Bearish Bat Harmonic and Possible Elliott Wave Count for Bitcoin
Updated
This bat appears on multiple exchanges and is accompanied by both regular and hidden bearish divergences from the 1m chart all the way up to the 1D chart. We are also starting to form a bearish divergent bar on the 4H chart and could possibly form one on the 1D before the close today.
I believe that this is Wave-a of a flat because it has retraced further than 61.8% of what I believe to be wave-1. This, along with the fact that it is very short time-wise compared to wave-1, would imply that wave-2 is not yet completed and that the most likely pattern it is in is a flat, which we just completed Wave-a of. There is another distinct possibility which is that we are in an expanding triangle and that the bull-trend could continue until we break the previous high around 300, however, based on the monthly chart, I think that that is rather unlikely because the monthly chart is in what appears to be a double zigzag, like my previously published chart predicts, so an expanding triangle wouldn't make very much sense here.
Either way this is an excellent risk/reward short. Bullish sentiment is extremely high which is generally a good indication of exuberance, especially since there is a lack of accompanying bullish signals and/or long-term elliott wave counts. Either way I would proceed with caution and only trade with an amount of money you feel comfortable losing, otherwise, panic and fear will set in and you will be more prone to making mistakes.
The target for Wave-b has many possibilities (see the huge green box). It is best to wait for this to start diverging on the lower-timeframes before taking profit and riding Wave-c to the top.
Good luck and happy trading!
Scamcoins
I believe that this is Wave-a of a flat because it has retraced further than 61.8% of what I believe to be wave-1. This, along with the fact that it is very short time-wise compared to wave-1, would imply that wave-2 is not yet completed and that the most likely pattern it is in is a flat, which we just completed Wave-a of. There is another distinct possibility which is that we are in an expanding triangle and that the bull-trend could continue until we break the previous high around 300, however, based on the monthly chart, I think that that is rather unlikely because the monthly chart is in what appears to be a double zigzag, like my previously published chart predicts, so an expanding triangle wouldn't make very much sense here.
Either way this is an excellent risk/reward short. Bullish sentiment is extremely high which is generally a good indication of exuberance, especially since there is a lack of accompanying bullish signals and/or long-term elliott wave counts. Either way I would proceed with caution and only trade with an amount of money you feel comfortable losing, otherwise, panic and fear will set in and you will be more prone to making mistakes.
The target for Wave-b has many possibilities (see the huge green box). It is best to wait for this to start diverging on the lower-timeframes before taking profit and riding Wave-c to the top.
Good luck and happy trading!
Scamcoins
Trade closed: stop reached
Stops reached, could keep going up from here.Note
"There is another distinct possibility that we are in an expanding triangle..."Looking further into my previously dismissed intuition It does now seem like we are in an expanding triangle. It appears to be of the Limiting-Running variety. I still need to make more confirmations before publishing this as a stand-alone chart, but it does seem like we have reached the bottom if this chart is right. We will get another wave (c) down into the 200s again, but I no longer believe that we are going to make any new lows below that if this chart can be confirmed.
Note
So I have found a pattern that may actually fit better than the C-failure Flat: The Terminal Impulse Wave-C.However, I am not yet removing the c-failure as a possibility, for now putting it on the back-burner and putting my attention towards this terminal impulse unless I can find a rule that invalidates it. It will be relatively impossible to predict whether or not this will be a 3rd wave or 5th wave extension but on this chart it is drawn as an ideal 5th wave extension configuration.
During this type of correction it is prudent to wait until it is complete before taking a definite long-term position, however, unless I can come up with another possibility I think that these are the only two remaining, with a heavy emphasis on the Terminal Impulse being the dominant pattern. We'll know which one is right in the coming months. If we break the high around 300 on this run then we will know the terminal is invalid, and it will probably be best to fall back to the c-failure flat and keep looking for other counts.
Note
If this count is right, we are almost definitely in a Terminal Impulsive Wave c like I just said above.The timing on this chart is perfect, wait until tomorrow night to see if the pattern completes like expected, if it does, SHORT.
Note
Played out Exactly like expected. This could be the top.Note
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