BTC Realtime Analyse #4
Updated
Hi Guys,
I came back with another weekly BTC Realtime.How soon time pass and i had best times with you here,you made me happy and sad with your comments and messages and honestly i turn more accurate after i started to write here for you in TV.So let's go to BTC chart and see what we have there.
So after a incomplete swing in our downward channel from 10k BTC started to fall without stop.These days we have a very very low trust in market and by that we have not no new money to hold BTC from falling,but Guys don't worry it's not the end of world or BTC.At least we are in our downward channel yet and did not crash.As i predicted each BTC moves in my last BTC realtime we broke our huge wedge bottom but we have a backup for that.i draw it here below than older one with dashed line.
As you saw in my last update in last idea we reached to my ultimate reversal zone(red box) but there isn't any sign of life yet.So i move my expectation to downward channel bottom impact and think we will change our way as soon as touch that blue line in chart below.
One thing that i think about it much is that in last week we did not made an impact to upper line of our channel and because of market weakness we started to fall before impact.So i found out maybe we had some bigger problem there on 6800 resistance.So i draw this new channel(with red dotted line).
As you can see it's like a bullish wedge but it's too early to can count on it but maybe this wedge can help BTC to break downward channel from 10k.After all we have 3 bullish wedge in our chart that i believe in them yet.
Like always these days you see here in TV anybody talk again about dooms day and BTC 1-3k and etc... .I do not deny that possibility but what i want to say is all moves have a logic.3 mounth ago i post an idea about BTC 4k and i believe in it yet but as you remember my Yellow Scenario i had a logic for it and after 3 month i have those logics yet and think maybe we reach there but not with a crash,we need to stick to our trendlines and monitor BTC moves without any Feeling.Now we are still in Channel and don't break it but no one see this.We have to at least make a positive swing after impact with channel and then we can go lower.First we need an impact or break,then a correction and after all maybe we go lower.
So Let's Check RSI.We have an obvious hidden bullish divergence in RSI 4HR.Look at it
If we want to validate this theory we need to hold this line.It can be just a recovery but soon to judge in any way.
In momentum indicator you can see it have less bearish momentum but not reliable.we need to see price move up to confirm these signs.
After all i need to say this again.Maybe we see revers here but if it don't come with enough Volume,we will soon end it and go lower again.
Thanks all of you that joined me here and in my Telegram channel @ t.me/peymana71.I really appreciate all kindness an togetherness you bring for me and hope can continue my work well.I will start Working on Telegram as soon as it reach to proper followers.
Love you
Peyman A
I came back with another weekly BTC Realtime.How soon time pass and i had best times with you here,you made me happy and sad with your comments and messages and honestly i turn more accurate after i started to write here for you in TV.So let's go to BTC chart and see what we have there.
So after a incomplete swing in our downward channel from 10k BTC started to fall without stop.These days we have a very very low trust in market and by that we have not no new money to hold BTC from falling,but Guys don't worry it's not the end of world or BTC.At least we are in our downward channel yet and did not crash.As i predicted each BTC moves in my last BTC realtime we broke our huge wedge bottom but we have a backup for that.i draw it here below than older one with dashed line.
As you saw in my last update in last idea we reached to my ultimate reversal zone(red box) but there isn't any sign of life yet.So i move my expectation to downward channel bottom impact and think we will change our way as soon as touch that blue line in chart below.
One thing that i think about it much is that in last week we did not made an impact to upper line of our channel and because of market weakness we started to fall before impact.So i found out maybe we had some bigger problem there on 6800 resistance.So i draw this new channel(with red dotted line).
As you can see it's like a bullish wedge but it's too early to can count on it but maybe this wedge can help BTC to break downward channel from 10k.After all we have 3 bullish wedge in our chart that i believe in them yet.
Like always these days you see here in TV anybody talk again about dooms day and BTC 1-3k and etc... .I do not deny that possibility but what i want to say is all moves have a logic.3 mounth ago i post an idea about BTC 4k and i believe in it yet but as you remember my Yellow Scenario i had a logic for it and after 3 month i have those logics yet and think maybe we reach there but not with a crash,we need to stick to our trendlines and monitor BTC moves without any Feeling.Now we are still in Channel and don't break it but no one see this.We have to at least make a positive swing after impact with channel and then we can go lower.First we need an impact or break,then a correction and after all maybe we go lower.
