The Bearish-Bull Megathread
Updated
This years consensus is filled with a lot of confusion.
Bitcoin hasn't been behaving.
It's been naughty.
Here's the deal. A lot of people are saying Bitcoin may go south, to the early 7k or worse range. As I write this, the bears have already taken it down to $8,500. Is that the lowest it'll go? Probably not.
The ultimate fakeout. Something has been brewing, in a VERY big way, for the past month. There has been Hidden Bullish Divergence that I feel a lot of people are either just not talking about, or don't see.
I see it.
We are on the verge of an epic price war between the bears and the bulls. For over a month, the price has been getting higher and higher, and the RSI has been getting lower and lower. So low, in fact, that we hit completely oversold status a few days ago, AND WE ARE STILL GOING DOWN. The bulls have barely been showing presence. Up until now, I didn't quite understand why if the bulls were around, they'd let it get this low.
I'll tell you why.
BOTH the bears and the bulls have decided that the 8xxx range is a lot more tasty to snack and feast on, than 10k+. It's a win win for either side. Bears get to destroy BTC in a matter of seconds, and the bulls get much cheaper BTC. In a perfect world, the bears and bulls wouldn't try to fight each other. In OUR world, the bulls have allowed the bears to do basically whatever they want. Why? Because they're training you.
The whales in BTC have literally trained every single one of you to see this as normal. The past month, the Hidden Bullish Divergence has gotten stronger, and stronger, and stronger.
As a matter of fact, both bulls AND bears are trained. So much so in fact, that if you saw BTC right now go up to 9k almost instantly, you'd probably think "It's gonna come back down anyway." Right?
WRONG.
One of these times, you're gonna see the price spike.
Then because you 'know' it won't remain there for long, you'll sell, or worse, open up a short.
Then suddenly out of nowhere BAM the price spikes again.
So you open another short, and so on. Next thing you know, shorts start to liquidate because the price won't come down.
I believe the reason we are seeing Bitcoin go down during Consensus is for the simple fact that it's a fakeout. Look at the front page. Magic, Botje, and others think we will see low 7's.
There are some on the front page even calling for less than that!
I want to make something very clear to you people, the whales do NOT want you buying for cheap.
They want to make you sell your BTC, then buy it back for a higher price than you sold it for.
This is how they make their money.
That being said, the chart is pretty self explanitory. I believe we will see a drop to the 8k region. Worst case, $7,500. It's going to likely go down hard and fast, to trick you into thinking it's going to continue.
Imagine. Imagine if we create a higher low, then go down to my reversal zone. Imagine how many shorts will open up thinking we may ACTUALLY SEE a $7,200 BTC?
Until we see 10k+ I will be posting ALL updates in this thread, because I want to see how accurate I am.
Please remember people, I called a PERFECT reversal almost exactly a month ago. When we hit $6,753.40 and SKYROCKETED.
Unfortunately, I was naughty too, and I broke the rules so the idea got hidden.
My followers remember that call.
Will this one follow suit?
I will be live-streaming TA on Twitch today. I plan to do it pretty much all day.
I also have a telegram channel. I cannot advertise either of them here yet, so please PM me for the links.
I'd love to see you there :D
-teh Salesman
Bitcoin hasn't been behaving.
It's been naughty.
Here's the deal. A lot of people are saying Bitcoin may go south, to the early 7k or worse range. As I write this, the bears have already taken it down to $8,500. Is that the lowest it'll go? Probably not.
The ultimate fakeout. Something has been brewing, in a VERY big way, for the past month. There has been Hidden Bullish Divergence that I feel a lot of people are either just not talking about, or don't see.
I see it.
We are on the verge of an epic price war between the bears and the bulls. For over a month, the price has been getting higher and higher, and the RSI has been getting lower and lower. So low, in fact, that we hit completely oversold status a few days ago, AND WE ARE STILL GOING DOWN. The bulls have barely been showing presence. Up until now, I didn't quite understand why if the bulls were around, they'd let it get this low.
I'll tell you why.
BOTH the bears and the bulls have decided that the 8xxx range is a lot more tasty to snack and feast on, than 10k+. It's a win win for either side. Bears get to destroy BTC in a matter of seconds, and the bulls get much cheaper BTC. In a perfect world, the bears and bulls wouldn't try to fight each other. In OUR world, the bulls have allowed the bears to do basically whatever they want. Why? Because they're training you.
