Long

BTCUSD Prediction - LONG. Lots of volatility ahead.

Updated

Using a combination of the fib extension from the beginning of the 2017 bull run, and price action, I'm expecting a blow off top starting at 50k through around 60k, ending with a bullish retrace to 20-22k before the next leg up. This local top should end right around the 3.618 fib extension from 2017. Also, this area ends a measured move of 311% which would match the 2017 bull run. Our current price area happens to also be resistance from the 2013, 2017 tops. We could see a decent move downward here before we get going, as prior price action eludes to.

I'm macro bullish, using the S2F model as my guide until we deviate. That said, I'm expecting there to be a local top soon and a rotation into alts. Macro top will come much higher, later in the year.

Note

Well... we hit 60k and had a pretty major correction to 50k twice now. I don't think we dump to 20k as predicted earlier in the year. I think mid-low 40k is about it. I'd be surprised if we go lower here. S2F puts us somewhere in the neighborhood of $150-250k for a target. All signs point to year end being the end of this cycle.

Trade active

This is going to keep going. Look at S2F, we're still on the right path. Exchange supply continues to disappear. Business adoption continues.

Biggest hurdle right now? 58462. Happens to be the "laser eyes" top and the "bitcoin is netflix" top... Prime example of quantum superposition. The same emotion (matter) occupies the same price (space).

Note

Bitcoin is Netflix was the complacency shoulder. 20k seems inevitable now.

Note

We broke the 2019 top around election day. Breaking a 1.5yr range produced quite the move. Unfortunately, there's a good chance we come back to test these levels. I'm hoping the 2017 high holds... with bids as low as the 2019 top.

Order cancelled

BTC has deviated too far from this fractal, so the trade idea is no longer valid.

pobudz

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