Bitcoin – 3 cycle overlays
Updated
Here I present a study of the current BTC halving cycle, overlayed with the previous two halving cycles. I admit the idea for the overlay is not original, and comes from a prior work I saw from TradingShot a few months back.
However, let me explain what you are seeing. It is the current weekly Bitcoin candlestick chart, with a copy of the first halving cycle (Blue) and the second halving cycle (brown) centred on the most recent halving (the week of May 11, 2020). Then I have drawn trendlines through some of the most interesting elements of each of the past cycles, being:
• The cycle high
• The cycle low
• The Mid-rally High
• The Mid-rally Low
What is really interesting is that the Mid-rally High trendline intersects the wave 5 peak of the current mid-cycle high. I know that there was, in fact, a higher peak a few weeks later than the peak I have circled, but in my Elliott Wave analysis, that second peak was actually a Wave B high in an irregular 3-3-5 correction, as I presented in a previous study. So for me, this is cause to pay greater attention.
The next priority line is the Mid-rally Low trendline that intersects the two prior lows of the mid-rally correction that occurred. If the low of the current mid-rally correction is to touch this line, then it could indicate that the low for this current correction is yet to occur.
Do you think there might be any relevance in these trendlines?
If there is a deeper correction that intersects that Mid-rally Low trendline, then I will certainly be looking very intently at the other trendlines.
However, let me explain what you are seeing. It is the current weekly Bitcoin candlestick chart, with a copy of the first halving cycle (Blue) and the second halving cycle (brown) centred on the most recent halving (the week of May 11, 2020). Then I have drawn trendlines through some of the most interesting elements of each of the past cycles, being:
• The cycle high
• The cycle low
• The Mid-rally High
• The Mid-rally Low
What is really interesting is that the Mid-rally High trendline intersects the wave 5 peak of the current mid-cycle high. I know that there was, in fact, a higher peak a few weeks later than the peak I have circled, but in my Elliott Wave analysis, that second peak was actually a Wave B high in an irregular 3-3-5 correction, as I presented in a previous study. So for me, this is cause to pay greater attention.
The next priority line is the Mid-rally Low trendline that intersects the two prior lows of the mid-rally correction that occurred. If the low of the current mid-rally correction is to touch this line, then it could indicate that the low for this current correction is yet to occur.
Do you think there might be any relevance in these trendlines?
If there is a deeper correction that intersects that Mid-rally Low trendline, then I will certainly be looking very intently at the other trendlines.
Note
Actually, the Mid-rally Low trendline is incorrect and does not originate at the low. I've updated it here:
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