The whales in BTC have literally trained every single one of you to see this as normal. The past month, the Hidden Bullish Divergence has gotten stronger, and stronger, and stronger.
As a matter of fact, both bulls AND bears are trained. So much so in fact, that if you saw BTC right now go up to 9k almost instantly, you'd probably think "It's gonna come back down anyway." Right?
WRONG.
One of these times, you're gonna see the price spike.
Then because you 'know' it won't remain there for long, you'll sell, or worse, open up a short.
Then suddenly out of nowhere BAM the price spikes again.
So you open another short, and so on. Next thing you know, shorts start to liquidate because the price won't come down.
I believe the reason we are seeing Bitcoin go down during Consensus is for the simple fact that it's a fakeout. Look at the front page. Magic, Botje, and others think we will see low 7's.
There are some on the front page even calling for less than that!
I want to make something very clear to you people, the whales do NOT want you buying for cheap.
They want to make you sell your BTC, then buy it back for a higher price than you sold it for.
This is how they make their money.
That being said, the chart is pretty self explanitory. I believe we will see a drop to the 8k region. Worst case, $7,500. It's going to likely go down hard and fast, to trick you into thinking it's going to continue.
Imagine. Imagine if we create a higher low, then go down to my reversal zone. Imagine how many shorts will open up thinking we may ACTUALLY SEE a $7,200 BTC?
Until we see 10k+ I will be posting ALL updates in this thread, because I want to see how accurate I am.
Please remember people, I called a PERFECT reversal almost exactly a month ago. When we hit $6,753.40 and SKYROCKETED.
Unfortunately, I was naughty too, and I broke the rules so the idea got hidden.
My followers remember that call.
Will this one follow suit?
I will be live-streaming TA on Twitch today. I plan to do it pretty much all day.
I also have a telegram channel. I cannot advertise either of them here yet, so please PM me for the links.
I'd love to see you there :D
-teh Salesman
Note
Up next?
We'll cross this bridge once we come to it.
Note
Getting a little close to that trend line...
Stay tuned
Note
Close-up of price action. Notice the WICKS! They're legit HUGE.
and they are
EVERYWHERE
Note
Same thing as pre-moon, a back and forth kinda tug of war.Holding support, but getting rejected at resistance.
Note
Note
Take a look at my buddies chart.
Note
Just a nice close-up of the bear flag.The fractal shown above is pretty much in progress. If it's accurate, we should have one more sizeable dump, consolidation, and MOON. I believe we will be starting wave 3 longer-term which will bring us up VERY impulsively.
But hey, I'm bad at Elliott Wave theory, so don't listen to the amateur. ;)
PM ME for my telegram and twitch!
Note
Some people have asked me what a fake out is. A fakeout is meant to trick an unknowing person out of their holdings. By the time they realize the price is going back up they’re too scared to get back in. These fakeouts are nothing more than a shakeout, which usually don’t last all that long. It’s all about ridding every price range of weak hands. Once the whales feel they’ve sufficiently done that, we will have a higher high. Until then, expect us to go down and with sideways movement.Note
We do have a bit of a sign of life, but nothing much to talk about yet.However, notice the wicks that are appearing. This price range is a very volatile area. At this point, it's a crap shoot which way things are going to go. Unfortunately, the bulls don't seem able right now to push the price up much higher. The RSI is beginning to trend down, and it's only a matter of time before the MACD crosses to sell, as it is also barely hanging on.
2 Bear candles in a row, and it's looking likely we will get a third:
Note
Possible break of the ascending wedge:Note
Zoomed out:My circle is looking more and more likely as time goes on. Bulls need to hold this or we go dumpy dumpy
Note
If we confirm a 15m past my blue ascending trend-line, that would be extremely bearish. We're testing it as we speak. WILL IT HOLD is the questionNote
WE MAY BE GOIN DOWN GOD DANGGGGGGGGGNote
We confirmed a 15m candle after a breakdown of the bear flag.We either have to moon right here, or fall to the nearest support at $8,250.
Zoomed out
Note
RSI super oversold on the 15+45mA look at the MACD, now showing a sell signal:
Note
We may get a small bounce here. Depending on where we go from here will ultimately decide the fate of BTC.Will it go back up enough to sustain a possible uptrend, or will it go down farther? My bet is we get a small bounce then proceed to go back down. There just doesn't seem to be enough momentum yet.
