Bitcoin is Giving away it's bullish momentum

Updated

Welcome to Bitcoin' and triangle movements, one day looking so bullish and few days later looking so bearish and back again. This pingpong behavior has been going on for a few months now. Bears get out of hiding when the downside gets tested and the bulls show up when the upside gets tested. In the meantime it's just the exchanges that earn real money, even though volume dropped a lot so i can't imagine their to happy about this either. This was my biggest fear for a month or 2 now, just keep moving sideways and keep getting those bear/bull traps all the time.

The bullish formations in Bitcoin' are still in play, but the fact that we keep hanging around the 6300 low is a very bad sign. That blue trend line on the left is still valid and has been tested a lot the past 5 days (blue circle), but the bounces have been pretty weak so far. This shows there is no strength at all in the market. So objectively this is a short play, but we all know that things are not that easy with Bitcoin' and it's fake moves all the time. It has been moving inside of a small triangle since yesterday, between 6320 and 6250. So a break of this triangle might give us more clarity on the next move. Yesterday i said the bulls need to push it above the 6350, which the bulls tried for several hours but kept falling short just below it and we dropped to the 6250. So for now we have some clear levels for the bulls to break, that's the 6320, 6350 and the 6420. For the bears it's the 6270 and 6200ish level. Below the 6200 we could see the 6100 getting retested.

I want to say that if the 6100 breaks we might drop a whole lot more, but how many times has that happens the past months. Simply seems like that support zone just can not be broken. So whatever you do, don't be stubborn and think: Yesssssss, finallyyyy, this time we will make that crash. Same goes for the bulls of course! Just stay objective and don't get caught up on everything you read, just look at the chart and the technical, keeps you more objective and less emotional.

Me and my members have not been trading Bitcoin' lately, we did that long trade 2 weeks ago at 6300 from when we rallied from the 6200 to the 6600. But a long time before that trade and since, we just keep watching it. We have been looking more at alts since they move more than Bitcoin' does. They show more clearer patterns and sometimes they even move independent from Bitcoin'. The past 2 months are moment where a trader can loos confidence when the focus is only on Bitcoin' and all it's fake moves. Loosing confidence is the most precious thing you have when trading markets. You can have all the money in the world, but trading without confidence (which makes you emotional) you will loose guaranteed, because you let fear and hope make the decisions for you. This happens in all the markets, stocks or FX or whatever. There are always moments where you should not touch an asset (too much).

I can write a whole story again about the OTC volume accumulating outside of the exchanges, but i have talked about this several times now in my analysis so i won't do it this time. Because nobody can really give reliable information about this. However, i do think it is important though, because i have suggested the 2 months that maybe the price is being held down at these levels so the OTC trading can continue for these 6K prices. But that's just a theory, so i do suggest you do research about this if your serious. Feel free to share your findings about this and who knows, maybe we can figure out some real facts.

My view now is as neutral as it gets. A break of 6320 or 6270 will probably push me slightly towards the bull or bear side. A break of the higher low formation (6200) should be a big sell signal.

Please don't forget to give a like if you appreciate this, i would appreciate the support :)

Previous analysis:

Bitcoin Closing in Decision Point, Break and Bounce from Support

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Bulls are trying to break the triangle on the upside now and on the left Bitfinex broke the neckline of that inverse H&S. But be aware, for Bitfinex it's mostly because Tether keeps dropping. So it's difficult to value this upward move there.

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What looked like a breakout was just another fake move, now it dropped below that triangle and made a small drop so far. The target is around 6220, which has not been reached yet. At the moment we can see the bulls trying to push it back in again and from the looks of it they might succeed.

This last drop did cause alts to drop more than they did the past days, which is a bad sign normally. But seeing Bitcoin getting pushed up again as i am writing this. But alts really need to improve for Bitcoin to get higher. First real level to break is the 6320, has been since yesterday

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Moving from one wedge to the other. Bitfinex shows a possible bearish wedge but still above the big bullish wedge (blue lines) while on the right we see a bullish wedge

Tether just keeps on dropping. This is really becoming a coin toss though. Really not confident in saying which way it will go, based on bitcoin i would say up but the alts tell me we will drop, son confusion at it's best

While i am writing this bitcoin just dropped to 6240ish make another new low. But OI is still increasing, all the alts that took hits earlier today have not moved this drop.

Even when ignoring all of the above, what makes me wonder the most, we have had several attempts of bears to push the market down, but each time it's a small 50/60 point drop, even breaking lows and supports but still it just moves up again. This usually says something else is going on. This does confirm the bullish wedge pattern btw

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Don't forget to check out my FX trades,

I posted 6 today and yesterday, all in profit, some even reached targets. Don't stare blindly on crypto if your a serious trader. There is more and even more important, it's more fun and relaxing :)

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Seems that the wedge of Bitfinex was the real one to watch, since the drop is something we see with a wedge. Unfortunate i have chosen to watch the USD exchanges since a month that Tether has been acting weird.

