Short

Bitcoin: BTCUSD Retest of lows underway

Updated

Bitcoin Update
Spent most of yesterday buying dips from around 14050 and higher, looking to increase on a break of the neckline of what
has turned out to be an imaginary reverse head and shoulders - and again on the break above another imaginary flag
formation which was then sitting at 15500 with a stop at least 100 points below the line. So we blew 150 or so points off the
top but at least managed to trap in bigger profits accumulated during the rest of a turgid, slow day of trading.
Not very good, but it could've been worse.
The pattern Bitcoin has made overnight has done nothing to improve the picture. The last comments had warned that
Bitcoin only turns bearish again on a break below 14465.
Overnight it broke this level, fell through the next blue line of
support to the next line at 13571, bounced back to test the 14465 level from the underside, turning it into resistance as it
did so and is now falling away again...every move it's made overnight has been bearish. If you were around to short on the
fall below 14465, lucky you
Now it's coming back to test the right hand 'shoulder' at
13560-13450 - Bitcoin must hold here - as this is the last real chance of support holding up and preventing another retest of
the lows. Therefore, should it fail to hold at any point today look to short on a break below 13450, looking for 12600 to
begin with and then after a potential bounce from here, look to short again from 13088 looking for a retest of the lows.
to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today.
Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin further into terrible technical trouble and likely force price all the way back to 10486 to
begin with and then to 8324.
It's beaking down now as this is written up...
Suggest closing out ALL longs on any Alt asap - we can buy back cheaper later.

Note

Touching the first level now at 12600is on the support...a bounce here and then back to the lows...

Note

It's sticking at 12600 and just under and there is more support at 12223 - (amended. blue line has been shifted a little). Don't want to trade here. Just keep powder and profits dry for now...if we see 12200 broken then look to short again back to lows - otherwise shorts should have been closed at 12600 and we await next signal

Note

Well the short was quite a good one, but was already in play bythe time the comment got posted - but if you did short at the first signal last night around midnight GMT on the break below 14465 (it turned negative again at that point as per earlier comments yesterday) then you've made 1800 points of profit overnight.
If only Bitcoin would shut down for 8 hours like everything else in the world then we wouldn't miss some amazing long and short opportunities...
Anyway, the flip side of the Bitcoin coin is that there's always another move on the horizon worth catching. So long as Bitcoin never stops moving - up or down - we have a chance of catching some of the moves, just not all.

So we a should be flat now (der, should've reversed at 12600 but that's easy to say now) and are looking to short again from higher levels - there are 3 levels of interest now: 13480, 13571 and then 13785, which is where the upper parallel of this extreme flag formation lies...that's quite a strong pin bar on the 1 hour chart so it could push to the highest level where swing traders can look to short with a stop 100 higher. For day-traders, can short from 13480 with stop 50 above - providing it looks to be sticking as it gets there. If not, watch how it behaves at 13571 and the same at 13785 which should be the limit of the rally, at least in the nearer term. (or on any touch of that small upper parallel that is containing the down-wave so far)
When it comes off it should fall away to 12223 minimum and, if this level gives way by more than 23 points or so (below 12200) back to the lows, which must hold at all costs today.
Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin even further into terrible technical trouble and likely force price all the way back to 10486 to
begin with and then to 8324.

Note

So Now Bitcoin has tested the uper parallel of the flag/the shorting point...with stops 50 to 100 above the upper parallel of the flag...it is coming off but we need it now to break lower, below the blue line of first support and then pick up some downside momentum for this short to stay good....we must be careful though...if it doesn't do this we need to be on high alert...this is a flag, potentially - with 2 strikes on the lower parallel = HOT, still...potentially....so we need to keep as open amind right now as possible... we need it to break below 13500 to show it's weak now. If we don't get it soon close out the short...and be ready to flip on a dime (it's Bitcoin,never forget) back to positive. Any break above the upper parallel should be followed once we see a successful retest of that upper parallel from above, once busted. This can either either way from here right now...open minds, follow chart.

Note

Lower stop on short to just above 13750 for rough break even if wrong from here...need it to pick up some downside momentum soon...we need to remain aware of this flag potential, still - and therefore remain alert and ready go long if the upper parallelof the flag is broken (as above comment)

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Can close this out for about 500 profit now...sticking at 13200

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Quite a good pin bar showing under the last candle on one hour chart...can push backup to the parallel where day traders can short again with 50 point stop above the upper parallel as before. But ready to reverse and get long ( and swing traders too) if this upper parallel of the flag is broken through to upside, as above comments.

Note

Big battle going on on zero volume if that's actually possible...but technically there's a big battle going on as price tries to escape the upper parallel ...cannot short until the lower rising dynamic under todays lows gives way - then we can with a stop 50 above the same dynamic..notice how when the line breaks (above continuation patterns on the chart) what happens to price... this battle canm still go either way now...we follow the chart.

Note

For continuity...if you went shoirt from the upper parallel witha stop at least 50 above you will still be short, clever you. In comment above, said cannot short until lower rising dynamic is broken to downside...shold have added aggressively to that line...it can go down to the line for a quick short, but needs to break below the support underpinning today's lows to add or get aggressively short again.
And so if you are still short close out for small profit and we await the victors of this battle - and join them when we can see the winner...break below dynamic support and we short - and clear break with some volume (not a pathetic spike and fizzle) of the upper parallel of the flag to get long again. Use stops in your head - about 100 under the break/line to begin with

Note

So we are short again because the chart told to us to. should come back to 13100 so can close out there for quick profit if touched - or lower stop to just 100 above current price if the range stays narrow as now or to 13450 for break even if wrong from here...then short again once 13000 is broken

Note

Sorry - been trying to set up a telegram channel as TV is good but has limitations.
This has come back to test the lows - or more accurately the original clsoing point of the first short this morning...just hope all shorts were closed out bang on the blue line and if not a little higher...so a double bottom/higher low and then a 4th strike on the parallel (double clips close together count as one - at which point you know by now that the power of the parallel to repel on the 5th test is spent - and you also know to get long when that upper parallel is broken on a sucessful retest - which we have just seen - and so you will be long by now with stops under the parallel by 100 points or more for now. So you don't need a guide after all... if you folllowed the chart and not your heart then you are free.
Use the speed line under the lows on chart as an exit for longs so if it fails again we get out with a small profit. This is not easy in such low volume conditions...harder to trust than usual

Note

Well that didn't go too well. We should be out around even . Just don't trust this as much as usual in such thin conditions. So am calling it a draw for the day. we made a few well over 1000 points, nearer 2 if you managed to follow the chart and not the hope in your heart. We do not trade hope. We trade patterns. And sometimes they work and make some decent profits and sometimes they don't and we get out for a small loss or even. And that's it. No big deal. So now is the time to wish you all a merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous new year. Next year we will rock Bitcoin. Until the day the great mine in the sky closes we have to hammer this. Hard. We may never see its like again in our lives. Here's to Bitcoin, and father Christmas too. X

sumastardon

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