Bitcoin - Bulls in a Herd of Cows - STAMPEDE
Updated
Now that the market has turned so has the sentiment of most so called "technical analysts", and they are feeding into the herd. Whether you are a bull in a herd of cows, you are still part of the herd. Many are just guessing at direction, and do not understand how markets work in general. We could go here, we could go there, and then grandstand when it happens, of course often they are taking both sides of the trade yet never post an actual one.
For the past few months we kept on hearing 2500-3000-4500 from the leaders of the cows, and the many that followed are now feeding into the FOMO which plays nicely into our hand! In one of my chat groups, one buddy was holding out for 4500 and another sold his holdings a couple days ago "throwing in the towel". Others were simply waiting for volume to pick up. These are relative indicators of a market bottom along with the other evidence we have mentioned, as you need not turn on the weather channel to see if it is raining outside.
I have mentioned over and over sentiment is what drives markets, and sentiment can change on a dime, and if you are not positioned you are often left chasing a ship that left port. So have you missed the boat?
Though it has been a long and somewhat painful correction for us long term holders, it appears we are setting up for a bullish rally and for now our eyes are on 7780 before we can look for a pullback which may setup nicely for a position trade. Large institutions accumulate under the radar, during periods of low volume. We mentioned over the past couple weeks this is evident in the chart and the lack of volatility within the prevailing correction from 9k. They do not just jump in with huge orders they accumulate under the guise of a weak market (Paul Tudor Jones often went to extreme lengths to disguise his buy orders), so those that were looking at volume as a sign of large investors accumulating, were missing the evidence signaling they already were. We had all the signs, the custodial issue resolved, the filing for several bitcoin' etfs, the rounded bottom, and mostly calm waters'.
The 7457 level was our initial target but to be fair and honest, I did not think we would get there in a single day let alone a single move in one hour. However, because we have been focused on the broader picture it was labeled on our charts. So when the move happened, in lieu of reacting to our emotions, we just stayed calm as it rallied to a level where we were expecting a top anyways. This is where we can look to take action, and though our last trade post came within a $1.25 of filling, we can be more aggressive with the next one as the pattern is setting up nicely. Keep in mind this was a strong move so it is possible to have an extended rally to 7780 as the herd stampede to what they see as greener pastures, but we have an early candle formation and pattern that is showing exhaustion at this level. Let the market play out, do not guess here!
What we are looking for on S.C. is a pullback to the 6850-6980 level which offers the best setup for a swing trade. This market is on fire so a correction to the 7170 area would still validate our count and this may offer a more risky swing trade out of shallow support for 7780. Regardless we have not missed the boat! Have patience and let the market determine the setup do not try and guess the direction as this is more often than not a coin flip. Lets not forget though we have bought into the correction, we still have cash ready to trade. This is where we can turn those accumulations at higher levels from red to black and start widdeling down our average costs.
This does not imply we can not move lower, it implies that the probability of making a new low is decreasing. A failed low or 6100 is that line in the sand. More likely we are setting up for a rally to 8k where the bears will start pounding the 2500 table again!
For the past few months we kept on hearing 2500-3000-4500 from the leaders of the cows, and the many that followed are now feeding into the FOMO which plays nicely into our hand! In one of my chat groups, one buddy was holding out for 4500 and another sold his holdings a couple days ago "throwing in the towel". Others were simply waiting for volume to pick up. These are relative indicators of a market bottom along with the other evidence we have mentioned, as you need not turn on the weather channel to see if it is raining outside.
I have mentioned over and over sentiment is what drives markets, and sentiment can change on a dime, and if you are not positioned you are often left chasing a ship that left port. So have you missed the boat?
Though it has been a long and somewhat painful correction for us long term holders, it appears we are setting up for a bullish rally and for now our eyes are on 7780 before we can look for a pullback which may setup nicely for a position trade. Large institutions accumulate under the radar, during periods of low volume. We mentioned over the past couple weeks this is evident in the chart and the lack of volatility within the prevailing correction from 9k. They do not just jump in with huge orders they accumulate under the guise of a weak market (Paul Tudor Jones often went to extreme lengths to disguise his buy orders), so those that were looking at volume as a sign of large investors accumulating, were missing the evidence signaling they already were. We had all the signs, the custodial issue resolved, the filing for several bitcoin' etfs, the rounded bottom, and mostly calm waters'.
The 7457 level was our initial target but to be fair and honest, I did not think we would get there in a single day let alone a single move in one hour. However, because we have been focused on the broader picture it was labeled on our charts. So when the move happened, in lieu of reacting to our emotions, we just stayed calm as it rallied to a level where we were expecting a top anyways. This is where we can look to take action, and though our last trade post came within a $1.25 of filling, we can be more aggressive with the next one as the pattern is setting up nicely. Keep in mind this was a strong move so it is possible to have an extended rally to 7780 as the herd stampede to what they see as greener pastures, but we have an early candle formation and pattern that is showing exhaustion at this level. Let the market play out, do not guess here!
What we are looking for on S.C. is a pullback to the 6850-6980 level which offers the best setup for a swing trade. This market is on fire so a correction to the 7170 area would still validate our count and this may offer a more risky swing trade out of shallow support for 7780. Regardless we have not missed the boat! Have patience and let the market determine the setup do not try and guess the direction as this is more often than not a coin flip. Lets not forget though we have bought into the correction, we still have cash ready to trade. This is where we can turn those accumulations at higher levels from red to black and start widdeling down our average costs.
This does not imply we can not move lower, it implies that the probability of making a new low is decreasing. A failed low or 6100 is that line in the sand. More likely we are setting up for a rally to 8k where the bears will start pounding the 2500 table again!
Note
FAKE NEWS UPDATE:Contrary to the rumor, neither Marc or I are leaving trading view. Over the past 9 months many relationships and friends have been made. We both continue to support those that supported us early on. Trading view's team has been great to work with and we will continue to both post regularly supporting them and our followers.
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