Alts got big dumps this time and it seems that they showed the way once again. When looking at the chart we are closing in on that big support line/zone around 6100, a level where we have seen many lows the past few months.

Most alts i am watching (top 10/20) are still above October highs so there is a chance we stay in the Bitcoin range of 6100/6800, but there is no bounce up to be seen yet, indicating more drops to come.

Open Intrest on Bitmex has barely dropped, showing there are still many buyers not scared yet, maybe thinking the 6100ish range/support will play. But the OI level is still high, so a big crash is possible. If we see liqs start, it could mean a 400/500 point drop. During big moves OI on Mex usually drops to around 600 mil and from what i have seen, usually is like a 500 point move. So either we see very brave bulls buying here who will loose, or these people know what they are doing.

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Some guidelines to watch. If bitcoin can get above those red resistance zone and break that trend line, there is a chance that a low might be set, in combination with that green support line. But we need to see it happening with some aggressive buying, otherwise it will just be another correction up before moving down again

If they can turn the 1H candle into a green hammer (on the right) would be a start and break that trend line on the left.

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OI on Mex only dropped from 830 to 780, where during big moves it usually drops to 600 mil. So there are still many buyers here, but it could also mean it can drop much more. The liqs are still coming on Mex. I said a 500 point move, could be much more if the panic really kicks in. I think that even if this is that big V shape low, there will always be a second chance, so i would not try to catch this falling knife now!

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Feb low, V shape. Just a reminder, shows several chances. I see nothing yet to go on, but the first small bounce just happend

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Alts have made much better bounces that Bitcoin has, while BTC made a low most made a higher low and have been moving up since. Could be the start of the low. Still a very big chance the low will get tested again later today, unless we see a big move towards the 6000, which would be in other words, a small V shape!

OI is dropping slowly with a slow moving Bitcoin. Assuming the OI volume is an average of the total volume, it would show that part of the buying volume is shorts closing. Rather see more buying AND see it happen faster before thinking the low is set.

if it stays above the 5650ish, we could see another wave up.

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Dropped to the low again, if it breaks i have a scenario for that in my channel already, but if it bounces up and moves like that red line, it could make a triangle. That drop could be the final blow for the coming hours/days at least.

So the triangle is only in play if we see a clear lower high happening.

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Bitfinex has been dropping much more the last minutes even though Tether is also dropping. Bad news!
Update on the chart.

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Triangles at the Altcoins, breakout can be on both sides. Buying volume at Mex has increased a lot the past 15 min, first time during the whole drop. Doesn't mean the low is set, but increases the chances of course

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Buying volume increased a lot the past 20 min, but the 10 mil liqs on Bitmex are still coming though. It looked like a temp low has been set, but maybe another test of 6250. Price above 6450/6500 could mean the low for at least the coming period is set

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I just have to show this one :) proof is in my channel if you don't believe me.

New plan, bigger wedge that turns into an inverse H&S, if we see movement like this i will try to catch the low with half a position and increase on the way up

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Have a important moment here. There is chance for an inverse H&S here, but those chances are not that big. Only way to succeed is a very high volume break of the first neckline. Alts are a bit weak at the moment, so chances are bigger we follow one of the 2 red lines.
- making a higher low for another correctional wave up
- simply make another dump

Alts are much weaker as they were an hour ago, so not great from that side. So only a good strong rally to break the 5600ish would work

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Alts have been dumping again, earlier they were stronger than Bitcoin now they are getting weaker. Indicates they might be be going for a new low. Tether is moving up as well putting pressure on Bitfinex, USD Bitcoin is also dropping now. So we could be testing the low again later today. Bulls had the chance earlier, but it's clearly much too weak.

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We might say the low has been tested already, but i think we need one last wave down to MAYBE complete this drop. Think we might go towards the 5100.
If we break the current bear flag to the upside, maybe another game plan is going one, but probably will break below it.

OI on Bitmex has dropped to even 520 mil, have not seen it that low in a long time now.

Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing. I will try to make a new analysis later today.

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Open long have been increasing a lot the past 24 hours, which is a good sign. It is a start, showing some interest.

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Target of the bear flag i mentioned above has been reached, think we might go sideways again and prepare for possibly one more wave down before a bigger correction up happens

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A reversal attempt is being made here, above 6500 could mean the low is set, at least for the coming days!

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6500 is 5500 :)

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if they push above it, we could even go towards the 5700/5800, but has to happen withing minutes!

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New Bitcoin analysis:

Bitcoin Finally Showed it's Hand, Volatility is Back :)

botje11

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