BitcoinLong
Two ways to calculate a potential BTC bear market bottom price
The final Elliot Waves I am following to project a BTC final bottom to this bear market (Coinbase prices):
Aug 15 B Minute 0 $25214.57
Oct 13 Minute i $18131.00 -$7083.57
Nov 5 Minute ii $21478.80 $3357.80 47.4% of Minute i
Nov 9 Minute iii $15512.00 -$5966.80 84.2% of Minute i
Nov 10 Minute iv $18140.62 $2628.62 44.1% of Minute iii
Nov 14 Minuette (i) $15790.25 -$2350.37
Nov 18 Minuette (ii) $16984.08 $1193.83 50.8% of Minuette I
The following are just projections of Minuette waves (iii), (iv), and (v) by replication of the first two minuette waves (wave (iii) could be larger than (i) and (v); it's just an educated guess:
Nov 25 Minuette (iii) $14633.71 -$2350.37
Nov 29 Minuette (iv) $15827.54 $1193.83
Dec 4 Minuette (v), Minute v, Minor C, Intermediate (C), and end of primary wave 2: $13477.17; time is also a guess based on the time lengths of minuette waves (i) and (ii)
A second way to calculate a bottom is based on the break to the downside over the weekend of the triangle pattern that has been tracing out since the FTX bankruptcy on Nov 9th. $15512 was the low that day. The next day the high was $18140; this formed the height of the triangle. The height is $18140-$15512 = $2628. The break of the triangle support to the downside was at about $16063. The bear market low target would thus be $16063 - $2628 = $13435.
These are two methods to calculate a target and both are similar targets just below $13500. I'll be using these targets to estimate a range of $13000 to $14000 to buy BTC with fiat saved from selling alts and paycheck savings in the coming days.
Aug 15 B Minute 0 $25214.57
Oct 13 Minute i $18131.00 -$7083.57
Nov 5 Minute ii $21478.80 $3357.80 47.4% of Minute i
Nov 9 Minute iii $15512.00 -$5966.80 84.2% of Minute i
Nov 10 Minute iv $18140.62 $2628.62 44.1% of Minute iii
Nov 14 Minuette (i) $15790.25 -$2350.37
Nov 18 Minuette (ii) $16984.08 $1193.83 50.8% of Minuette I
The following are just projections of Minuette waves (iii), (iv), and (v) by replication of the first two minuette waves (wave (iii) could be larger than (i) and (v); it's just an educated guess:
Nov 25 Minuette (iii) $14633.71 -$2350.37
Nov 29 Minuette (iv) $15827.54 $1193.83
Dec 4 Minuette (v), Minute v, Minor C, Intermediate (C), and end of primary wave 2: $13477.17; time is also a guess based on the time lengths of minuette waves (i) and (ii)
A second way to calculate a bottom is based on the break to the downside over the weekend of the triangle pattern that has been tracing out since the FTX bankruptcy on Nov 9th. $15512 was the low that day. The next day the high was $18140; this formed the height of the triangle. The height is $18140-$15512 = $2628. The break of the triangle support to the downside was at about $16063. The bear market low target would thus be $16063 - $2628 = $13435.
These are two methods to calculate a target and both are similar targets just below $13500. I'll be using these targets to estimate a range of $13000 to $14000 to buy BTC with fiat saved from selling alts and paycheck savings in the coming days.
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