Bitcoin-Post-Halving-Cycle-Price-Analysis
Updated
Hello, Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this update-analysis about the post-halving situation facing bitcoin in the short-to-middle-term at the moment and what we can expect the next hours and days. The third bitcoin halving has now contributed successfully and how I pointed out in past analysis every time after the halving emerged we saw a smaller to bigger dip within bitcoins price-action, this dip hasn't come so far now after the third halving, this can indicate a possible dip scenario which is playing together with the rising wedge that I detected within the price-action. These two factors together with the strong resistance playing an important role and can affect bitcoins price-action substantially therefore we are looking at the daily timeframe.
Rising-Wedge-Formation:
The rising wedge you can see in my chart marked with the light-blue lines shouldn't be kept by side because it is a huge formation which in the most occasion confirms bearish to the downside, there are only a few cases where this bearish confirmation does not play out and the formation confirms bullish to the upside. Technically we will see a confirmation of this rising wedge when bitcoin confirms bearish at the strong resistance/support level you can see in my chart marked in blue between the 10230 and 10600 level, after a break of the lower boundary the formation is confirmed and possible to enter a trade on the short-side to aim for the target zone you can see marked in the chart.
Strong Resistance/Support:
The psychological resistance we have here at the 10.000 to 10.600 USD is such a significant resistance at the moment where bitcoin confirmed several times to the downside that it is really not a minor level and should be kept in mind as a leading origin of bearish pressure to the downside. As you can see we bounced at this range already several times to the downside now in the third attempt to break over this string resistance, what will change this dynamic is a clear close above the 10.600 USD level with good volatility, this will invalidate the resistance and confirm it as support but as for now it must be contemplated as resistance and currently playing coherently together with the rising-wedge-formation.
Post Halving:
As I mentioned in past analysis about the halving-cycles which can be the starting point of the third halving cycle now is that we had an initial dip within the first times of the post halving due to supply entering the market, therefore we have this current post-halving situation which is playing logically to the rising-wedge-formation and the strong resistance/support we have in this structure. In this case, we have a high probability to see an price-dip before contemplating a possible bullish confirmation in the long-run and longer timeframes, I already mentioned other parts of the mechanism in a past analysis which I recommend you to see when going on my account and look at the analysis.
Taking all these three important leading technical factors into consideration we can assume that bitcoin has a potential dip insight when the rising wedge we have in the structure confirms properly and as it is a high possibility at the moment this scenario should definitely be kept in mind to be prepared when it happens. This breakout to the downside can be traded very well conservatively on the short-side after price has confirmed the lower boundary of the wedge. Remember that the breakout needs to fulfill with the right volatility to the downside and not mere low-volatility piercing the line. After this possible scenario has played out we need to elevate how bitcoin develops and if we get a reversal and continuation to the upside in the structure.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support for more market insight and all the best!
Trading effectively is about assessing probabilities, not certainties.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Rising-Wedge-Formation:
The rising wedge you can see in my chart marked with the light-blue lines shouldn't be kept by side because it is a huge formation which in the most occasion confirms bearish to the downside, there are only a few cases where this bearish confirmation does not play out and the formation confirms bullish to the upside. Technically we will see a confirmation of this rising wedge when bitcoin confirms bearish at the strong resistance/support level you can see in my chart marked in blue between the 10230 and 10600 level, after a break of the lower boundary the formation is confirmed and possible to enter a trade on the short-side to aim for the target zone you can see marked in the chart.
Strong Resistance/Support:
The psychological resistance we have here at the 10.000 to 10.600 USD is such a significant resistance at the moment where bitcoin confirmed several times to the downside that it is really not a minor level and should be kept in mind as a leading origin of bearish pressure to the downside. As you can see we bounced at this range already several times to the downside now in the third attempt to break over this string resistance, what will change this dynamic is a clear close above the 10.600 USD level with good volatility, this will invalidate the resistance and confirm it as support but as for now it must be contemplated as resistance and currently playing coherently together with the rising-wedge-formation.
Post Halving:
As I mentioned in past analysis about the halving-cycles which can be the starting point of the third halving cycle now is that we had an initial dip within the first times of the post halving due to supply entering the market, therefore we have this current post-halving situation which is playing logically to the rising-wedge-formation and the strong resistance/support we have in this structure. In this case, we have a high probability to see an price-dip before contemplating a possible bullish confirmation in the long-run and longer timeframes, I already mentioned other parts of the mechanism in a past analysis which I recommend you to see when going on my account and look at the analysis.
Taking all these three important leading technical factors into consideration we can assume that bitcoin has a potential dip insight when the rising wedge we have in the structure confirms properly and as it is a high possibility at the moment this scenario should definitely be kept in mind to be prepared when it happens. This breakout to the downside can be traded very well conservatively on the short-side after price has confirmed the lower boundary of the wedge. Remember that the breakout needs to fulfill with the right volatility to the downside and not mere low-volatility piercing the line. After this possible scenario has played out we need to elevate how bitcoin develops and if we get a reversal and continuation to the upside in the structure.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support for more market insight and all the best!
Trading effectively is about assessing probabilities, not certainties.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Note
We see some consolidation in the smaller timeframe after such a consolidation there is normally a heavy breakout in either directionNote
When bitcoin riches the resistance zone it will be realised if that level confirms as still valid resistanceNote
UPDATE ANALYSIS: The price action with which the ascending triangle could completed has emerged exactly as predicted.Since then BITCOIN also could find main supports within the structure from where a determining reversal developed.
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