The first part of the forecast seems to have worked out, though the second part has not. BTC has rallied from $18,812 when this forecast was published to a price of $23,362 as of a couple days ago (January 21's intraday peak).
The second part of the forecast seems more tenuous at this point. As noted on the primary chart, "decisive closes above the down TL may mean the corrective rally has more room to run." Several daily closes have occurred above that down TL. This break could be a whipsaw (let's see where the weekly close occurs). The VIX remains at a major support level for both the entire bear market in 2022 (daily chart) and an uptrend support from several years ago (weekly chart). This suggests complacency in a precarious time. Would not be surprised if this is a whipsaw. OR this could be the start of an adjustment to the slope of the downtrend. Downtrends are often redefined by TL breaks (same happens with uptrends). This can redefine the slope somewhat as price consolidates / retraces upwards over a larger time frame.
Going forward, the guiding technical level for this rally is the uptrend line from November 21, 2022, lows. This was made clear in the summary of the original post: "Regardless of one's view (bullish or bearish or neutral) the simple uptrend line from November 21, 2022, lows guides this corrective bounce. When that is broken, expect impulsive movement lower again."
As long as BTC remains above this logarithmic down TL, prices can rally to $25,212 at some point, and if that level is taken, perhaps $30,120.