Trend Reactionary Numbers Natural Contraction & Expansion
MY DAILY RANT :
As prices advance and decline the Market creates new important foot prints for astute traders to gain clues from. In my opinion the market is creating mini Waves that are at first random based on the two main factors of market traders personalities, Fear and Greed. When the market has expanded into new territory or reacted down into new territory the hourly, daily and weekly fluctuations are very difficult to forecast. This is where the masses lose capital. In the market the crowd is wrong 90% of the time because the majority of traders are following current price movements, those that followed earliest have the greatest chance to profit, however, they do not know when to escape and tend to lose the gains that were luckily attained {once again to emotions of Greed and Fear, a never ending vicious circle for the neophyte}. In short most traders do not like to think or study it is not an easy task. Thinking and Study require patience and effort. I once read a profound statement "Patience is not a virtue of the weak". That short statement helped me immensely, I was once guilty of all those market sins and more which I will detail in future posts. Now back to the task at hand, the explanation. My take on the market has evolved through my 30 years of active market participation, and one major {for me } paradigm shift occurred when I shifted away from the temporal use of Time. I realized that having a temporal Belief was creating confusion in slow or fast moving markets. Whenever you create confusion it produces frustration which creates non-adaptive behavior that gets you STUCK and that creates losses. I would bet that 99% of the traders that are reading this post if asked for their definitions of short, intermediate, and long term would respond in some sort of time factor. Many would say that short term is 3 days or less, Intermediate is 2 weeks and long term is monthly or some combination of those time factors. These widely used terms and definitions over time {no pun intended} did not serve me well. They may be appropriate for the non professional trader to describe how long he wishes to hold a position or to describe market movements as he understands them, but not for the professional. I had come to realize that due to increased volatility, speed of market news dissemination and Blog Factors {think Game Stop for example} market movements that in the past took weeks or months are now being completed in days or sometimes hours. I adopted different descriptions of short, intermediate, and long term to percentage price movements instead of specific time intervals. This one shift in beliefs allowed me to see mathematically how far a market moved and at what speed it was moving {based on the time factor}. It gave me an ability to realize an Intermediate move{for example} was happening very quickly and that alerted me to look for escape levels for profits or to cut a loser.
Consider These Percentages:
Ultra Short Term 1/2 % {.005} - 1.9%
Short Term 2% - 2.99%
Standard Term 3.0% - 3.99%
Medium Term 4%- 5.99%
Standard Medium Term 6% - 8.99%
Long Term 9% and above.
Through trail and error and years of experimenting I discovered that Price movements determine FUTURE Price movements. Markets have a dominate tendency to exhibit support and resistance at price points defined by percentage increases and declines of past Peak to Trough movements and vice versa. I was able to approximate the ideal ratio values to determine these future points of support and resistance. These levels have become my propriety Trend Reactionary Numbers that through natural market movements need to be adjusted. You will ascertain with the help of my TRNS that market movements assemble themselves into a few conspicuous types of action that have a certain orderliness. This orderliness is the price expression of human nature, or market psychology it is where we get to watch what drives traders to do what they do. It is a picture of the most powerful human habits. The habits of Fear, Hope and Greed are all charted out for us to observe and take advantage of.
As prices advance and decline the Market creates new important foot prints for astute traders to gain clues from. In my opinion the market is creating mini Waves that are at first random based on the two main factors of market traders personalities, Fear and Greed. When the market has expanded into new territory or reacted down into new territory the hourly, daily and weekly fluctuations are very difficult to forecast. This is where the masses lose capital. In the market the crowd is wrong 90% of the time because the majority of traders are following current price movements, those that followed earliest have the greatest chance to profit, however, they do not know when to escape and tend to lose the gains that were luckily attained {once again to emotions of Greed and Fear, a never ending vicious circle for the neophyte}. In short most traders do not like to think or study it is not an easy task. Thinking and Study require patience and effort. I once read a profound statement "Patience is not a virtue of the weak". That short statement helped me immensely, I was once guilty of all those market sins and more which I will detail in future posts. Now back to the task at hand, the explanation. My take on the market has evolved through my 30 years of active market participation, and one major {for me } paradigm shift occurred when I shifted away from the temporal use of Time. I realized that having a temporal Belief was creating confusion in slow or fast moving markets. Whenever you create confusion it produces frustration which creates non-adaptive behavior that gets you STUCK and that creates losses. I would bet that 99% of the traders that are reading this post if asked for their definitions of short, intermediate, and long term would respond in some sort of time factor. Many would say that short term is 3 days or less, Intermediate is 2 weeks and long term is monthly or some combination of those time factors. These widely used terms and definitions over time {no pun intended} did not serve me well. They may be appropriate for the non professional trader to describe how long he wishes to hold a position or to describe market movements as he understands them, but not for the professional. I had come to realize that due to increased volatility, speed of market news dissemination and Blog Factors {think Game Stop for example} market movements that in the past took weeks or months are now being completed in days or sometimes hours. I adopted different descriptions of short, intermediate, and long term to percentage price movements instead of specific time intervals. This one shift in beliefs allowed me to see mathematically how far a market moved and at what speed it was moving {based on the time factor}. It gave me an ability to realize an Intermediate move{for example} was happening very quickly and that alerted me to look for escape levels for profits or to cut a loser.
Consider These Percentages:
Ultra Short Term 1/2 % {.005} - 1.9%
Short Term 2% - 2.99%
Standard Term 3.0% - 3.99%
Medium Term 4%- 5.99%
Standard Medium Term 6% - 8.99%
Long Term 9% and above.
Through trail and error and years of experimenting I discovered that Price movements determine FUTURE Price movements. Markets have a dominate tendency to exhibit support and resistance at price points defined by percentage increases and declines of past Peak to Trough movements and vice versa. I was able to approximate the ideal ratio values to determine these future points of support and resistance. These levels have become my propriety Trend Reactionary Numbers that through natural market movements need to be adjusted. You will ascertain with the help of my TRNS that market movements assemble themselves into a few conspicuous types of action that have a certain orderliness. This orderliness is the price expression of human nature, or market psychology it is where we get to watch what drives traders to do what they do. It is a picture of the most powerful human habits. The habits of Fear, Hope and Greed are all charted out for us to observe and take advantage of.
"Experienced traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains. Always remember
There are only 3 rules. Rule number 1:- Protect Capital. Rule number 2:- don't forget rule number 1. Rule number 3:- Losing an opportunity is minor Low risk Idea 1st!
There are only 3 rules. Rule number 1:- Protect Capital. Rule number 2:- don't forget rule number 1. Rule number 3:- Losing an opportunity is minor Low risk Idea 1st!
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