One of the silliest predictions that I hear over the past year is about the imminent demise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Let's go to the Historical BTC charts, shall we?
https://imgur.com/gallery/HW515Jp
Source / Image Credit: royalflushes on imgur.
As you can see in the charts, the history of BTC shows that:
1. It took about 2 years before BTC experienced its first major Bull Run.
2. It then took about 4 months for the first major BTC Bull Run to hit its peak.
3. It then took about 4 months for the first major BTC Crash to hit bottom.
4. It then took about 2 years before BTC experienced its second major Bull Run.
5. It then took about 4 months for the second major BTC Bull Run to hit its peak.
6. It then took about 4 months for the second major BTC Crash to hit bottom.
7. It then took about 2 years before BTC experienced its third major Bull Run.
8. It then took about 9 months for the third Major BTC Bull Run to play out.
9. It then took about 6 months for the 4th Major BTC Bull Run to hit its peak.
10. It then took about 4 months for the 3rd Major BTC Crash to hit bottom.
11. It has now been about 6 months of sideways trading since the 3rd Major BTC Crash.
These indications show a definite pattern, and in fact multiple patterns.
Regardless of whales and manipulations by institutions, BTC has years of long slow rise periods before Major Bull Runs.
And, when a major BTC Bull Run happens, it happens in the last 4 - 6 months after a couple of years of a long, slow rise.
And, we are currently just 6 months beyond the point where BTC hit bottom.
So, it is likely, if the cycle is consistent, that the market and BTC may still be 18 - 24 months away from its fifth Major Bull Run.
What could change that? Tech developments and massive adoption rates by the public. And, clearer regulation in places where that is an issue.
Is it possible we could have a Major BTC Bull Run before the next 18 - 24 months? Of course. And arguably it is likely if so much 'smart money' is putting their money into it, as we have seen the last 6 months, and even more so in the last 2 - 3 months, at an exponentially increasing rate.
Is it possible that market manipulation by players like JP Morgan Chase and others will cause the next Major BTC Bull Run? It's possible, however I would argue that it's unlikely to drive the price up as much as if the tech development and actual adoption rates by Joe Q. Public and a significant portion of companies that people use daily, weekly, monthly and annually without a second thought.
So are you Bullish on BTC and the rest of the crypto markets? Yes, I am, because I do think that even manipulation can lead to significant rises in market awareness, participation and prices. Nevertheless, I would prefer to see the next Major BTC Bull Run be the result of actual market and tech developments. I think that would be healthier for the long term stability, growth and investment value of cryptocurrencies.
Let's go to the Historical BTC charts, shall we?
https://imgur.com/gallery/HW515Jp
Source / Image Credit: royalflushes on imgur.
As you can see in the charts, the history of BTC shows that:
1. It took about 2 years before BTC experienced its first major Bull Run.
2. It then took about 4 months for the first major BTC Bull Run to hit its peak.
3. It then took about 4 months for the first major BTC Crash to hit bottom.
4. It then took about 2 years before BTC experienced its second major Bull Run.
5. It then took about 4 months for the second major BTC Bull Run to hit its peak.
6. It then took about 4 months for the second major BTC Crash to hit bottom.
7. It then took about 2 years before BTC experienced its third major Bull Run.
8. It then took about 9 months for the third Major BTC Bull Run to play out.
9. It then took about 6 months for the 4th Major BTC Bull Run to hit its peak.
10. It then took about 4 months for the 3rd Major BTC Crash to hit bottom.
11. It has now been about 6 months of sideways trading since the 3rd Major BTC Crash.
These indications show a definite pattern, and in fact multiple patterns.
Regardless of whales and manipulations by institutions, BTC has years of long slow rise periods before Major Bull Runs.
And, when a major BTC Bull Run happens, it happens in the last 4 - 6 months after a couple of years of a long, slow rise.
And, we are currently just 6 months beyond the point where BTC hit bottom.
So, it is likely, if the cycle is consistent, that the market and BTC may still be 18 - 24 months away from its fifth Major Bull Run.
What could change that? Tech developments and massive adoption rates by the public. And, clearer regulation in places where that is an issue.
Is it possible we could have a Major BTC Bull Run before the next 18 - 24 months? Of course. And arguably it is likely if so much 'smart money' is putting their money into it, as we have seen the last 6 months, and even more so in the last 2 - 3 months, at an exponentially increasing rate.
Is it possible that market manipulation by players like JP Morgan Chase and others will cause the next Major BTC Bull Run? It's possible, however I would argue that it's unlikely to drive the price up as much as if the tech development and actual adoption rates by Joe Q. Public and a significant portion of companies that people use daily, weekly, monthly and annually without a second thought.
So are you Bullish on BTC and the rest of the crypto markets? Yes, I am, because I do think that even manipulation can lead to significant rises in market awareness, participation and prices. Nevertheless, I would prefer to see the next Major BTC Bull Run be the result of actual market and tech developments. I think that would be healthier for the long term stability, growth and investment value of cryptocurrencies.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Join Alpha Trading's discord at AlphaTradingHQ.com/discord to get free access to the Volatility Starter pack of indicators and chart!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.