Fool me once... Fool me twice, shame on me. This looks like a good point of entry, but with the head and shoulders pattern completed as predicted, along with the following correction also anticipated, it is very likely that we are at the start of a bear market.
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is clearly evident in the market as leveraged traders predict high numbers, and key Bitcoin institutions are purchasing more. These companies have low average buy prices and can access additional liquidity. Retail buyers, on the other hand, find themselves trapped at high price points where they either have to sell at a loss or hold on (HODL).
It's essential to keep your liquidity safe, as Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to correct. With the average production cost of a BTC around $30,000, miner pressure and profit-taking in preparation for the next halving will come into play. Remember, miners need to sell to buy new rigs, and they create downward pressure on the market, especially when demand is low. Institutions will likely not continue buying in a bear market; instead, they may short BTC and related stocks.
Support is currently strong at $103,000, with the next levels at $101,000 and $97,000. If these support levels break, we could fall below the 200 MA (Moving Average) and enter a bear market, which would create additional selling pressure and could push the price down to approximately $40,000.
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is clearly evident in the market as leveraged traders predict high numbers, and key Bitcoin institutions are purchasing more. These companies have low average buy prices and can access additional liquidity. Retail buyers, on the other hand, find themselves trapped at high price points where they either have to sell at a loss or hold on (HODL).
It's essential to keep your liquidity safe, as Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to correct. With the average production cost of a BTC around $30,000, miner pressure and profit-taking in preparation for the next halving will come into play. Remember, miners need to sell to buy new rigs, and they create downward pressure on the market, especially when demand is low. Institutions will likely not continue buying in a bear market; instead, they may short BTC and related stocks.
Support is currently strong at $103,000, with the next levels at $101,000 and $97,000. If these support levels break, we could fall below the 200 MA (Moving Average) and enter a bear market, which would create additional selling pressure and could push the price down to approximately $40,000.
Trade active
The head and shoulders pattern is still in play, and the recent correction was likely a result of geopolitical turmoil and over-leveraged traders in long positions. The next few weeks are critical; if Bitcoin (BTC) completes the head and shoulders pattern, it will likely move to the downside. Based on previous cycles during the bull run, this could indicate the start of the next bear cycle.If BTC can hold its position and make a move to the upside, then the critical resistance level to break is $12,500. This long-term trend line, dating back to 2016, has consistently marked the peak of the bull run. While this could be a good point to short BTC, I personally never bet against it. However, we don't have much time left in this bull cycle, and the market is becoming greedy and overhyped. Remember long term sustained greed is as as bad as short term extreme greed, but its less noticable to the general investor. Gold I beleive is also in the same situation.
Trading volume per day has significantly dropped since its peak in March 2024, indicating that the market is running out of steam. This could lead to selling pressure and the normal correction in its four-year cycle, which typically involves a 60%-70% correction from the all-time high (ATH).
Trade closed: target reached
Don't be fooled, the break out is a bull trap. Daily trading volume is still dropping. I am not a BTC bear, but I have been here before, when FOMO kicks in you need to get out. Upside potential in short term could be 10-30%, but with a downside risk of 60-70% as per past market cycles make sure you are willing to hold for 4+ years. BTC will go to a million but not in this cycle. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.