Updated

Long term targets approaching

Well, I thought it will be not so quick. So targets are:
~$100k and $180k - realistic and optimistic targets if rainbow charts regression is valid (google bitcoin rainbow charts).
~$260k if we deal with simple logarithmic trend

This is it. After that major top something really bad should happen in a whole world economy, which will trigger biggest and longest Bitcoin selloff and world economic crisis.

[offtop] Many of my patterns broken during this run. Mostly all weekly patterns. That is why so much short term failed predictions.

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Some short term warning on daily. Price broke down long ascending support line (green) and attempting to retest it now. It will continue to plunge if fail. Add here huge macd divergence.

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Yet weekly chart looks neutral, monthly chart looks bullish.

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TradingView application oftenly mislead language settings and thus sometimes in some way my English ideas go to Russian section of the site. I don't know why this happens.

However mods are very angry because this and threaten ban to me. Because I don't understand reason of such aggression to PRO account with 20k rating, I advised to them go fuck themselves literally.

So if my account disappear from TV, search me on Bitcointalk forum in speculation section, like in old good times.

Cheers.

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Previous price warning looses its power with time. Yet we have some kind of bearish wedge. But if you remember, Bitcoin breaks bearish wedges to the upside...

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Monthly. Bullish as fuck. Open well above BB. However retest of 50k is possible (upper BB).

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Still in wedge, but be aware, bitcoin breaks bearish wedges to the upside!

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Not this time! Wedge is triggering

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It is very rare when Bitcoin triggers bearish wedge during bull run. But it did. The wedge target is around $40000.
I think bull run is now paused for ~half year/whole year correction.

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Triggered wedge will likely send price here

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Very strong MACD divergences on daily, no signs of price recovery yet

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Precision hourly pic hints me upper bound of my initial bearish target and it is at $45k-$47k.

Weekly MA20 besides here if you switch to weekly graph. Price may bounce pretty nice from these levels and there is a nice odds that it may not go deeper in short term (and even probably in long term). I see long term rally has not been damaged so far.

As for correction sharpness - wedges always were such bitch, this is normal.

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As for long term weekly picture.

Rally has not seriously been damaged as long as this bearish MACD cross did not happen (it is about to happen, but didn't yet as candle is in progress). As you can see, price has at most 1 weekly candle to bounce the fuck out of here. And it could!

This is why I keep in mind it could bounce as sharply as it plunged and I am very scared short term bear now.

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Apr 3 update: realized in full, $50k retested
Apr 18 update: Almost realized, $47k reached
Apr 23 update: realized in full, $47k reached, got strong reversal reaction

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Very strong reversal pattern on hourly, double bottom, downward channel break up. Hope this reversal will be projected on daily picture.

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And we got a dodji candle on monthly and still close above BB! Fasten your belts, this bull run will go on next level with even bigger acceleration.

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For plan B actions: SELL STOP @new_low ($46000), TARGET daily ma 200 ($37000).

However still in ascending channel provided by usernamex apr 18.

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This is trend I talked about (credits usernamex). Price is currently stomping its bottom line.

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Got a last wedge's small brother in short term. This is bearish figure, yet small. In a case of break down we'll get either bear trap or bad midterm news.

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Short term good news:
- In positive BB on daily, weekly
- In ascending long term trend (in an edge though)

Short term bad news:
- This weekly MACD didn't cross back still 4th candle in a row

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plan B active. see above.

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Death cross on daily coming. Plan B active.

Many people who thought they are big, broke their teeth attacking Bitcoin....

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Plan B realized in full, target 37000 reached, bottom at 30000.

Long term bull run didn't damaged yet!

I'll show you pic from 2013. If we'll divide current prices by 1000....

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Now it will go to retest daily middle BB, aka daily ma 20 located around $50k... Should be clearer picture then...

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I was surprised to find daily ma50 and ma100 didn't crossed yet. Usually it's an event with bearish activity. So more downside expected, and retest of ma 200,100,50,20 will expected then.

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I see some analysts draws that H&S pattern in Bitcoin. I was thinking about it even earlier, but anyway it is too early to draw one. H&S to be taken seriously must form right shoulder almost full and only when it breaking down the neck after that, it is considered valid and triggering.

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Some EW for you

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It doesn't hurry much to break up daily ma 200. This is bad for bulls.

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I suppose monthly will close like that or worse. So it is bearish.

Candle closed below BB, so it's now doomed to visit monthly ma20 (currently at around 20k and rising). Optionally it could, but doesn't has to re visit upper BB (currently at 52k).

Remember this is monthly graph and it is very slow.

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Weekly picture. BB has been coiled. That means next jump jump above or below its borders will define further price trend.

But before that price usually retests ma20 (BB middle line). So revisit of $50k looks inevitable. Then price will show where it would go.

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Elon go home. We heading to 50k.

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In a case of further elonization here is a trend of falling knife down to 20k... This move was provided on monthly picture two posts above.

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We are heading towards 20k...

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Looks like bear trap so far

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H&S eventually on table. Big damage to bulls if triggered.

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My new russian telegram channel
t.me/wangabtc

PentarhUdi

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New long term prediction as I see it now

by PentarhUdi

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