Long

Major trends collide, BTC break out near, BTC to $21k+?

If you have been following my posts, you know I have been putting focus on the collision of a 6 month descending channel and a strong 5 year ascending trendline. The collision finally occurred mid-December and the two trends have been battling it out ever since. We have seen the 5 year trendline(Dark Red Line) be tested twice already, I offer no certain evidence but strongly suspect that the 5 year trendline will likely be tested at least one more time. I have been using every touch of the 5 year trendline to position high leverage short term long trades (with great success) and continue accumulation of additional long term holdings. The first touch of the 5 year trendline mid-December was the bottom for BTC.

As discussed previously, there is no compelling reason BTC would break down out of its 5 year trend as it has held the trend in the past with BTC and crypto in far less advantageous positions. We are fast nearing a point where BTC must choose between maintaining the then 7 month descending channel or maintaining the 5 year ascending trend line. I suspect this will likely play out as an ascending wedge (between red and yellow lines) and break out 20-30% before the end of the wedge. You can see the wedge likely forming using historical $7800 as resistance (yellow line). If this plays out as a wedge we see the wedge technically ends around 1.March.2020 which makes a break out likely somewhere around end of January, beginning of February.

I believe that BTC is about to break upwards and have another run similar to what we saw the first 6 months of last year. How high this next run goes is pretty critical. The first high BTC saw was 21k, then last June we saw as a high. Anything below for this next run would validate a deterioration in the trend, anything greater than would strongly validate a bull market and of course a run over 21k would be extremely bullish for the long term outlook of BTC. I think there is a good chance we see BTC break 21k this year but most importantly we need to see it break , if we continue our descent, this next run may only make it to $9500. Its looking like 2020 should be a pretty interesting year for BTC.

Note: If we break below the 5 year trendline and convert it to resistance, traders should be very cautious and be ready to bail on all long holdings as a multi-year low may be on the way. (Highly improbable)

This is not investment advice, merely observations I have made as a trader. DYOR.

EncryptShawn

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