Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200? Part 4
Updated
Making a new one here since the updates have become too many in the previous analysis. My general view for the last view days was, making a good solid correction and/or consolidation of the rally from the 3200. But the past 24 hours it starting to look like the alt coins don't want to wait so long, so things have become confusing at the moment for the short term. I honestly don't know what the next step will be. When zooming out, we get a more objective view of things and they say it is much too soon for a rally. We broke the upwards trend channel, so what we normally should see after a strong rally like we had the past week:
1) is a big bull flag with the lows close to each other (which means another drop around the 3750/3800), like the red line
2) a triangle, so making a higher low, like the blue line.
3) a bullish wedge, which we is not in play anymore since we broke the 3900/50
I see some people comparing this stage with the orange circle we can see on the left, but IMO that is a wrong assumption. The rally we had was much bigger and stronger and much more volume as well. So we could make a drop from here (which i think would be best for the market as well for the longer term), but i would not assume that the bear market is taking over again. Next to that, alt coins are in much better shape than 3 weeks ago.
The current situation starting to look a lot like the April rally. The 7900/8300 zone we were in for a week or so. Because i remember getting mixed signals back than as well, because Bitcoin' was not that convincing AND i was waiting for a healthy correction towards 7500, but the market was too eager to let it drop that much. But more importantly, alt coins were pumping during that whole sideways period of Bitcoin', which is quite similar to what we are seeing here.
For the short term, 2 hours ago we broke the 4020 range but after touching the 4050 and forming a decent bull flag, we have already dropped again to the 4000 which has taken away most of the bullish momentum we had. The 3950 seems to be an important support level for now. If we break that one, we could be following the blue or red line scenario. Bigger picture, the 4030/4080 resistance zone i kept mentioning has till not been broken. For me that is the level which the bulls need to break to make a continuation of the rally much more likely. Of course the 4150/4200 is the real level, but from my experience, the 4080 (4100) is already the level to break. If we do go up, there is a also a possibility (the triangle) that we get rejected again from the 4150/4200. Than it would be very likely to see a higher low getting formed around the 3950.
So in general, i don't know what will happen on the short term, i thought we would turn down again after the 3950 yesterday and test support again. But now things have changed a bit. We can still make that drop, which would fit the big bull flag picture. But a break of 4100ish will probably change that as well. If we do move up from here, the blue line on the left could also be a very realistic scenario, making a good inverse H&S with a horizontal neckline, which are by far the best H&S patterns you can have. So short term i would say, sit and wait for things to play out.
My mid-term view is still the same and has not changed, still waiting for the second leg up. Only thing that has changed, i don't want to see it below the 3700ish anymore. This because this leg up went too 4050 instead of 3900/3950. So i don't want to see a 450 point drop to 3600ish anymore. For the long term that would not be bad, to test the 3400/3600, to form a long term low. But my whole assumption since last week, is a big correctional rally from the 6K dump we had. So rather see bull hold ground a bit more, like we did in the April rally and the July rally.
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Previous analysis:
1) is a big bull flag with the lows close to each other (which means another drop around the 3750/3800), like the red line
2) a triangle, so making a higher low, like the blue line.
3) a bullish wedge, which we is not in play anymore since we broke the 3900/50
I see some people comparing this stage with the orange circle we can see on the left, but IMO that is a wrong assumption. The rally we had was much bigger and stronger and much more volume as well. So we could make a drop from here (which i think would be best for the market as well for the longer term), but i would not assume that the bear market is taking over again. Next to that, alt coins are in much better shape than 3 weeks ago.
The current situation starting to look a lot like the April rally. The 7900/8300 zone we were in for a week or so. Because i remember getting mixed signals back than as well, because Bitcoin' was not that convincing AND i was waiting for a healthy correction towards 7500, but the market was too eager to let it drop that much. But more importantly, alt coins were pumping during that whole sideways period of Bitcoin', which is quite similar to what we are seeing here.
For the short term, 2 hours ago we broke the 4020 range but after touching the 4050 and forming a decent bull flag, we have already dropped again to the 4000 which has taken away most of the bullish momentum we had. The 3950 seems to be an important support level for now. If we break that one, we could be following the blue or red line scenario. Bigger picture, the 4030/4080 resistance zone i kept mentioning has till not been broken. For me that is the level which the bulls need to break to make a continuation of the rally much more likely. Of course the 4150/4200 is the real level, but from my experience, the 4080 (4100) is already the level to break. If we do go up, there is a also a possibility (the triangle) that we get rejected again from the 4150/4200. Than it would be very likely to see a higher low getting formed around the 3950.
So in general, i don't know what will happen on the short term, i thought we would turn down again after the 3950 yesterday and test support again. But now things have changed a bit. We can still make that drop, which would fit the big bull flag picture. But a break of 4100ish will probably change that as well. If we do move up from here, the blue line on the left could also be a very realistic scenario, making a good inverse H&S with a horizontal neckline, which are by far the best H&S patterns you can have. So short term i would say, sit and wait for things to play out.
