Bitcoin: Bears Are Active 35K.
Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of exhaustion around the 35K resistance area. A failed high can potentially develop here which can lead to a retest of the 32K support AREA over the coming week. This activity should not be too surprising since it appears to be motivated by rumors rather than reality.
People love throwing around opinions and pointing to explanations (human nature again). That's great if you consider the financial markets as a form of entertainment. If you are interested in making money and managing risk, then you should only be concerned with probabilities, not opinions.
In this situation the conservative trader would WAIT for the retrace into the support area. From there look for a price action setup and confirmation for a new long. This means WAITING for the 33 to 32K area test followed by a reversal pattern. The broader price structure is still bullish which means probabilities still favor the long side (assuming a test of support).
The aggressive trader would be considering short setups on smaller time frames off the 35K resistance anticipating the pull back. While this is plausible at such levels, going counter trend requires keeping expectations LOW since probability generally favors buying.
Confused? Then just stay out. Having a strict set of rules solves this problem because either the criteria is met or it is not. This is where bots (like my trade scanner) shine.
Since I don't short Bitcoin, the conservative scenario is the one I wait for.
It is also important not to get swayed by general sentiment. The previous week gave us some market optimism by implying rates will have to pause or be cut. Keep in mind, like Bitcoin was motivated by fake news apparently, markets can also be temporarily affected by perceptions of the future. Short term movements (especially ones that do not have any significant changes on the broader structure) are likely to be temporary reactions. It is best to think of them this way UNTIL they prove otherwise. A couple of green candles on the 10 Year note futures do NOT confirm a new bullish trend.
Markets are RANDOM for the most part. If you are focusing on anything but weighing probabilities, you have yet to realize that chances are an ALGO is on the other side of your trades. Algos are the equivalent of RATIONAL traders/investors which makes for an efficient market. You can't beat efficient markets via conventional means.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
People love throwing around opinions and pointing to explanations (human nature again). That's great if you consider the financial markets as a form of entertainment. If you are interested in making money and managing risk, then you should only be concerned with probabilities, not opinions.
In this situation the conservative trader would WAIT for the retrace into the support area. From there look for a price action setup and confirmation for a new long. This means WAITING for the 33 to 32K area test followed by a reversal pattern. The broader price structure is still bullish which means probabilities still favor the long side (assuming a test of support).
The aggressive trader would be considering short setups on smaller time frames off the 35K resistance anticipating the pull back. While this is plausible at such levels, going counter trend requires keeping expectations LOW since probability generally favors buying.
Confused? Then just stay out. Having a strict set of rules solves this problem because either the criteria is met or it is not. This is where bots (like my trade scanner) shine.
Since I don't short Bitcoin, the conservative scenario is the one I wait for.
It is also important not to get swayed by general sentiment. The previous week gave us some market optimism by implying rates will have to pause or be cut. Keep in mind, like Bitcoin was motivated by fake news apparently, markets can also be temporarily affected by perceptions of the future. Short term movements (especially ones that do not have any significant changes on the broader structure) are likely to be temporary reactions. It is best to think of them this way UNTIL they prove otherwise. A couple of green candles on the 10 Year note futures do NOT confirm a new bullish trend.
Markets are RANDOM for the most part. If you are focusing on anything but weighing probabilities, you have yet to realize that chances are an ALGO is on the other side of your trades. Algos are the equivalent of RATIONAL traders/investors which makes for an efficient market. You can't beat efficient markets via conventional means.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
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