The divergant elephant in the room
Updated
Still stuck in a wedge with lots of key points at play.
Above us, we've the Head and Shoulders neckline, which dependent on where you draw the line, has already been tested and rejected, though somewhat unconvincing from both the bull and bear camps in terms of volume. This suggests indecision and that the masses are waiting to see which way the wind will blow. Only a convincing break of that neckline with volume will validate the H&S setup, and line up a target of around 17K.
Wave counts suggest we are in, or have maybe completed, sub wave v of wave 3 - Wave 3 being maybe the longest wave, but leaving no room for Wave 5 without breaking the overhead neckline. Bad count set-up bulls! Possible need for correction and aiming again.
The wedge we are in is made up of the pitchfork lower line and the uptrending pink dotted line above us, with the two narrowing in focus and being intersected by the H&S neckline.
Meanwhile, the big elephant in the room on the 1 hour is the bearish divergence on the MACD which is suggesting bulls sleeping on their backs and not convinced the time is now.
In summary, I think we might need a break down to build momentum. I'm not ruling out a bull party just yet, but a little break down to around 10,400 might just give the spring that's needed to break up.
Above us, we've the Head and Shoulders neckline, which dependent on where you draw the line, has already been tested and rejected, though somewhat unconvincing from both the bull and bear camps in terms of volume. This suggests indecision and that the masses are waiting to see which way the wind will blow. Only a convincing break of that neckline with volume will validate the H&S setup, and line up a target of around 17K.
Wave counts suggest we are in, or have maybe completed, sub wave v of wave 3 - Wave 3 being maybe the longest wave, but leaving no room for Wave 5 without breaking the overhead neckline. Bad count set-up bulls! Possible need for correction and aiming again.
The wedge we are in is made up of the pitchfork lower line and the uptrending pink dotted line above us, with the two narrowing in focus and being intersected by the H&S neckline.
Meanwhile, the big elephant in the room on the 1 hour is the bearish divergence on the MACD which is suggesting bulls sleeping on their backs and not convinced the time is now.
In summary, I think we might need a break down to build momentum. I'm not ruling out a bull party just yet, but a little break down to around 10,400 might just give the spring that's needed to break up.
Note
So wedge broken out over night (thank god - it was driving me up the wall staring at that triangle), and bulls left slightly squeaky bummed with the extent of the subwave v of wave 3. If we are indeed in a wave 4 minor correction (which has extended down to the top of subwave i of wave 3), then the whole move looks minimal and lacking power. Wouldn't be surprised to see a LH or double top on the next rise and then a significant correction. Lets see!
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