Bitcoin's Next Bull Market Cycle
Hi everyone,
Thank you for considering reading my idea. Please note that this is just my opinion and is just a rough pattern. It can be invalidated easily.
This chart assumes 64K as the peak on April 2021 even though we created a new ATH at 69k. Please see related idea why I think that.
In the chart, there are 3 colors highlighted:
1. Stop (Red) - After a top, we tend to crash, bounce off the 50 week moving average (yellow line), break down the 50 week moving average, then touch the 200 week moving average (green line).
2. Ready (Orange) - After a bottom at 200 week moving average (green line), we tend to go up before we reach the Bitcoin Halving (white broken vertical line).
3. Go! (Green) - After the Bitcoin Halving, this is when Bitcoin starts to go parabolic and reach the peak.
Where are we now?
In my opinion, we are in the red area. We bounced off the 50 week moving average back in July and September 2021 but eventually broke down off it on January 2022. We can stay in the red area for an average of 308 days [(154 + 406 + 364) / 3] starting from the peak.
What to expect next?
I expect the price of Bitcoin to at least touch the 200 week moving average currently at $20,000 but may go higher over time. Possibly we could touch it at around $23,000. Note that we don't know yet when to expect the bottom so the red area may adjust. We can stay in the orange area for an average of 483 days [(378 + 546 + 525) / 3] starting from the end of the red area.
What happens after the bottom?
We go to the orange area. The orange area may adjust depending when we get the 200 week moving average bottom. I think this is the good time to really buy Bitcoin.
When is the peak?
Historically, it took between 336-518 days before we reach the peak. If we were to start counting from the 4th Halving, it estimates Bitcoin to peak between February-August 2025.
At what price?
This chart unfortunately does not estimate the next peak but you can see use other models what is the price of Bitcoin by Feb-Aug 2025.
Please note that this is just a pattern and can be invalidated easily.
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more ideas like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers,
Juvs
Thank you for considering reading my idea. Please note that this is just my opinion and is just a rough pattern. It can be invalidated easily.
This chart assumes 64K as the peak on April 2021 even though we created a new ATH at 69k. Please see related idea why I think that.
In the chart, there are 3 colors highlighted:
1. Stop (Red) - After a top, we tend to crash, bounce off the 50 week moving average (yellow line), break down the 50 week moving average, then touch the 200 week moving average (green line).
2. Ready (Orange) - After a bottom at 200 week moving average (green line), we tend to go up before we reach the Bitcoin Halving (white broken vertical line).
3. Go! (Green) - After the Bitcoin Halving, this is when Bitcoin starts to go parabolic and reach the peak.
Where are we now?
In my opinion, we are in the red area. We bounced off the 50 week moving average back in July and September 2021 but eventually broke down off it on January 2022. We can stay in the red area for an average of 308 days [(154 + 406 + 364) / 3] starting from the peak.
What to expect next?
I expect the price of Bitcoin to at least touch the 200 week moving average currently at $20,000 but may go higher over time. Possibly we could touch it at around $23,000. Note that we don't know yet when to expect the bottom so the red area may adjust. We can stay in the orange area for an average of 483 days [(378 + 546 + 525) / 3] starting from the end of the red area.
What happens after the bottom?
We go to the orange area. The orange area may adjust depending when we get the 200 week moving average bottom. I think this is the good time to really buy Bitcoin.
When is the peak?
Historically, it took between 336-518 days before we reach the peak. If we were to start counting from the 4th Halving, it estimates Bitcoin to peak between February-August 2025.
At what price?
This chart unfortunately does not estimate the next peak but you can see use other models what is the price of Bitcoin by Feb-Aug 2025.
Please note that this is just a pattern and can be invalidated easily.
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more ideas like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers,
Juvs
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.