★RSI 45★ - The Goldilocks Zone of Accumulation for Bitcoin
Updated
Since its all time high of USD 69,000 in November 2021 Bitcon has lost nearly 55% of its value, cooling off from a tremendous Bull run that lasted nearly 2 years from November 2019 in which cryptos favorite coin rallied +800%.
Strong rallies to all time highs are not uncommon in this space and within this name. From August 2016 to Dec 2017 Bitcoin rallied an eye poping +2000% to 20K in a Bull Run that many beleive put the coin on the main stage of financial markets and is responsible for its widespread popularity.
I beleive the next few months will prove to be a period of accumulation in which BTC will be quitely gathering volume, reducing volitility and ultimately preparing for its next bull run into the 2024 Halving, upon which many believe the price will rip through the 6 figure mark.
The chart represents a crude depiction of how the 45 Level on the RSI has acted like a ground floor for the asset since 2015 and is an area in which accumulation has historically took place. As of today the 1 month chart reflects an RSI reading of 47.77, nearing this historically key level again after the crypto market sustains a beating for the entirety of this year.
I will be watching this chart closely. If Price Action truly respecst this level and tapers off volitility I will likely be engaging in bi-weekly purcases of the coin for about 5-6 months in an effort to prepare for another multi-year Bull Run.
Strong rallies to all time highs are not uncommon in this space and within this name. From August 2016 to Dec 2017 Bitcoin rallied an eye poping +2000% to 20K in a Bull Run that many beleive put the coin on the main stage of financial markets and is responsible for its widespread popularity.
I beleive the next few months will prove to be a period of accumulation in which BTC will be quitely gathering volume, reducing volitility and ultimately preparing for its next bull run into the 2024 Halving, upon which many believe the price will rip through the 6 figure mark.
The chart represents a crude depiction of how the 45 Level on the RSI has acted like a ground floor for the asset since 2015 and is an area in which accumulation has historically took place. As of today the 1 month chart reflects an RSI reading of 47.77, nearing this historically key level again after the crypto market sustains a beating for the entirety of this year.
I will be watching this chart closely. If Price Action truly respecst this level and tapers off volitility I will likely be engaging in bi-weekly purcases of the coin for about 5-6 months in an effort to prepare for another multi-year Bull Run.
Note
Just about 5 months since I posted this idea. Here are my thoughts and feelings since then:1. I was way off with respects to the accumulation price zone however I’m somewhat accurate on the RSI as over the last few months we have bounced within the 40-45 level accordingly.
2. Whilst Bitcoin does hold its own fundamental profile and catalysts we cannot deny and must consider that the participants in the Bitcoin of today are nothing like the participants in the Bitcoin of 2016/2019.
Today we have multiple Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin Futures Contracts and even Bitcoin Mutual Funds that you can put into your 401K. All of this capital brings the correlation of Bitcoin closer and closer to that of the broader markets which should be considered when attempting to forecast any future price movement. The fact of the matter is that the days of Bitcoin being an uncorrelated asset or hedge against inflation are long gone and as global markets continue to fall as a result of record inflation its hard to imagine a bull run in Bitcoin beginning until inflation is under control.
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