Bitcoin Party Continues Leaving Alts Behind
Updated
So back again after a small break past weekend where i kept my channels a bit up to date on my thoughts. Were some confusing days with alts not confirming the bullish sentiment and Bitcoin' making some ugly wicks up and down. As if things are not difficult enough already we need to look at those ugly moves :).
Anyway, my last update from me previous analysis:
Bulls are really keeping it here at the high of the resistance now. Also seems the rejections are getting smaller. So starts to feel, my fake breakout might not be that likely. OI is normally still a bit too low, but not that low like 2 weeks ago when i said it's too soon for a rally. So had the same thought as back then, but now less sure about it.
Volume is increasing a bit, which could be the start of something. When zooming out it's still too low, unless when 5300 breaks maybe, and we don't see a short squeeze again, but more like a normal rally. With volume increasing even more, i might be completely off with assuming its too soon to rally. Like i was saying around the 4000 few weeks ago. With the first and then second attempt to break the 4000/4200. Volume can remain low, but with like each 50 point move up, volume needs to keep increasing, with the volume squeezing up when the real breakout begins. That level might be 5400/5500 now.
I just don't know at this point, i kept assuming we might drop, testing at least 5000/5100, but the longer we hang against the high like this, the bigger the chances we really break up.
I talked about the July 2018 rally in my channels a few days ago, telling it was getting more likely to see something similar again. Where alts would stay behind and even drop compared to Bitcoin. Already had some confirmation but today's it's just clear. Of course anything can change again, but i think it's much more likely to see Alts remain weak coming period. I posted another message in my channels today:
Think the July version about alts has been double confirmed today, which is not great for the long term picture. Makes it much more likely for me that we will see a retest of 4K levels (prob low 4K) sooner or later. This would be bullish version. Bearish version, the market will crash again making the past months just a correctional move and nothing more. So where i gave it a decent chance (to leave the Bear market behind us) a month ago or few weeks ago, the bearish movement of the alts have decreased those odds a lot.
The triangle is what i have in mind, based on a fractal i have the past weeks, which has been almost perfect with the waves, just some differences that made it more difficult to follow. This fractal says, we can not drop below today's low anymore. So as long as we stay above it, we could see higher prices coming weeks. If not, fractal is out of play and we need to rethink things again. Will post a new analysis later tonight.
That thick black line on the right, has showed a lot of value past 2 weeks, it's that channel i showed several times past 2 weeks. So we can assume, that if that support line breaks, the bulls who kept buying up each drop to that line, are gone and making it more likely to see a bigger correction happen. Possibly even the end of the rally already. I think it's too soon to think of that, i am still bullish for the coming weeks. So even if we break that black line, there will be a decent chance to find support around 4800/5000. But for now, i am looking at that triangle where we need to see Bitcoin stay inside of it the coming week or so. OI is at a decent level now, increased as explained in that last update i did. So if we see it continue to increase the coming days AND moving inside of the triangle, it will be very likely to see another good push up. Can't guarantee anything of course, or say 99.9999% chances it will happen :), but if we see that combo, of the triangle and OI increasing, i am quite sure of another big push up.
Big picture, if we rally or not short term, for the long term view, i want to see a retest of 3800/4400 level. Ideally we see a max of 4400/4200. Than we will very likely get our answer to the biggest question of 2018/2019, is the bear market over or not. Because if we do find support there and rally again and get above the high we have now, it will be the first time since 2017 that we see a higher low and high. I don't expect those insane returns on alts as in 2017, but alts would have to show more bullish sentiment than the past week. So at least not be clearly weaker than Bitcoin'.
About the triangle, i have drawn it like this, but maybe the support line is the thick black line and not the one i have drawn here. I am following this one but of course will keep a close eye on that black trend line. Also another important factor, volume increased with this rally to 5600, but not yet what it should be. That's why this triangle has to work, to gather strength and than push through all the big resistance levels with big force (and with that, volume). That volume will help is to estimate the next steps.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this, it motivates me to keep you up to date on my thoughts :)
Previous analysis:
Anyway, my last update from me previous analysis:
Bulls are really keeping it here at the high of the resistance now. Also seems the rejections are getting smaller. So starts to feel, my fake breakout might not be that likely. OI is normally still a bit too low, but not that low like 2 weeks ago when i said it's too soon for a rally. So had the same thought as back then, but now less sure about it.
Volume is increasing a bit, which could be the start of something. When zooming out it's still too low, unless when 5300 breaks maybe, and we don't see a short squeeze again, but more like a normal rally. With volume increasing even more, i might be completely off with assuming its too soon to rally. Like i was saying around the 4000 few weeks ago. With the first and then second attempt to break the 4000/4200. Volume can remain low, but with like each 50 point move up, volume needs to keep increasing, with the volume squeezing up when the real breakout begins. That level might be 5400/5500 now.
I just don't know at this point, i kept assuming we might drop, testing at least 5000/5100, but the longer we hang against the high like this, the bigger the chances we really break up.
I talked about the July 2018 rally in my channels a few days ago, telling it was getting more likely to see something similar again. Where alts would stay behind and even drop compared to Bitcoin. Already had some confirmation but today's it's just clear. Of course anything can change again, but i think it's much more likely to see Alts remain weak coming period. I posted another message in my channels today:
Think the July version about alts has been double confirmed today, which is not great for the long term picture. Makes it much more likely for me that we will see a retest of 4K levels (prob low 4K) sooner or later. This would be bullish version. Bearish version, the market will crash again making the past months just a correctional move and nothing more. So where i gave it a decent chance (to leave the Bear market behind us) a month ago or few weeks ago, the bearish movement of the alts have decreased those odds a lot.
