The daily chart in its simplest form can be broken down into this range. Since President Trumps inauguration, BTC has declined from a range high of $108,000 back to the lows of $74,500 closing the FVG caused by the US election rally. After a double bottom Bitcoin mean reverted back to the range midpoint which to me is the most important area on the entire chart because it decides if the bull run can continue or if it dies.
I like to keep a close eye on the 200 EMA on multiple timeframes but the 1D is important to gauge the momentum of the move. As the US election results came in a massive push away from this moving average causes the level to steepen in its climb showing strength. Since BTC spent quite some time in the top half of the range the 1D 200 EMA flattens out signaling a loss of momentum, once this level does become flat it no longer provides support. For a bullish cycle to be just that ideally the corrective moves do not spend too much time below this level before expanding above and beyond it once again starting the next leg of the move. A persistent move down below causes a rollover and the cycle looks to be over with a bear market beginning.
Bullish scenario - The correction is over and BTC consistently posts HH's & HLs bringing the 1D 200 EMA up with price and continues the previous bullish trend. I would want to see the retest of the midpoint be successful and then move to reclaim the next local high before targeting range high. The bull market correction looks to be over and bullish continuation resumes.
Bearish scenario - This move is nothing more than a LH, BTC wicks the supply above midpoint, swing fails back under and continues to make LH's & LL's back down to range low where the 1D 200EMA will have now rolled over providing more of a resistance level. The bear market looks to have begun.
I am not here to make a call on where BTC is going next as I do not have that answer, but I do have to plan for each eventuality and that is what I have done here from a TA pint of view. Now it is entirely possible that Geo-political news or an exchange hack etc throws TA out of the window and I have to rethink the plan but in a strictly chart structure perspective this is how I see it.
The indicator "TRADING ENVIRONMENT+V1.0" used in the Idea post is now publicly available for use, give it a try and leave your thoughts and suggestions on the post, thank you.
I like to keep a close eye on the 200 EMA on multiple timeframes but the 1D is important to gauge the momentum of the move. As the US election results came in a massive push away from this moving average causes the level to steepen in its climb showing strength. Since BTC spent quite some time in the top half of the range the 1D 200 EMA flattens out signaling a loss of momentum, once this level does become flat it no longer provides support. For a bullish cycle to be just that ideally the corrective moves do not spend too much time below this level before expanding above and beyond it once again starting the next leg of the move. A persistent move down below causes a rollover and the cycle looks to be over with a bear market beginning.
Bullish scenario - The correction is over and BTC consistently posts HH's & HLs bringing the 1D 200 EMA up with price and continues the previous bullish trend. I would want to see the retest of the midpoint be successful and then move to reclaim the next local high before targeting range high. The bull market correction looks to be over and bullish continuation resumes.
Bearish scenario - This move is nothing more than a LH, BTC wicks the supply above midpoint, swing fails back under and continues to make LH's & LL's back down to range low where the 1D 200EMA will have now rolled over providing more of a resistance level. The bear market looks to have begun.
I am not here to make a call on where BTC is going next as I do not have that answer, but I do have to plan for each eventuality and that is what I have done here from a TA pint of view. Now it is entirely possible that Geo-political news or an exchange hack etc throws TA out of the window and I have to rethink the plan but in a strictly chart structure perspective this is how I see it.
The indicator "TRADING ENVIRONMENT+V1.0" used in the Idea post is now publicly available for use, give it a try and leave your thoughts and suggestions on the post, thank you.
Note
Bullish scenario looks to be playing out to a tee post FOMC.$100k is a significant milestone now, both as a big even and also a supply zone.
Trade closed: target reached
BTC new all time high
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.