About Bitcoin - Did we just get exactly what we needed?
Updated
We’ll look at the weekly timeframe checkout where BTC closed last week and what it means. We’ll also look at the daily timeframe and check out the healthy and unhealthy levels. In short, during a pullback, there are places BTC can go down to and can still be considered part of a healthy recovery and places where if it goes there it is lights out and we're back to sliding further down. Don't forget to Boost this idea.
Looking at the daily timeframe above, Bitcoin needs to pull back a bit but there are levels we can go and levels we can't. It will be ok for BTC to pull back to $21,800, $19,700, or $18,800 but we have to go back to 23k and above before the weekly candle closes on Sunday. Falling below the range (The black box) is not a good move, it will mean lights out and a bad tumble down could be imminent.
Looking at the weekly timeframe below BTC created the best-case scenario last week, it generated a much-needed red candle without going under the new support line (thick white descending line). We now have the possibility of seeing a green candle this week that can take us from 23k to 26 or 27k. If this happens and we manage to stay at those levels then recovery has truly started. We can also range sideways which will be perfectly fine, last week's red candle has bought us time and flexibility. Now, what happens if this new weekly candle closes below the white descending line? We can still move up but the odds of going down grow and the odds of moving up diminish exponentially, If this month long move upward fails we could see quite a tumble back down.
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On the lines-only chart, we can see that the golden cross of the 200MA (white line) and 50MA (yellow line) it's a done deal. It should be completed by Tuesday, the 7th. Once we are done here we're waiting for the golden cross of the 100MA and 200MA which should be done by May. Why are we waiting for these events and what does it mean? Historically when all color lines (moving averages) are lined up above the white line a long period of significant gains follows. The way I see this playing out in 2023 is that we'll see a few good times and a lot of sideways movement, mostly this will be a year of recovery and stabilization. Now, the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 should lead to irrational exuberance, which is when you want to sell and go on vacation for the next 2 years.
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I’ll update this post as the week's events unfold.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Boost" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Looking at the daily timeframe above, Bitcoin needs to pull back a bit but there are levels we can go and levels we can't. It will be ok for BTC to pull back to $21,800, $19,700, or $18,800 but we have to go back to 23k and above before the weekly candle closes on Sunday. Falling below the range (The black box) is not a good move, it will mean lights out and a bad tumble down could be imminent.
Looking at the weekly timeframe below BTC created the best-case scenario last week, it generated a much-needed red candle without going under the new support line (thick white descending line). We now have the possibility of seeing a green candle this week that can take us from 23k to 26 or 27k. If this happens and we manage to stay at those levels then recovery has truly started. We can also range sideways which will be perfectly fine, last week's red candle has bought us time and flexibility. Now, what happens if this new weekly candle closes below the white descending line? We can still move up but the odds of going down grow and the odds of moving up diminish exponentially, If this month long move upward fails we could see quite a tumble back down.
[img]
On the lines-only chart, we can see that the golden cross of the 200MA (white line) and 50MA (yellow line) it's a done deal. It should be completed by Tuesday, the 7th. Once we are done here we're waiting for the golden cross of the 100MA and 200MA which should be done by May. Why are we waiting for these events and what does it mean? Historically when all color lines (moving averages) are lined up above the white line a long period of significant gains follows. The way I see this playing out in 2023 is that we'll see a few good times and a lot of sideways movement, mostly this will be a year of recovery and stabilization. Now, the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 should lead to irrational exuberance, which is when you want to sell and go on vacation for the next 2 years.
[img]
I’ll update this post as the week's events unfold.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Boost" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Note
[img]Let's talk about golden and death crosses
To be clear they do not have a direct effect on price, they are merely an indicator of how far an asset has come. On the Daily timeframe, we have a golden cross, while on the weekly we have a death cross. Keep in mind the daily time frame is faster moving and the weekly is a bit slower. The golden cross on the daily indicates that we have been going up for so long (since Jan 1st) that the faster 50MA is moving above the slower 200MA. The death cross on the weekly indicates that we've been going down for so long (since November 2021) that the faster 50MA is going under the slower 200MA. In this case, we look at this scenario as positive since we are currently moving up. It can all go downhill but currently, the sentiment is cautiously positive. When will it look good? When BTC goes above the 200MA on the weekly timeframe.
Note
So, we are here. Now, we need to keep a close eye to see if we start to bounce up or continue to drop to the next level. It doesn't matter how far we drop before Sunday, but by Sunday, we need to be around $22,500. The weekly candle can not close below the trendline. [img]
Note
Update: March 12, 2023 As you can see this idea has matured very, very well. We did hit the 200MA (which was the best scenario) as indicated above and are currently bouncing from there.
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