Short

Updated

30% Bitcoin correction to circa $72k

On the above 2 day chart price action has printed 100% gain since September. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook in the near term. They include:

1) Price action failed support.

2) RSI and MFI failed support.

3) Strong bearish divergence with price action. 10 oscillators price negative divergence with price action at this time.

4) The $72k forecast is the 50% Fibonacci level.

5) What will happen to overbought alt tokens? Nothing good.

Is it possible price action continues to print higher highs like most Youtube shills are calling for? Sure.

Is it probable? No.

Ww

Note

Idea has naturally got a bit of push back since publishing.
Here's something you can all do to verify and validate if the technical supports the forecast.

On the 2 day chart, look left, price action was following the 2-day/50 SMA for some weeks before it's collapse.
34 days to be exact as shown on the 2-day/50 SMA bounce to a resistance confirmation, which would take us to March 16th before a significant market correction should be expected.

If you see this behaviour in price action following the SMA over the next weeks, expect a collapse.

Spooky.. . March 16th.. 2020

"there were multiple severe daily drops in the global stock market, the largest drop was on 16 March, nicknamed 'Black Monday II' of 12–13% in most global markets."

2 day

Trade active

Prepare yourself for a bloodbath... Emotional retail sellers are about to enter full panic mode offering the rest of us lovely discounts..

Note

That moment before market participants capitulate, can you feel it? The moment they throw in towel scream "manipulation" as the liquidations climb higher and the Lambo dreams are replaced with a 1982 Ford Pinto that has a hole in floor.

Note

Many messages on this idea during my absence. Apparently there is "no chance" this idea will play out.

15 days since this idea was published.
15 days you've had to exit Bitcoin long positions.
The market always gives you time.

A strong 2 day rejection of the 2-day/50.sma is about to print on Monday 24th.
No sensible investor of trader would purchase into broken market structure.

Note

Price action has confirmed broken market structure and entered the Gaussian channel.
Except a long slow grind down to $72k area until July or August. Look left.

If price action drops down to $62k, the Micro strategy fund will liquidated with forced sell orders from creditors.

Note

Published at $96k.... now $86k. .. - to go.

Note

"Sell it all sell it quick before it goes to 0"

This is the current mindset of the market... are they right?

Note

$18k up in smoke, $6k to go until target.

Note

A classic sign of broken market structure confirmation. Could not wish for a cleaner example.

Note

Only another $10k to go... and bulls, you better hope support confirms on that area as it is just another $10k correction until Saylor's fund is forced to start liquidating Bitcoin to cover debts.

Welcome to the Ponzi, everyone is a winner... until their not. Even Billionaires.

Note

21 hours ago, only 10k.... now only 8k to go. They said it could never happen.

Remember... if 72-75k does not offer support, straight down into the low $60k area. At that point Micro Strategy is below average buy in. As long as price stays there the risk of liquidation grows for Micro strategy. FTX Mk II, should be quite fun.

Note

Had a few ask if this idea is now void.

No, I'm afraid not.

2 day candle bodies must close above 95k to void the idea.

Note

Not long to go now... need market participants to throw in the towel, leveraged traded liquidated.. the bull market continues once the weak and greedy hands are flushed out of the market.

Note

Bitcoin bulls ready to capitulate as the price action is on the verge of entering the 5 day Gaussian channel.

Look left, wicks correcting 20% off the market are typical.

Note

A crash to the area should be expected in the coming days.

Meanwhile Herr Saylor has managed to increase his leverage position to $67,458.00 per Bitcoin.

Track it here:
mstr-tracker.com

The liquidation of his Bitcoin fund is very real. It would be likely, should price action begin to close weekly candles under the average buy in level, for creditors to demand repayment of the debt. That would mean forced selling of the fund's 528,185 BTC.

Note

Mr Saylor now only away from liquidation... so exciting!

Note

PS: Price action is now on the Golden Ratio since correcting from 109k and folks are still selling.

Remember the 90%, the dumb money, who bought at 109k are now selling at 80k, next this market bottom.

Trade closed: target reached

Touched 74.5k so far, am good with that. Whether price action touches that area again or not is of little importance.

Enjoy the last leg up to $140k and beyond!

without_worries

BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy

Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

Also on:

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without_worries

BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy

Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

Also on: