BTCUSDT - Trying to be bullish but Wyckoff Distribution?

Lost a bunch of money in the past couple of months trying to trade like a bull. Today, I misclicked on Bybit and accidentally closed all my positions, which were in the red. That meant I lost a lot of money. I sat behind the computer and went out looking for answers.

This is one of the first ideas. Why? Because USDT.D looks to be forming a low, and if USDT goes up, it usually means all assets go down.

We also had multiple opportunities to break to the upside but didn’t. A break to the downside is usually the most painful.

Invalidation of the idea: A break above 108,000.

Trade active

This is a long term idea. Expectations:

1. we break down anytime from end of March to end of April
2. Untill that time I expect a BTC.D to drop down (54-56%) and we have a mini alt season - it will last from 30 to 60 days.
3. after that we all heard about the saying "sell in May and go Away"
4. We have this drop
5. September comes and we have our final leg

It sounds crazy but lets see what happens.

Short term, Looking at BTC and going into alts when BTC comes down to aroudn 96k and bellow.

Note

If I am correct with this Idea a crazy ALT season ahead. Should start to move this week. First leg up I expect to not retrace and will not give a good entrance on a retracment. Should be up only for the next 3-6 weeks. Fingers crossed I am right. End of march end of april I expect the "big" retracement.

Note

If we had a traders market up to this point I think from now on we will have a hodlers market. with small retracements.

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