Long

BTCUSD: Sideways until April 4-6th

Updated

Update for all anxious traders expecting big moves asap every flippin' day.
Buyers are at risk of seeing price return to their entries or lowers, sellers at the mercy of margin calls if highly leveraged. I sit in cash, and will remain in cash until we get a buy signal during the first days of April as per the chart. Then I will decide wether to sell, or sell short at resistance, as it is highly unlikely to breach the mode resistance in black. Note this is a 3 day timeframe trend signal, but the chart here is daily to highlight an obvious trendline people watch.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

Note

I'm starting to think could even go down and not sideways... Either way the chart calls for patience until the down trend is expired by April. Let's continue to wait in cash.

Trade active

I'm long from 7880 roughly.

Trade active

I hedged a bit higher, was asleep, woke up to alarms...
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/l/lTQJopgz.png
looks like it may go lower first, support didn't hold for now. It seemed to but it's broken down now due to some news of irrelevant japanese exchanges.

Trade closed manually

Hedge covered, added to spot holdings with profits.
We seem to have strong buyers back at the CTFC/SEC hearing key level zone - #BTCUSD chart

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Trade closed manually

Support failed to hold

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Bought at the down trend target in the daily. Avg buy is around 6672.5

Note

Sold the last buy from 6500 at 6800, cost basis is now 6545 for the spot position.

Trade closed manually

Sold, the last bullish range expansio erased isn't good, sellers came out of nowhere, right at the range expansion resistance in the daily and weekly, this changes the outlook...could be forming a mode for more downside continuation. Better watch from afar, in cash.

Order cancelled

This idea got nullified, we still made out with some gains, from 6545 to 7090.

Weekly #BTCUSD chart:

We might still be trending down for 2 or 3 weeks more. Sellers trapped bulls today, right at weekly resistance, indicating this trend is still valid possibly. We watch from afar to buy the bottom. Fiat = best coin to hodl now.

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#BTCUSD shows bears rejected bulls' advance at resistance, validating my point of view that this was a sideways move before more downside possibly

We continue to wait and watch.

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Back to this scenario, it confirmed a bit ahead of time for the weekly trend, but, making new weekly highs triggered a buy signal there as well. We have: daily uptrend for 9 days at least, weekly up for 3 weeks, target 11500, 3d timeframe up, as per this chart, weekly downtrend ending by April 22nd, target 11k zone within 7 weeks or less.

Only the 2 month timeframe remains bearish, with a sideways/downside bias due to the main trend having ended in December 2017. This keeps the market under pressure until June 2019.

Note

I look at trends in different timeframes, but the biggest pattern we can discern is the one with the biggest relevance, that may make lower timeframe signals fail at critical turning points.

The 2 month timeframe bars indicate we should go sideways in a range, or back down to $442 by June 2019 or sooner, but, in general, this tells us that there is no chance of seeing further growth in the long term trend, until enough time passes to cool off and at the same time let the smart money accumulate and absorb the supply from frustrated buyers who get trapped in loss over time.

From that initial asessment that we made, that was a prediction for a top in December 2017, for 20 months, two paths open up: sideways for 20 months, down to $442 within 20 months. It doesn't mean that the bottom will ONLY be found in that time, it could be that gyrations in shorter term time scales cause price to eventually bottom sooner than that, to then base going sideways after an initial bounce -like it happened in 2015 when we almost hit $150. It bounced, then went sideways at a higher level before going up.-

We don't know the exact shape of the bear market, but we could predict prices wouldn't continue the violent growth we saw during 2016 and 2017, contrary to popular belief at the time -back in December-.

I know that most people fomo'd in after we broke 10k, initially, until it hit the top, so that range of prices is less likely to hold if revisited, since it would let them break even. Break even sellers would put pressure on advancing prices approaching that zone.

From lower timeframes, we see that there was a weekly and 3 day per bar timeframe downtrend. The 3 day tf one ended already. Since the time for the 3 day trend expired in April 4-6th, the implications from that timeframe are that price should return to the distribution level, the mode or price with the most activity during the sideways range after an initial decline from the top, or alternatively, grind sideways and form a new distribution level, down here.
Since price jumped up already, it's clear it wants to retest the sellers' up at the distribution level I drew in black in my chart here.

Daily trend had a potential bearish signal, that failed to work, as price moved back over the potential distribution level, it became clear that bulls were accumulating long positions, absorbing supply from shorts, who got squeezed on yesterday's jump. Now with no more sellers left, this should glide higher from here.

Additionally, the daily has a new 9 day uptrend signal in place now, so we can expect upside from that timeframe for that long at least. In time, by April 22nd, the weekly trend will also be up, so we will have daily, 3-day, weekly, all pointing up, and 2-month tf pointing sideways/down. By the time the upside is met as per lower timeframe expectations, it's likely that higher timeframe sellers will strike again, with a vengeance, as we test the place from where most of the selling took place at.

Trade active

Btw, I'm back in the long, after being 'stopped' from my puny 1.25% size short breaking above 7024 ish. I waited to observe price action and determined that since prices were holding over 7435, weekly sellers had been trapped and no new sellers were present to send prices down, so I went long, roughly at 7689. I can still add more, it's only 50% of the crypto funds that I allocated, to not risk going all in, and face volatility before seeing profits. I might average in with the rest during a few days.

Target the 11k zone within a few weeks.

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#BTCUSD updated 'guess'

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:
my guess for a 3 day dip did come to fruition, just 2 days later when people got EIP
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/e/EdEYesVO.png
I added at 7870 ish
first entry was 7689, 2nd entry at 8112.1, and the last and bigger one near today's low. I didn't manage to exit my short instantly at my 'stop' at 7024, cause I didn't place a stop order -I never use them- I had an alert ring and acted on it with some delay to flip long. It's ok, slightly shittier entry, but overall fine
Downside momentum could resume at any time after we retest 9900-11500
but there would be upside pressure possibly until June 9th max
that's a long time to go up, most likely gonna spend half of it going sideways once we top
building for the next swing down, absorbing demand, as liquidity for new shorts
until buyers can't bid it up no more and run out of ammo.

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#BTCUSD update

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Trade closed manually

I'm out of long positions, back in cash...waiting to short. Last 9816.7

To be safe, I want to avoid risk from weekly sellers suddenly frustrating the daily uptrend. Keep in mind we're in a bear market in the longest term timeframe, and it can turn the tide suddenly, once long term sellers act again.

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#BTCUSD chart

No further comment.

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Previous signal was a bearish failure, thus a buy signal when time ran out...maybe we get yet another of these after the next decline ends. Signal not yet confirmed btw, hence the dotted line.

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Downtrend signal now active

I'll publish as a stand alone bearish idea.

IvanLabrie

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