The great unknown. When is the next bull market?
The crypto market has never experienced a rapid rise in interest rates, stagflation or recession. It can be said that crypto is even the child of low interest rates and strong economic growth.
The current situation could be a test for the entire market; who will stay afloat and who will drown; whether BTC counts as a commodity, an asset, a currency, or something entirely new.
In March 2021 I told all my friends who invest in cryptocurrencies, that BTC would soon fall around the $34,000.
At that time, I used three information to determine the peak and the minimum range of the correction.
LONG STORY; SHORT STORY
The price rebounded from 28000, breaking out a new ATH, thus creating a false break. Then, over time, BTC reverted back to bearish sentiment as it fell from $69000 to 53000.
Currently, the price is at the N-wave range of the downtrend and the 2017 peak. The ichimoku lines on W1/MN1/Q1 are far from the price.
I see 3 options:
As long as the price stays above $19000, I will insist on option 1. If the price knocks out 35000-40000 by the end of the year and stays there, I will start looking towards option 3.
In the very long term, I see BTC above $100000 and, at some point, the collapse of 90% of crypto projects, just as we saw with the .com crisis of 2000-2002.
The current situation could be a test for the entire market; who will stay afloat and who will drown; whether BTC counts as a commodity, an asset, a currency, or something entirely new.
In March 2021 I told all my friends who invest in cryptocurrencies, that BTC would soon fall around the $34,000.
At that time, I used three information to determine the peak and the minimum range of the correction.
- The N-waves since March 2020 determined the ranges. The highest point was around $90000, and the most likely point was around $60000.
- The $60000 was most likely due to Elon Musk's 'pumping' of the price and other similar news related to the acceptance of BTC payments. This caused the price to rise strongly and move away from the ichimoku lines, which normally hold close to the price. This helped me conclude that the price is unnaturally high and a correction is coming soon.
- The movement of the price away from the line, helped me establish a correction target, where the first one was the kijun line on the MN1 interval, at a price of $31,000.
LONG STORY; SHORT STORY
The price rebounded from 28000, breaking out a new ATH, thus creating a false break. Then, over time, BTC reverted back to bearish sentiment as it fell from $69000 to 53000.
Currently, the price is at the N-wave range of the downtrend and the 2017 peak. The ichimoku lines on W1/MN1/Q1 are far from the price.
I see 3 options:
- The price will move towards the approximation of the lines, thus creating another correction in the downtrend. This will determine the next N-wave and downward ranges. Potential places to stop the correction are around: 25000, 32000 and 35000.
- The price will continue to fall as long as interest rates in the US are rising. Target: the 10000 area.
- The current support will push BTC towards another bull market, proving that BTC is an anti-inflation, anti-crisis asset.
As long as the price stays above $19000, I will insist on option 1. If the price knocks out 35000-40000 by the end of the year and stays there, I will start looking towards option 3.
In the very long term, I see BTC above $100000 and, at some point, the collapse of 90% of crypto projects, just as we saw with the .com crisis of 2000-2002.
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