Wyckoff – Have the Spring been reached?
Updated
An update to the Wyckoff Chart, adjusting the pattern for the past few days of price action that has seen Bitcoin break to new lows, recover and then fall to retest the low zone.
This looks like a text book structure for Phase C of the Wyckoff Method, and if continuing to hold to this pattern, we should see Bitcoin begin its rally to new highs starting from here.
However, I still feel there is a likelihood that the bottom of the spring might not have been reached.
For instance, I have a very hard time confirming that there is a 5-wave count to the bottom of the Spring and there seems to be persistent weakness, with the MACD looking bearish and a firm rejection at the 20MA that delivered a bearish engulfing bar.
On top of that, the recent low has fallen short of both the correction projected from the Head & Shoulders pattern and the Fibonacci retracement for wave C…while there are still signs of weakness.
Perhaps the lack of a bullish reversal signal, or the prevalence of bearish indicators doesn’t matter in the world of Wyckoff price manipulation, but I am cautious here that the Spring has not yet been reached and we could still see a brief but sharp move to the downside. So I think I am bearish while price remains under 35k.
This looks like a text book structure for Phase C of the Wyckoff Method, and if continuing to hold to this pattern, we should see Bitcoin begin its rally to new highs starting from here.
However, I still feel there is a likelihood that the bottom of the spring might not have been reached.
For instance, I have a very hard time confirming that there is a 5-wave count to the bottom of the Spring and there seems to be persistent weakness, with the MACD looking bearish and a firm rejection at the 20MA that delivered a bearish engulfing bar.
On top of that, the recent low has fallen short of both the correction projected from the Head & Shoulders pattern and the Fibonacci retracement for wave C…while there are still signs of weakness.
Perhaps the lack of a bullish reversal signal, or the prevalence of bearish indicators doesn’t matter in the world of Wyckoff price manipulation, but I am cautious here that the Spring has not yet been reached and we could still see a brief but sharp move to the downside. So I think I am bearish while price remains under 35k.
Note
I've notices a recurring pattern in the 1-hr chart that has caught my attention:One can see the recurring pattern of the MA200 twice confirming resistance and the MA20 confirming support following a bullish cross of the MA20 over the MA50.
I also note that the MACD is similar in both circumstances.
Will we see a significant correction follow on now, I wonder, as it did on the first occurrence?
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