My mid-term view is still the same and has not changed, still waiting for the second leg up. Only thing that has changed, i don't want to see it below the 3700ish anymore. This because this leg up went too 4050 instead of 3900/3950. So i don't want to see a 450 point drop to 3600ish anymore. For the long term that would not be bad, to test the 3400/3600, to form a long term low. But my whole assumption since last week, is a big correctional rally from the 6K dump we had. So rather see bull hold ground a bit more, like we did in the April rally and the July rally.
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Previous analysis:
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Don't forget to look at the last few updates of my previous analysisNote
Just back home and seeing that after that drop we bounced a bit again but nothing strong. OI is dropping again which is not a good sign on it's self. On the right we can see a possible wedge, i am not liking the shape but the short squeeze we had yesterday, is a decent indication. We see a wedge form many times after squeezes happen.
At the moment we just made a small bounce of what seems to be the last support between 39xx prices and the low 38xx prices. When looking at the bigger picture, my assumption that a rally is too soon, i would say a drop is more likely.
That low OI is bugging me, the name is open interest, so saying there is not interest at the current price.
On the left we can see the big support zone around 3800, which would be the ideal spot to find support again. But assuming the market wants to shake out longs and get the price back down again, we might be breaking that one as well. The blue zone around 3700 would be the ideal spot. Preventing a drop to 3600ish, so showing bulls are ready to step up again.
Even if we make a small bounce here, if price starts to slow down below the 3970, it could mean another low and a acceleration down
Bullish side, obviously the 3990/4000 is a level to brake now, but if we see a strong bounce above 4050 even, it could become very bullish.
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So price slowed down at exactly 3970 and it started to drop. testing the previous low. So far a decent bounce, but now we could find resistance around 3950/60 and make another lower high. So we will probably make a quick drop to the low 38xx, unless we can break the 3950/60, that could prevent it. Note
Okay, so i underestimated the will of this market. Just broke the previous high and are making a bull flag above it. If it can stay above the 4140ish the next half hour or so, we could see another rally. Current bull flag would say 4400, another pattern says 4300. Alts are doing okay as well, some very good, a few a bit hesitant. I have grabbed on to the Feb rally as well and the April rally. Just trying to find some guidelines, since i am not sure how this can play out. Both say more upwards movement. So assuming the current bull flag plays out, we could see one of these. If i would have to bet, i would say the Feb rally. What i also showed in my primary chart on the right. Going towards 4300/4400 (bitmex price) and maybe then make the right shoulder of the bigger inverse H&S.
It could be the right shoulder has already been made and this is the break of the neckline, i just think it's a bit too small in size and time. That's why the Feb version would be be better, since that rally was stronger as well. Because the consolidation (right shoulder zone) after the first wave was much bigger
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Look at these alt coins, just no stopping them. Several are already above the neckline of those big inverse H&S patterns i kept showing the past week. Other are against the neckline. XRP and ETH being the best ones, because of the big break out rally. Anyway, there is a lot of room here now for the coming week. Other that have not broken the neckline yet also need to make the right shoulder and the ones who are above it, have lots of room to make a pullback. So based on this, we should be expecting a correction again one of these days, i wish i could time it, but i find it difficult at this moment. Because bitcoin is at a level that doesn't say much. If it had touched the 4300ish, i would say the correction might have started already. We want bitcoins neckline to be a bit more horizontal. Perfect one would be around 4400 but 4300ish is also good. So ideally we see support now above the 4100 and make another push up today. These are bigger picture assumption. I will try to make one on the smaller time frame
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Extra fractal update <deleted>
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I am going to delete the one above and posted a new one, sorry about that :)
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When looking a the current picture, we had a decent bull flag earlier around the high, a small breakout but as we can see the market was not confident enough to push further to the upside. It is possible that the bull will reload at the current price, but on the left we can see a small bear flag which could take us to the lower 40xx levels. On the left we can see the big inverse H&S, assuming it's real, it could be that we already have started to make the right shoulder. One could say that the right shoulder is already set (blue circle), but IMO it's too small and the breakout we had today was small as well. The small breakout could still be okay, but the volume was too low. So it's either a failing inverse H&S, or it's not the correct neckline. On the right we can see 2 target levels, the triangle (which looks real) says the upper blue circle. The H&S pattern says more around 4250/70.
So a lot of signs at the moment. Overal we can say the market is very bullish and will most likely stay that way for a while. Just the short term which is much more difficult to judge at the moment.
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This is my ideal way to go. We already have bearish divergence, volume is dropping a bit as well, so ideally one more lame push up, complete a possible bearish wedge and come down to find support and make the right shoulderNote
Or test the support first of the wedge (break of the bear flag on the right) and maybe than move up again? I know, a lot of options, but the problem is, the breakout is so minimal, very difficult to judge. Don't forget, during holiday's the volume probably stays lower than usualNote
Seeing an attempt to bounce up, but slowing down and getting a bit weaker. So we could see a retest of the low again. Still inside that possible wedge as well on the left. So ideally we move up a bit again. On the right we can see a possible bullish wedge, which could be the retest of the high and probably make a lower high. If that is the case, we could be starting to form the right shoulder of the big inverse H&S.Note
Update Bitcoin:
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I don't have the time to respond to everyone, thank you for the kind words, really appreciate it and Merry Christmas to everyone as well :)
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