"Crash"? What crash?

Updated

#ZoomOut.

This is just a healthy retracement; perhaps down to 51.5kUSD, or even down to 44.6kUSD (towards the thin-orange 200 VWMA, or thick-orange 200 SMA) imo.

Note

The first key level to look out for is the ichimoku cloud at the first 23.6% FibLvl (60kUSD). If this fails to hold, the ~50kUSD level would be the next target. With the rapid and rabid run-up in February from the current 61.8% FibLvl at ~38kUSD, a more significant flush-out of shit/memecoins degens and leveraging raging bulls is due; until the insane level of mania has been properly drowned and suppressed.

Note

Found support above the 200 SMA, but rejected by the green 50 SMA, and Ichicloud flipped orange (bearish), on the 4hrly. Only chance of recovery from this level is if BTC is able to pierce and hold above 68.9kUSD, which this rebound (atm) doesn't seem strong enough to accomplish. Although, to note, the histogram on my FG{50/15} indicator is turning green again on the 4 hourly.

Will switch to short-term bullish biased again if BTC forms a local higher high, thus setting up an inverse head-and-shoulder pattern (need to wait for breakout, again at ~68kUSD). However presently, short term, I remain bearish with the ~50kUSD level as the likely next target.

Note

4hrly chart
Bounced off the thick-orange 200 SMA line strongly (red-"x" on the FusionGap oscillator marks the end of the dump), and pierced above the green 50 SMA line, with an impending 21EMA:50SMA bullish cross. Chance for a reversal?

Note

Finally breaking out above the green-zone, chance to retest the ATH again. The Fusiongap oscillator have also flipped positive and green again on the 4 hrly; with a double bottom setup above the orange 200 SMA line.

Note

Continuation of bullish price discovery will resume once BTC manages to breaks out above the ATH at above ~73.9kUSD. However, rejection of this ATH level would signal a probable revisit of the 60kUSD level, and potentially falling down to the 50kUSD range if the green 50 SMA on the daily chart fails to hold.

Note

Momentum reversal on the 4hrly:

Note

The more bearish scenarios have been negated.
Ichicloud has now flipped bullish again, and the FG-ribbon in the FG oscillator is resetting - winding up for yet another run up.

Note

Price target estimate = 81.2kUSD above ATH @ 73.8kUSD, before perhaps coming down to retest ATH again..
Note: Fib level redrawn from a more local bottom on the 4hrly chart.

Note

Caution: BTC failed to hold above the white trendline. FG-histogram flipping bearish (orange) again. Final line of defense is the 200 SMA on the 4hrly chart before the bearish continuation scenario plays out.

If BTC loses strength here, this will also establish a lower-high on the longer time scale. However, note the ichicloud is still remains green and there is a high probability that it may serve as a support for BTC to bounce off of. Will need to monitor the next few candles on the 4hrly, however so long as BTC remain above the 200 SMA (and especially above the ~68kUSD level -- see the yellow horizontal line) the overall perception of the trend remains bullish for now.

Note

Short-term bearish scenario confirmation on the 4hrly once candle closes below the thick orange 200 SMA line:

Probable first target is to revisit 60kUSD.

Note

Redrawn AB=CD target (US76k)
FG-bearish dump played out and completed "x".
Higher-low and higher-high established.

Note

Daily chart view, BTC continues to be supported above the green 50 daily SMA line. FG-histogram remains bullish since 29Jan2024 after the hidden-bullish divergence on the 26thJan20204. Ichicloud turned and remained bullish since the 8thNov2023.

Note

The daily FG-histogram have finally flipped bearish (orange).

The green 50 SMA also failed to hold. However BTC remains supported above the green Ichicloud for now. Will need to continue observing the chart over the next week to determine if the green box support will fail, with bearish target below US50k.

Alternatively, a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern could be playing out instead, if the price wicks below US60k and recovers within the day, etc.

Note

Market corrections of ~30% are normal as per the original post. Presently we are only down only 15%.

While waiting for things on the daily candle to play out and become clearer, been monitoring at the shorter 4hrly timescale for contrary signals. And on the shorter 4hrly timescale, there were multiple opportunities to negate the correction scenario (as presented on the original post) but those failed.

A correction of 30-40% would actually be really healthy (and not historically unusual), winding up the market leading up to the BTC halving.

Opportunity to accumulate awaits. ;)

Note

Market sentiments is now extremely negative, with many anticipating a 51kUSD or even lower Bitcoin (not to similar to my initial analysis). Perhaps it is time to start accumulating slowly back in (w/o FOMO), just a little bit.

Also ETH is also looking attractive again for DCAing, looking at the ETHBTC chart.
With the second accumulation zone now being hit!

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.