It's quite a rare occurrence when the 200 EMA finds itself in a very similar position but right now BTC has that exact setup.
On the 4H BTC is fighting the moving average for the 12th time since losing the support level at the beginning in February. At this time the bearish trend channel upper limit also coincides with this level now, IMO a big move is being setup, but the direction is unsure.
On the daily we're seeing the moving average also in line with the trend resistance however the curve itself differs to the 4H in the way that it's levelling out from an uptrend, not levelling out from downtrend.
Bullish scenario - Breaking out above the moving average and trend channel with strength I believe would start to bring buyers back. Now I would not expect buyers to come flooding in at once as many have been burned too many times trying to long a breakout only for it to be a fakeout. I could see many looking for a form of confirmation, be that a retest as new support or a new HH & HL structure.
Bearish scenario - Yet another rejection off this level would be continuation of the downtrend with many adding to their shorts. This to me would be tied to the SPX/ Tradfi movements although those markets are much stronger than this time last week.
In conclusion there is no clear sense of direction just yet but I think it's coming very soon. The chop we are seeing at the moment is a symptom of a lack of confidence and uncertainty in market conditions. Naturally this lends itself to a continuation of the downtrend but all it takes is a catalyst and some big believers to push BTC out above the downtrend to continue the bullrun. I think we get our answer soon.
On the 4H BTC is fighting the moving average for the 12th time since losing the support level at the beginning in February. At this time the bearish trend channel upper limit also coincides with this level now, IMO a big move is being setup, but the direction is unsure.
On the daily we're seeing the moving average also in line with the trend resistance however the curve itself differs to the 4H in the way that it's levelling out from an uptrend, not levelling out from downtrend.
Bullish scenario - Breaking out above the moving average and trend channel with strength I believe would start to bring buyers back. Now I would not expect buyers to come flooding in at once as many have been burned too many times trying to long a breakout only for it to be a fakeout. I could see many looking for a form of confirmation, be that a retest as new support or a new HH & HL structure.
Bearish scenario - Yet another rejection off this level would be continuation of the downtrend with many adding to their shorts. This to me would be tied to the SPX/ Tradfi movements although those markets are much stronger than this time last week.
In conclusion there is no clear sense of direction just yet but I think it's coming very soon. The chop we are seeing at the moment is a symptom of a lack of confidence and uncertainty in market conditions. Naturally this lends itself to a continuation of the downtrend but all it takes is a catalyst and some big believers to push BTC out above the downtrend to continue the bullrun. I think we get our answer soon.
Note
BTC breaks out of the downtrend and above both moving averages, de-coupling from the SPX as Tradfi continues to sell-off putting in a lower high on the daily.A huge increase in OI yesterday with nearly $400m inflows from ETFs suggest buyers are returning on this breakout. I would still like to see a successful retest of the breakout area to confirm that the de-coupling isn't just a fakeout MM play, until then cautiously optimistic.
Note
As BTC fast approaches the $91,000 resistance level this should be interesting to see what happens!Note
Really impressive strength so far shown by the market, the pullback has been bought up instantly showing great intent by buyers. 
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.