So Let's Check RSI.We have an obvious hidden bullish divergence in RSI 4HR.Look at it
If we want to validate this theory we need to hold this line.It can be just a recovery but soon to judge in any way.
In momentum indicator you can see it have less bearish momentum but not reliable.we need to see price move up to confirm these signs.
After all i need to say this again.Maybe we see revers here but if it don't come with enough Volume,we will soon end it and go lower again.
Thanks all of you that joined me here and in my Telegram channel @ t.me/peymana71.I really appreciate all kindness an togetherness you bring for me and hope can continue my work well.I will start Working on Telegram as soon as it reach to proper followers.
Love you
Peyman A
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This is what i talked about.Right after touch my red area bottom and wedge bounce $400.
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Our bounce stop exactly where last night bounce end and we start to drop.I see lot possibility here and have room to drop around 5920 to form a perfect iH&S.if we made this head and shoulder we will reach 6450 at least.Note
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But we can break this resistance even without an iH&S.just need more volume to push us up.In this situation good volume even can make a $1000 bounce in a minute.I entered market around 5800 and have an stop around my entry.Note
It's funny and maybe i'm wrong but many analysts here Copy my charts exactly after i publish.It's Funnier that they talk about 4000 before i post this and after that little bounce suddenly they see a bullish wedge here and talk about going higher.Hope they be careful.Note
Now we have MACD Bullish crossover on 4H time frame and a little reversal sign in RSI that show us we need a little drop for another attack to resistance area.Note
So we starting to shape right shoulder,now we have to not go lower that 5870.
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What we have here?So i identified an iH&S perfect,it's worked but not very well.after a fake break out BTC came back and retest a neckline and finally won the game but couldnt't break 6300 resistance too.Now we have some weakness and about to test neckline as a support,need to hold this area and start anther attack to 6300 RES but if we drop of this support everything turn very bearish,again.now i try to find a new pattern and sign for upcoming moves.
Note
Hello my friends
Excuse me for my absence but i engaged by last days World Cup games too much and gave myself break for half of day.So let's check what we have in market:
As you saw market have a lot weakness in anyway.It became like someone numb,can't mpve to anyway and that's what is really bad.it's like it want to stay in this area for lomg time but all of us know that can't be impossible.We formed a Rising Wedge with our movements and it's a bearish pattern lead us to a drop.Rememnber if we test last bottoms around 5800 again with this weakness it's hard to hold there too and we wull look for lower after that but maybe BTC won't go that low again.Remember this,if we hold this area we wil go up eventually with buy pressure.I hold my stop where i add it first and have no plan to move it yet.
So let's watch what will happen.
Note
We dropped out of that wedge and now stop around 6050 support with another wedge and weakness again but i started to see something that is very weird abd really good but i can’t say it know,first i need to sure about that.Sorry that i have not a chart with my update,i was out of my office all day and now posting with my phone.Note
Just find a find a laptop for a quick update,so let's see what we have again:We have a bullish wedge (with red lines)that started from 7250-7300 inside downward channel(dotted blue line) from 10k.At the end of trend we have a bearish wedge(black line) that evolved with last night update wedge.Now let's compare somethings together.Look at yellow circle and blue one in our bullish wedge.they are very similar.With this logic we have an answer that after we reach to our red line with this black wedge(yellow circle) we will drop again to make another low in our bullish wedge And whole btc last days movements was a bear flag.So all of these are very obvious and of course not good at all.So let's zoom in little.
This is what i did not want to talk about.Do you remember iH&S that i spokeabout last days right after that bounce from bottom 5760 and i thought it work? Now i think we are just in middle of forming right shoulder of that iH&S but it's very weird and have little chance to occur but have a chance.Why little chance?Because we are in a bearish wedge and we have bearish reversal signs in RSI and even we are close to make a bearish crossover in MACD,too.Yeah i think i illustrate HELL for you in best way i could.But with a very little hope.Don't forget this fact that if we drop to 5907 we will evolve this bearish wedge to a normal channel and buy more possibility for our IH&S.So we need to wait and see what happen.
Good Luck for now.
