In the TradingView columns dated April 14 and April 22, we offered two analyses of the bitcoin price with a bullish anticipation. Since then, the market has moved in an upward direction, and our technical and fundamental views seem to have been confirmed.
I therefore invite you to take the time to reread our two previous analyses of the bitcoin price, which are attached to this new article. Our market view is updated in this new analysis.
BTC has thus confirmed its alignment with the evolution of global money supply (M2 global liquidity)
The study of bitcoin's price history over the last 15 years has highlighted a very interesting positive correlation. This positive correlation links the trend in global money supply to the underlying trend in the bitcoin price.
The BTC market is indeed volatile and speculative, and its price orientation is therefore strongly influenced by the amount of liquidity in circulation worldwide. It is the M2 monetary aggregate that best represents the liquidity present in a country at a given time, and it is therefore the sum of the M2s of the world's major economies that constitutes the global money supply.
The table below provides an overview of how the global money supply or global liquidity is calculated.
The bitcoin price is breaking through resistance, confirming its positive correlation with global liquidity, taking into account a time lag of around 80 days
The bitcoin price has risen by over 12% since the beginning of April, and this week saw an important technical signal. BTC made a bullish technical break of resistance at 88,000 US dollars, the former lower end of the trading range that extended from December to February.
Breaching this technical threshold is a promising first signal that bitcoin's upward recovery is set to continue. Naturally, we need to remain cautious, and confirmation at the next weekly technical close will validate this market price rebound.
In any case, and as the chart below shows, Bitcoin still seems to be acting in correlation with the global liquidity trend, and if this correlation continues to exist, then the second half of spring could see the price of BTC rise towards its all-time high.
This market view would be invalidated should the new technical support at 88,000 US dollars be broken.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
I therefore invite you to take the time to reread our two previous analyses of the bitcoin price, which are attached to this new article. Our market view is updated in this new analysis.
BTC has thus confirmed its alignment with the evolution of global money supply (M2 global liquidity)
The study of bitcoin's price history over the last 15 years has highlighted a very interesting positive correlation. This positive correlation links the trend in global money supply to the underlying trend in the bitcoin price.
The BTC market is indeed volatile and speculative, and its price orientation is therefore strongly influenced by the amount of liquidity in circulation worldwide. It is the M2 monetary aggregate that best represents the liquidity present in a country at a given time, and it is therefore the sum of the M2s of the world's major economies that constitutes the global money supply.
The table below provides an overview of how the global money supply or global liquidity is calculated.
The bitcoin price is breaking through resistance, confirming its positive correlation with global liquidity, taking into account a time lag of around 80 days
The bitcoin price has risen by over 12% since the beginning of April, and this week saw an important technical signal. BTC made a bullish technical break of resistance at 88,000 US dollars, the former lower end of the trading range that extended from December to February.
Breaching this technical threshold is a promising first signal that bitcoin's upward recovery is set to continue. Naturally, we need to remain cautious, and confirmation at the next weekly technical close will validate this market price rebound.
In any case, and as the chart below shows, Bitcoin still seems to be acting in correlation with the global liquidity trend, and if this correlation continues to exist, then the second half of spring could see the price of BTC rise towards its all-time high.
This market view would be invalidated should the new technical support at 88,000 US dollars be broken.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.