If Bitcoin were to repeat itself
BTC Fibonacci retrace levels + visual indicators of where it went after last ATH
This is not a prediction, it is a representation of what it will look like if bitcoin has maxed out and is about to follows the same fibonacci retrace patterns as it did after 2018 ATH.
I am stabilizing the price a little bit by using 7 day MA, as i see it as a better indication of the actual price from a long term trading perspective
( I can make new BTC ATH at 100,000 today if i want, i just need to buy 1 satoshi for 0,001 $. my point: only very small amount of total volumes are traded at ATH)
just so we are clear, It will obviously not follow the same pattern again. But it is a good indicator of what levels of volatility and rebounces that we can expect. A reminder from the past. I am only looking at the last run, because it was remarkably different than prior runs. Priorly Bitcoin had smaller gains before a bear period, and only 30-50% loss before going to new highs, but in 2018 it had had a higher and more exponential growth, which also was the case for fall 2020. So that was to me the start of a new era of crypto inflation runs where non-tech-sawy entities show interest, money and willingness to buy ATH and sell with great losses, forcing the price even lower, where in 2011-2016, tech enthusiasts had strong hands, hodling the money of the future, not causing as huge price declines after ATH. Therefore i expect huge declines from ATH yet again. And im very open to the idea that the top is not reached yet, 43K seems very low for a new ath. If this really was the top, then i expect that it will decline less than last time, maybe only to 0.382 level.
This is not a prediction, it is a representation of what it will look like if bitcoin has maxed out and is about to follows the same fibonacci retrace patterns as it did after 2018 ATH.
I am stabilizing the price a little bit by using 7 day MA, as i see it as a better indication of the actual price from a long term trading perspective
( I can make new BTC ATH at 100,000 today if i want, i just need to buy 1 satoshi for 0,001 $. my point: only very small amount of total volumes are traded at ATH)
just so we are clear, It will obviously not follow the same pattern again. But it is a good indicator of what levels of volatility and rebounces that we can expect. A reminder from the past. I am only looking at the last run, because it was remarkably different than prior runs. Priorly Bitcoin had smaller gains before a bear period, and only 30-50% loss before going to new highs, but in 2018 it had had a higher and more exponential growth, which also was the case for fall 2020. So that was to me the start of a new era of crypto inflation runs where non-tech-sawy entities show interest, money and willingness to buy ATH and sell with great losses, forcing the price even lower, where in 2011-2016, tech enthusiasts had strong hands, hodling the money of the future, not causing as huge price declines after ATH. Therefore i expect huge declines from ATH yet again. And im very open to the idea that the top is not reached yet, 43K seems very low for a new ath. If this really was the top, then i expect that it will decline less than last time, maybe only to 0.382 level.
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