500/14.600, but now or than, i think it will cool off a bit, go sideways with a max of 15.200 to maybe form a new right shoulder. My long term ( with that i mean days LOL :) it still below the 10K

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i think this will be the last small drop for now,

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Target of the H&S perfectly reached!! Target of the bearish flag also perfectly reached!. Small overshoot, I though 15.550 would be the max for now. It shows the fear in the market!! As i mentioned before, now i expect that it will cool down a bit, go sideways between 14.500 and 15.200, with this price action making a right shoulder of a bigger H&S. But all of this is still within the BIG H&S a posted a week ago! My believe the sentiment is not that strong anymore (on Bitcoin) the last 2 weeks. I believe we will see prices below the 10K again.

BUT i will close my big short positition earlier if i see new signals

Something else, i will stop updating if i wont get more likes. I just feels like an insult :), for again a perfect trade with updates.

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As suspected, trading range between 14.500 and 15.200. It could extend a bit more, but for the negative version a maximum of 15.600

I have added some at 15200

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If it stays within this cirkel, than expect some acceleration downwards after. If not, than this consolidation will take longer and chances increase that it will go towards the 15.500

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It could still drop back in, for more negative sentiment, but chances are bigger it will go sideways and maybe slowely higher,

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It almost looked like the negative sentiment was loosing strenght, but with this drop it's at full power strenght again. The red resistance line worked perfectley! It bounced of several times. It is showing some buying power now around the 13.800, but that will be probably only be short term

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Think were are gonna see some consolidation again. It's is very negative at the moment, so a new big drop is very well possible. I think something like this will happen now, but dont look to much at the red line, this time it's a pure guess.

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I have closed half at 13.650

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It has dropped faster than i thought, it confirmes the negative sentiment now. I do think there is some support now, that's why i have closed half my position, cause i have a very big position from the 15K/16K level. Not taking to much risk with the Bitcoin!!

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If it drops below this triangle, expect low 13K

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Above the red line, probably go back to the 14.500 area

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It is trying to turn up again and make an end to this downward correction, So far no succes, but to stay weak it should drop the coming 24H, even now as you can see in the chart, the pink cirkel, its trying to turn up again, making higher highs and higher lows. The red area is a big resistance now, it already failed to go above this level, showing a sign of selling pressure! The grean area is an important short term support, below this level it could accelerate downwards again!

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The 'long' term chart, this still looks bearish, but there are some signs of strenght. The failed attempt to go higher at the arrow at 16.400 was a very weak signal!. But the other 2 arrows show that drops towards low 13K is seen as a good buy opportunity. Volume is also not decreasing, which shows some strenght. A rise above 15.500 suggests the bearish sentiment is weakening. To stay weak, it should stay below the read area around 14.500

botje11

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