Bitcoin Halving Statistic Based Predictions
Hey Traders!
I am going to be discussing things complementary to the chart above, so I highly encourage you to look at that first.
if you want to know how I make my predictions and the statistical framework used, just ask me via direct message.
Yesterday we finally saw some bearish action, Yay bears! I guess . . .
Bulls you should have seen this coming! This was probably the easiest drop to predict.
If you were following my earlier post you saw that I predicted this volatility to happen, 30 minutes before it actually happened.
I did not hold any short positions since I did not expect it to drop below 6k and if it did I was planning to short at 6.2k since I predicted if 6k is broken it would only meet a little resistance @5.8k and the majority of price action at 5.5k.
At the time of writing bitcoin is trading just above $6200. This is almost 24 hours past the initial price drop, that too just the perfect small drop that can act as resistance now but support in the weeks leading up to the halving. I think as long as we do not see more bearish action this drop can be seen as a lion crouching down before he pounces on his prey aka BTC's price drop before halving action. Notice the 2 wicks hitting the low 6k range and immediately bouncing off, the more we test 6k the weaker it becomes.
You may ask, WHY SO EARLY? Halving Did Not Happen (32 Days Left)
Keep in mind the amount of people that know the halving is going to happen has skyrocketed every year, let alone every 4 years. Since social media, YouTube and the news media, have all been discussing this phenomenon the market has a very high chance of prematurely reacting.
(That is not to say, BTC wont shoot up a second time post halving)
Although most other people, indicators and oscillators are currently bearish, keep in mind regular market models are thrown out the window in a time like this. This CVID19 crisis was the tipping point for U.S. to go into full recession mode.
The U.S. Gov. will only tell you we are in recession if we remain in recession for half an year aka 2 trading quarters.
Remember to Take a Deep Breath and Enjoy Life
-Soorya P.
Feel Free to Leave a Like!
I am going to be discussing things complementary to the chart above, so I highly encourage you to look at that first.
if you want to know how I make my predictions and the statistical framework used, just ask me via direct message.
Yesterday we finally saw some bearish action, Yay bears! I guess . . .
Bulls you should have seen this coming! This was probably the easiest drop to predict.
If you were following my earlier post you saw that I predicted this volatility to happen, 30 minutes before it actually happened.
I did not hold any short positions since I did not expect it to drop below 6k and if it did I was planning to short at 6.2k since I predicted if 6k is broken it would only meet a little resistance @5.8k and the majority of price action at 5.5k.
At the time of writing bitcoin is trading just above $6200. This is almost 24 hours past the initial price drop, that too just the perfect small drop that can act as resistance now but support in the weeks leading up to the halving. I think as long as we do not see more bearish action this drop can be seen as a lion crouching down before he pounces on his prey aka BTC's price drop before halving action. Notice the 2 wicks hitting the low 6k range and immediately bouncing off, the more we test 6k the weaker it becomes.
You may ask, WHY SO EARLY? Halving Did Not Happen (32 Days Left)
Keep in mind the amount of people that know the halving is going to happen has skyrocketed every year, let alone every 4 years. Since social media, YouTube and the news media, have all been discussing this phenomenon the market has a very high chance of prematurely reacting.
(That is not to say, BTC wont shoot up a second time post halving)
Although most other people, indicators and oscillators are currently bearish, keep in mind regular market models are thrown out the window in a time like this. This CVID19 crisis was the tipping point for U.S. to go into full recession mode.
The U.S. Gov. will only tell you we are in recession if we remain in recession for half an year aka 2 trading quarters.
Remember to Take a Deep Breath and Enjoy Life
-Soorya P.
Feel Free to Leave a Like!
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