Note
We have a very, very important support at $8,250If we break down farther than that, the next support looks to be around $7,980.
I do not think we will go much farther than that. This bad boy is primed to reverse at just about any time.
For reference, the 4h
Note
6h* PS, about to get a MACD sell signal in the 4hStay tuned.
PM me for my telegram link where you get info like this for F R E E.
Note
4h RSI and MACD.If the MACD crosses, my buy circle comes into play.
Note
"Here's what I think will happen. We will continue sideways for a bit until out of nowhere, the next dump comes. This dump will take us down to our old support of $8,400. People will buy back in. Then we'll go sideways a while bouncing from resistance back down to support, forming another slightly higher low. Then we'll dump from there to 8k or so. Go sideways a bit, let the shorts start to skyrocket. Here's what I think will happen. We will continue sideways for a bit until out of nowhere, the next dump comes. This dump will take us down to our old support of $8,400. People will buy back in. Then we'll go sideways a while bouncing from resistance back down to support, forming another slightly higher low. Then we'll far from there to 8k or so. Go sideways a bit, let the shorts start to skyrocket.
Then, oh no another dump! We're going to 6k!!!!!!!
NOT.
$7,900-$7950 or so is where I believe we will not only turn back around, but skyrocket.
"
Predicted yesterday.
PM me for my telegram. ;)
-teh Salesman
Note
The 4H MACD is officially crossing.This is a sell signal.
If we do not get a very sizeable bounce in about the next 10-30 minutes, we're doing down. HARD.
Note
Dumpy dumpyNote
Next support found at $7,980Note
We are extremely oversold in the 45m time frame.MACD is a sell.
RSI is oversold af.
We are holding, but barely. I suspect a few more legs down. However, the circle means we are in what I believe to be reversal zone so at any point, I believe BTC will skyrocket. Be careful, and have tight stops.
Note
Note
The 4 HR MACD is still a sell.The RSI is nearing oversold.
Right now, there's a strange support forming around the top of my circle xD
Note
It amazes me how blatantly these market manipulators just keep scooping up all the weak hands in these price ranges. This is gonna be one EPIC RIDE once she finally goes up. Where do we reverse, where everyone THINKS it will, or where the AMATEUR thinks it will? Only time will tell.Either way, it's very clear these guys are doing ritualistic cleanses. I watch these charts like some people can watch paint dry.
They are LEGIT CLEARING THE WEAK HANDS in front of every resistance. By doing this, they're clearing this area as FUTURE SUPPORT. Guess what? We're STUPIDLY close to a reversal. I'd dang near bet on it.
One thing is for sure. The next 12 hours will be quiet interesting to watch unfold. Overnight action could legit go either way. Add on the fact that we're oversold, and this is a perfect time to suddenly jack the price.
Where will the whales stop?
When will we actually moonlambo?
Stay tuned...The amateur's got your back.
-teh Salesman
Note
Slight curl on the 4H RSI but nothing spectacular. If we were going to reverse from here I believe we would of seen a pretty hard moon. We only managed to get to around $8,200 before puttering out of gas. Which way will we go next? My guess is, we likely fall again. We're nearing insta-reversal territory though, so keep on your toes. If you see 'the' breakout, trust me, you'll know.4h Rsi trending up, price barely sustaining
MACD still signals a sell.
Up close 45m
Note
Expect movement soon. Usually the 6h and 12h closes have some pretty good action.6h
12h
Safe to say, the trend is your friend, but don't get greedy.
Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.
Gonna be calling it a night soon. Remember, PM me for my Telegram info.
Note
On the 15m it shows we are currently trending up. MACD is showing a buy, but it's still too dangerous to be sticking our neck out, especially with a brand new bear flag taking shape. We are currently testing the new high formed earlier on.Note that the RSI is only trending sideways. This indicates a lack of buying pressure in the area. Right now I believe only weak hands are being passed through. Be careful in this zone, we are nearing reversal within a few $100 if my fundamental skills are correct.
Note
We just tested our recent high of $8,226 and got rejected.The MACD still shows buyers are present but barely.
The RSI is now trending down.
Note
This area is crucial. Either we're bull or bear. The next low determines what should happen short term.Note
15m.Even though we closed a 15m candle above the bear flag, it was weak and stopped hard. The candle prior to it went all the way up to the 30 day MA but was stopped.
This isn't looking good for the bulls. A serious push in an upwards direction within 2-3 hours is needed in order to gain any kind of bullish momentum. Short term, everything still looks bearish.