The triangle is what i have in mind, based on a fractal i have the past weeks, which has been almost perfect with the waves, just some differences that made it more difficult to follow. This fractal says, we can not drop below today's low anymore. So as long as we stay above it, we could see higher prices coming weeks. If not, fractal is out of play and we need to rethink things again. Will post a new analysis later tonight.
That thick black line on the right, has showed a lot of value past 2 weeks, it's that channel i showed several times past 2 weeks. So we can assume, that if that support line breaks, the bulls who kept buying up each drop to that line, are gone and making it more likely to see a bigger correction happen. Possibly even the end of the rally already. I think it's too soon to think of that, i am still bullish for the coming weeks. So even if we break that black line, there will be a decent chance to find support around 4800/5000. But for now, i am looking at that triangle where we need to see Bitcoin stay inside of it the coming week or so. OI is at a decent level now, increased as explained in that last update i did. So if we see it continue to increase the coming days AND moving inside of the triangle, it will be very likely to see another good push up. Can't guarantee anything of course, or say 99.9999% chances it will happen :), but if we see that combo, of the triangle and OI increasing, i am quite sure of another big push up.
Big picture, if we rally or not short term, for the long term view, i want to see a retest of 3800/4400 level. Ideally we see a max of 4400/4200. Than we will very likely get our answer to the biggest question of 2018/2019, is the bear market over or not. Because if we do find support there and rally again and get above the high we have now, it will be the first time since 2017 that we see a higher low and high. I don't expect those insane returns on alts as in 2017, but alts would have to show more bullish sentiment than the past week. So at least not be clearly weaker than Bitcoin'.
About the triangle, i have drawn it like this, but maybe the support line is the thick black line and not the one i have drawn here. I am following this one but of course will keep a close eye on that black trend line. Also another important factor, volume increased with this rally to 5600, but not yet what it should be. That's why this triangle has to work, to gather strength and than push through all the big resistance levels with big force (and with that, volume). That volume will help is to estimate the next steps.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this, it motivates me to keep you up to date on my thoughts :)
Previous analysis:
Note
This is the July 2018 rally, where we can clearly see the weakness of the altsNote
Short term, we can see this bear flag on the right, attempting to turn into a small inverse H&S, but there is no volume with this push up, so not looking good. Also, saw some big buy spoof orders at Bitmex of 10mil trying to push the price up, which is usually a bearish sign. Sometimes they simply try to push it up instead of pushing it into their sell orders. So another drop is likely on the low time frame, just needs to stay above the 5380ish. Can also see a new big resistance around 5500 now. On the left, we can see the volume of the drop today. Which is a bit worrying since it clearly sticks out of the buying volume. This is why the triangle is so important, because inside a triangle (or flag) it's allowed. If that fails, we could see a quick dump to like 5000 happen.
Note
Those bastards and their F spoofing, illegal in all the markets expect crypto. It's something one can benefit from as well. So as suggested the H&S failed and another drop happened. That channel was a wrong assumption but doesn't change anything. The 5380ish held again and we have a small bounce, but it is loosing strength already. When looking at ETH, it looks like ETH wants to move up again. If that one can create an inverse H&S on the 15m, we could see that the low has been set already. Bitcoin has a first resistance around 5480 and 5500ish right above it as well. So it's so far so good but not out of the clear yet. If we want the triangle to play out, we want to see it reach 5500ish and maybe hang there for many hours before going to the 5600 again. If the market is able to do that, the triangle becomes much more likely to play out.
Note
Still moving inside of a dangerous zone. It turned into a triangle which usually breaks down in this spot, but we have a small push on the upside now, nothing significant yet though. Ideally it stays above the 5430 but a drop to 5400/20 is allowed. Volume is slowly increasing again as well. So the big triangle might play out, but we really need to see a push towards 5500 today, not more room left than that.Note
Might have a game changer here, with this news. Have to say, the panic is not extreme, but can still happen. finance.yahoo.com/news/ny-attorney-general-sues-bitfinex-210643545.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJO2JZIlg0yMYsv-AdMi72SH48xQT2cmZAf_FrFIcMXCXb2BWnrEvYYNRRB26d2xnb4F5RmMKB4k1Cu-oF0KIWxIJu1jIp5AOBqdltm6XdPML79_FitWImqxJrZ0E1s8c5x4WR1-Hi-dUByQulCkayIiRlGOxt5tUsl3Z6HA8ioZ
If this zone breaks, the panic will very likely be over. But after a dump like this, another drop usually happens few hours later or days later. Can be 100 points, can be a lot more, cant judge it now.
Tether is also dropping, not big, like 2% now. If this one dumps, we could see a bitcoin tether pump again like half year ago. When tether crashed and people jumped into crypto because there was no other option for them.
News like this, is exceptional, so this can literary change everything, short and mid-term. Just can't judge how big it is yet. Still need to read the news and try to judge it.
Note
Sorry forgot to push the button the last update, lot going on. Anyway, the resistance is still holding, to the point even. However, OI has increased 55/60 mil already on Bitmex since the low. I saw 472 (maybe it was lower even) and its 529 and increasing each minute. So a lot of buyers already getting in again. It's not exceptional to see it increase, but have not seen it increase this fast and this much. So it might mean something.
Note
Note
So the OI increase clearly meant something, with touching even 5280 after such a panic sell with the bad news we had yesterday. For now, this channel on the right is a good guideline. If it moves inside of it, it could indicate some accumulation. Will write a new analysis to try and explain some more. 5300ish is the key level to get out of this mess
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