Updated

BTC : Bearish Divergence ? Something to watch anyway

Something to consider....seems to be occurring on many Alt Coins' Charts as well.

I closed my Short position last night after the pump, only really paying Brokerage Fees. Will consider opening again if we fail a break through of $7780 (if we get the high).

Will be interesting to see which way BTC goes over next 24 hours

I'm cheering for the Bulls, but I'm cautiously watching the Bears, too.

Good luck :-)

Note

The current price action will need to resolve within next 5-7 hours: Either Bull-break or Bear-break. Bear-break could see us re-visit $7250, where more decisions will need to be made.

Price Action is starting to look familiar. Look at the little pump & short-squeeze on 24th May at 12:30pm UTC. We quickly went from circa $7270 to $7530, then a grinding Ascending Channel, then a Bear-break.... we're starting to look similar right now.

Some will argue that we were more oversold on the Daily RSI now than compared 24th May. We were only marginally more oversold on the Daily; and smaller time frames were virtually the same levels.

OF COURSE, one BIG & SIGNIFICANT difference is that yesterday's Bull move created a Higher-High on the Daily, and we're set for the same today. We'll need a Daily High-Low soon, then we can start getting excited about a Trend Change :-)

Nevertheless, if Bulls don't take charge in the next few hours and smash through $7600 and then $7780, then confidence will wane. A drop below in $7395 in the next few hours will not bode well for the Bulls in the short-term, IMH0.

I'm not taking a position yet because we're kinda in "No Man's Land" presently.

Please keep in mind that I am a Day Trader, and that all moves I'm referring to could be very short-term. In the long-term, I'm very Bullish on BTC and the like.

Stay sharp :-)

Note

Similarities with the Patterns around 24 & 25 May continue to play out, IMH0. Too early to know which way we're likely to break. If a Higher-High wasn't made yesterday, I'd be confident we're breaking Bearish, but not this time.

I have seen some people try to liken yesterday's Bull-run to 12th April capitulation and Bull run / Short-squeeze.. I don't agree with that analysis.

On 12th April, we rocketed 18.5% within 4 hours; pulled back maybe 5%, and then shot up another 9%. Yesterday we popped only around 5.5%, pulled back very slightly, and then only moved up another 2.5%.

To me, this says that we PROBABLY didn't reach the bottom this time at circa $7,000 and the Bulls are somewhat indecisive presently (and less Shorts were squeezed).

Let's be honest:

If 7K really was the bottom yesterday, we would've probably rocketed from 7K to $7750, then pushed maybe beyond 8K or at-least be knocking at the door of 8K. And then today be sitting, I don't know, around $8200.

If we remove our natural (for most Traders) Bullish emotions & bias: Are we really convinced of this move yet? I wish I could say "Yes", but I'm not.

I think we could easily visit $7780 over next day or so, but I'm starting to lean Bearish. Even if we hit $7780, right now, I feel like Bulls could easily lose steam by then.

I'm watching around $7450 on the smaller time frames. If we see a waterfall moment below that price, Bulls confidence will no doubt waver for the short-term.

In theory, anything above 7K would still be a Higher-Low, but if we get a decisive move down to $7230, that will be a shot to Bulls stomachs, and they could start to slowly bleed out.

....and then out come the Wolves (Bears).

Let's watch and see what pans out :-)

Note

Sorry for delay in update...I've been busy with Life.

Looks like the Bearish Divergence and Rising Channel proved valid, as we saw the waterfall moment to the downside hitting $7310, and then $7275.

Bulls have made a nice recovery, but I'm not super convinced yet... are you?

We've just seen a move to $7600, but if we don't see a strong move above $7700 and the the Fib level at $7780, then it's probably all for nothing, A Fake Out. And I'll consider going short around $7780 if the Bulls are anemic.

Over the next day or so, we COULD fall to $7200; and I 'feel' like that is likely scenario right now. If we make an emphatic move below $7200, then the Bears will roll back into Town, and we'll be re-testing $7000.

The Fractals and Pattern similarity over the past few days compared with the 24 & 25 May shouldn't be ignored. Arguably, the 'Canary in the Coal Mine'. Meaning, we could be in a little Bull Trap.

The Sinister Rouge is coming back for more (again) - to even the score.

Just as we popped up out of the larger Descending Wedge on 29th May, we're now in a larger Ascending Wedge.

Bulls & Bears seems to be respecting this Wedge, again. If we don't see some real confidence from the Bulls over the next 12 hours, the Wedge will be honored, and we'll see the waterfall moment, again.

Good luck out there...

Note

Interesting note to tie into my above Comment from today:

The Bull Volume was 4x the amount on 12th April compared to 29th May.

To me, this indicates that (for the time being) we had reached the bottom on the 12th April and capitulated. Not all recoveries have to be the same, I realize that.

But put it this way:

Imagine if we were suddenly going to hit 6K (or even 5K or for some people)...think of how much Bull Volume would suddenly flood the Market and the pump & short-squeeze would be HUGE, and the subsequent days/weeks would see solid gains, too.

Was $7,000 really our floor? Or have the Bears set Traps for Bulls..?

Note

Looking a little shakey... Bulls don’t want a 30min or 1HR Candle to close below $7485.

We’re teetering on the edge.

Next few hours will be very important.

Note

Update Analysis:

BTC - Sinster Rouge and Acid Rain ahead (ichimoku cloud)

mhfcrypto

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