Note
Alright everyone. Last update for tonight. Remember, I go live on twitch in about 10 hours so come say hi! :DSo for most time frames, we aren't looking great. We recently formed what I believe to be the high of the latest bear flag. Indicators are showing the momentum was recently in favor of the bulls, however the momentum was weak.
Currently, I'm seeing price and RSI trending down.
The MACD was converging for a cross in the shorter time frame but has since started to diverge again in favor of the sellers. As we speak the price is $8,219.
Technically speaking, it is directly outside of our buy zone. Earlier during the night, we wicked into the buy zone and have since found temporary support at the $8,200 region.
If history repeats itself, we should likely end up forming another lower low within the next hour or two. What happens overnight will pretty much discern what BTC will be up to for the next few days. Ideally, we'd like to see an 8k re-test with a sizeable bounce, but that remains to be seen. So far $8,200 support is holding, but the problem, like usual, is that we are holding support and failing at resistance.
In my opinion, we would need a sizeable bounce to at LEAST $8,400 to consider ourselves anywhere near bullish again. So far, we have failed 3 times to make a higher high. Every time we have to re-test support we weaken it. Considering this is a newly formed support, I do not expect it to hold.
Let's see what overnight price action does.
Remember, I cannot advertise my twitch or telegram here.
I go live on Twitch in about 10 hours. Come ask questions, get some feedback, maybe have a coin TA'd, or just listen to some dope music.
PM me for my twitch + telegram.
See you tomorrow,
-teh Salesman
Note
Good morning and afternoon everybody! I trust you slept well! I certainly didn't :(ANYWAY! Let's get to it. So, we clearly have some manipulation going on. Futures close in about 3 hours, where I suspect the price will inevitably fall. We could be in for a very interesting day.
So the prior bull flag, we wicked up into it and are now 'attempting' to break back in. My spidey senses are telling me that more than likely this was a big fat bulltrap. Be very careful which side of the coin you land on, because in this market anything goes. Jumping the price up by $150 out of nowhere with next to no volume spells disaster for anyone who bought the top of it. We are technically consolidating in a bull flag, so another move-up is possible. But again, with low volume, I'm doubting it.
If this bounce were to get us bullish again, we needed to reach at least $8,400+ but we didn't. Yet again, holding support, failing resistance. Last time we held support but failed resistance, we came crashing down.
Note
At the moment we are testing the support of the flag.Note
A user in the comment section pointed out to me the following trend line.Guess what? If it breaks down, my first support at $7,980 becomes valid.
Zoomed out
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Just had a HUGE push upwards out of 'nowhere'. Like usual.Don't fall for these traps folks, it's meant to take your money.
Note
Short-term 5m.Two double tops. Tweezer tops as I call them.
LOTS of sellers in this region.
Note
We just confirmed underneath the MA's short term so we may have a small (or big) breakdown here. Let's find out.Note
We seem to be making a sort of ascending wedge pattern. If I recall correctly, this is bearish for short term but bullish for long term.RSI is trending up.
MACD is signaling a sell still.
Note
By my count, we have tried 7 times to break the resistance of this wedge.Note
Meeting RSI resistance.Note
Currently testing resistance for like the 12th time xDNote
We are soon to see something explosive I believe.We are either bear, or we're bull. If we're bull, it's looking weak with low volume.
If we're bear, support zones are lined in the chart.
Note
Dumpy dumpyNote
RSI is testing resistance again.Last time it did we broke through but price went nowhere.
Price has bearish divergence.
We confirmed a 15m candle outside of the wedge.
We are having issues breaking back INTO the wedge.
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An alternative perspective. Supports and resistance.
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Slight dump but nothing major.MACD showing a sell.
RSI trending down.
Note
MACD is about to cross on the 15m.Could have a small bounce, but we are meeting resistance again.
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Getting denied at resistance.MACD is flat.
RSI is trending down.
Volume is low.
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This candle or the next should be the ones that decide BTC's fate for the next day or two.RSI trending up but weak volume. Coming off a fresh squeeze.
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lolNote
4th time being rejected at this resistance now that superdildo has come and gone.Note
The infamous SATOSHI SIGNAL! This is signaling a possible trend reversal.Be ready!
Note
This little pump still is very weak. The momentum is barely even keeping the RSI up.Note
For those who are unaware. There is an update on current price action.See here
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