Bitcoin - The ultimate warning!
Updated
In yet another perplexing move, cryptocurrencies jumped higher after yesterday's CPI print in the United States. Better than expected results sparked a wave of buying among retail investors pumping the price of Bitcoin above the immediate support/resistance and simultaneously into the bullish zone. However, we think this recent move perfectly shows how irrational markets can become despite mounting evidence that the world will be driven into a deeper recession toward the end of 2022.
In our opinion, the narrative that the FED will step in, cut interest rates and start printing money to avoid recession is wrong. Indeed, we think this narrative is one of the leading causes of the current rally (with technical factors also strongly contributing). Unfortunately, we believe the FED is left with no choice but to increase interest rates to fight inflation. However, by doing that, the FED will risk causing more systemic problems in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
Therefore, we stick to our bearish outlook when looking beyond the rally. Accordingly, we maintain a medium-term price target of 17 500 USD and a long-term price target of 15 000 USD. For the short-term, we are looking at 26 500 USD with the invalidation level at 24 280 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and the trade setup we introduced recently. Simple support and resistance lines are derived from prior peaks and troughs. The yellow arrow indicates the bullish breakout. We stick to our previous assessment of the upside for Bitcoin, which is 26 500 USD in the short term (invalidated if a retracement occurs); however, we will again pay close attention to volume levels.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD turned bullish. However, they show exhaustion, which may imply the ultimate bull trap above the immediate support/resistance. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame turned bullish. Despite that, we voice caution.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows previous and current bear market rallies. The magnitude of moves is measured from the low to the high. The current rally falls into the range of the earlier downtrend corrections.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are slightly bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.03
The illustration above shows previous bullish breakouts and what happened to volume after they occurred. For the bearish scenario and invalidation of the breakout, ideally, we would like to see the same development occur this time again.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
In our opinion, the narrative that the FED will step in, cut interest rates and start printing money to avoid recession is wrong. Indeed, we think this narrative is one of the leading causes of the current rally (with technical factors also strongly contributing). Unfortunately, we believe the FED is left with no choice but to increase interest rates to fight inflation. However, by doing that, the FED will risk causing more systemic problems in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
Therefore, we stick to our bearish outlook when looking beyond the rally. Accordingly, we maintain a medium-term price target of 17 500 USD and a long-term price target of 15 000 USD. For the short-term, we are looking at 26 500 USD with the invalidation level at 24 280 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and the trade setup we introduced recently. Simple support and resistance lines are derived from prior peaks and troughs. The yellow arrow indicates the bullish breakout. We stick to our previous assessment of the upside for Bitcoin, which is 26 500 USD in the short term (invalidated if a retracement occurs); however, we will again pay close attention to volume levels.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD turned bullish. However, they show exhaustion, which may imply the ultimate bull trap above the immediate support/resistance. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame turned bullish. Despite that, we voice caution.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows previous and current bear market rallies. The magnitude of moves is measured from the low to the high. The current rally falls into the range of the earlier downtrend corrections.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are slightly bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.03
The illustration above shows previous bullish breakouts and what happened to volume after they occurred. For the bearish scenario and invalidation of the breakout, ideally, we would like to see the same development occur this time again.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Note
Volume hints at looming reversal. Trade active
The bullish breakout became invalidated.Trade active
Idea was updated in the following post: 
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