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It seems BTC waited for my update for starting to drop.lolNote
So BTC move along wedge without slow, weak and without any sign of accumulation ,Not much wise to draw 3 possibility for BTC but this situation let just open different possibilities instead one exact target prediction,at least it help to know what can happen soon.
As you see in my chart i have arrows in 3 different color.We are in a bearish wedge in a bigger bullish wedge in downward channel.
If we go up like green arrow before reach to our red dotted line we form iH&S in my last update and have more chance to break bullish wedge and bounce from it to our downward channel from 10k resistance but with this weakness it have a little chance.
If we drop like red arrow from this black bearish wedge before touch our bullish wedge roof,it's have good chance to reach again to our last lows area and make a double bottom and after that try stronger to break bullish wedge and reach downward channel resistance.
But if we continue to move by blue arrow to made an impact with red dotted line i think it will drop harder after impact and will reach us to bottom of channel/wedge again around 5200-5400.I think blue arrows show us much more weakness of market and with that weakness BTC must to go lower to see some volume and money in market. Unfortunately i think blue scenario have more possibility and after that red scenario but as i said before in this situation i have not clear signal here and certainly if i had not hope to green scenario i did not mentioned it at all. Anything possible know,even after we reach at the end of first blue arrow it can bounce up from there,as you van see in chart bellow that area is a important resistance in ichimoku too.
Because all uncertainly in market,i don't suggest to enter trade now before we can realize better market path and those who entered with me at last lows don't forget a stop around 5699-5750.
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Sorry i post second chart wrong,this is it :Note
Now look again to similarities of this bear flags.Now look at frequent patterns in RSI for accompaniment trend.After that look at two blue circle and similarities with each other.There is just one thing is good in RSI,look at this:
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So Red Arrow scenario won and we reach to our last lows area and there is not any sign of bounce or interest in BTC.We have a Triangle now but not a clear one,so it's better to say we just hold this support that i think can't trust in it too much.
But let's look at chart in bigger picture now.if we don't look at downward channel from 10k as a bullish wedge,we have 2 another Bullish Wedge here at the end of trend.Forgot about those huge wedges from 3 month ago.See this.
I see Very bullish Outlook here even if we go lower but honestly i think even if BTC go down,it can't much lower that 5400.
I have my stop on yet and don't want to change it.
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Please Like and comment your ideas here,we are close to BTC Realtime #5 and this topic need a better Goodbye guys.Note
Congratulation BTC,you ran of that Misery finally.So both of my baby wedges worked perfect and push BTC to most important RESISTANCE out there,yeah guys we reach to our downward channel roof and after an impact it push us little low.we loose our first attempt but hold that area with a Bull Flag,So don't worry and excited.We have a chance that we go lower and use bigger wedge as a Support ,i draw a 2 Support area in green and 1 huge resistance area in red.we need to stay between red area and first green area.if we go lower than first green area it have a big chance to print a head for a horrible H&S.So i move my stop little higher ,between second and first Support area at 5999.Don't forget that we are still in downward channel from 10k and do not enter trade by feeling.
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For those that don't know this pattern,This is ADAM & EVE pattern and we know it as a short term reversal pattern.It's one of the signs that made me more confident about this trend.Let's see what happen.
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Just for clarify areas.
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Are we gonna continue with sideways again?I think YES.Guys don't forget that Market locate in very bad situation now,There is a lot uncertainly in market and must not have huge expectation now,Just we have to hold this area until trust back to market and we see new money and volume push it over the resistance,I want to say it in different way,if you see another bounce over blue dotted line for next 12 hour,be sure it will be a very strong rally,but i see that as a miracle now.
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And i forgot to add this too,we are above ichimoku cloud in 4hr,this is a very bullish pattern.we need to see what will be reaction of price in next touch.
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And we have Alts that almost all bounce with BTC,more and less and it was always a good sign,we just need another bounce over 6700-800 area to exit this downward channel at least.Note
ETH Analyse,hope BTC don't damage it like always.
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ADA new Analyse is ready,too.
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Guys i see strong moves and strength in market.we made 2 effort to bounce from this flag and still couldn't achieved to that goal,but i think it's possible soon.
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BTC RealTime #5 arrived,join me there.
Thanks all of your likes ,comments and messages that made me really happy.
GoodBye my Number 4.
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