BTC Market Cycles - Worst Case Possibility
CYCLE ANALYSIS: Most people in the Crypto Market are very fearful at present.
While I am still bullish long-term for BTC at this point that we have not reached our top for this 'Bull Run' segment of the current cycle for BTC (as measured by BTC halving's), I wanted to look at what the most bearish scenario I think is possible / worst case conditions most market participants have seen since the 2017 top with BTC might look like. Lets have a look!
On the Chart I have overlaid the COVID dump bar pattern (which surprisingly fits nicely my own personal logarithmic progression bands fits and fits in well with lengthening cycle theory pushing our cycle top out into Q1 2023).
While I would be the first to admit this is dubious speculation at its best, this worst case scenario would dip us down to only ~30K in a COVID like panic…..
While I would like to see ~40K hold for BTC and there is still a possibility in my mind this is achievable on the higher time frames (we might see a capitulation wick or in there even in this scenario); my thoughts if we do not hold this level (which does have key support on cycle and Technical criterial), then we could be targeting ~35K and then ~30K regions as shown in this example (levels also have good support in many models and TA IMO).
Ultimately in the short to medium term in cycles speak, we are playing in the sand box for most of 2021 in a crab market trading range between ~
65K to ~30K.
In this most bearish example, I would not be unhappy if BTC managed to reach ~240K by Q1 2023.
While I am still bullish long-term for BTC at this point that we have not reached our top for this 'Bull Run' segment of the current cycle for BTC (as measured by BTC halving's), I wanted to look at what the most bearish scenario I think is possible / worst case conditions most market participants have seen since the 2017 top with BTC might look like. Lets have a look!
On the Chart I have overlaid the COVID dump bar pattern (which surprisingly fits nicely my own personal logarithmic progression bands fits and fits in well with lengthening cycle theory pushing our cycle top out into Q1 2023).
While I would be the first to admit this is dubious speculation at its best, this worst case scenario would dip us down to only ~30K in a COVID like panic…..
While I would like to see ~40K hold for BTC and there is still a possibility in my mind this is achievable on the higher time frames (we might see a capitulation wick or in there even in this scenario); my thoughts if we do not hold this level (which does have key support on cycle and Technical criterial), then we could be targeting ~35K and then ~30K regions as shown in this example (levels also have good support in many models and TA IMO).
Ultimately in the short to medium term in cycles speak, we are playing in the sand box for most of 2021 in a crab market trading range between ~
65K to ~30K.In this most bearish example, I would not be unhappy if BTC managed to reach ~240K by Q1 2023.
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