What to expect from BTC in the next six months? Global forecast
Updated
Half of 2024 is over. During this time, Bitcoin has managed to update its 💥historical highs. What can we expect from bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in the future?
For six months, there was only one month when the price was actively growing. It was February 2024:
In one month, the BTC price rose by 💎43% and began consolidating on the monthly timeframe.
In March, the BTC price updated its historical high. This month saw the highest volume trading in 2024.
The situation with BTC is most dangerous on the monthly timeframe. For 4 months, bitcoin has been consolidating under the historical high. If we didn't know that it was bitcoin, we would have expected the price to fall by the end of 2024 with a minimum target of $41,000.
However, a similar situation with bitcoin occurred exactly a year ago. The BTC price stopped in consolidation starting in March 2023. During the summer, bitcoin did not move anywhere globally, and since September, we have seen a powerful wave of growth:
Given the fact that bitcoin has never stopped its growth after updating its historical highs, the likelihood of such a scenario is also high:
Great! So how do we make trading decisions? To do this, let's look at smaller timeframes. For example, a weekly one.
After a strong upward momentum in the BTC price since September 2023, sellers have reacted rather weakly to the update of the historical high:
In our opinion, everything will become clear after the BTC price updates the $56,000 mark. If the decline slows down and the price rebounds actively, we do not expect a deep correction of BTC and will wait for the extension of the BTC term and the update of historical highs by the end of 2024.
However, if there is no support in the $55,000 range, this is a signal that 2024 will end with a boring correction with the main target of $42,000.
And until the BTC price tests the $55,000 range, we would not make global decisions.
However, what will happen to altcoins if, for example, bitcoin goes to $42,000?
Here, I would like to show you a chart of BTC's dominance on the monthly timeframe so that you can understand how much things can change:
Since October 2023, it has become extremely difficult to update local highs on the BTC dominance chart. And this is not even helped by Bitcoin ETFs. During July-August 2024, bitcoin's influence may drop sharply to 47%. Therefore, even in a negative scenario, when bitcoin falls to the $42,000 range, other cryptocurrencies should not fall as much as they did in June.
And now let's look at what chance the cryptocurrency market has of falling back into a protracted crypto winter!
Here is a chart of USDT's dominance on the monthly timeframe:
In January 2024, the USDT dominance indicator broke through the 2019 USDT dominance uptrend! The worst-case scenario we see now is a retest of the consolidation in which USDT dominance moved from June 2022 to October 2023. However, such a scenario is possible if the current 5.1% range does not keep the pressure off USDT dominance:
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the growth structure of USDT dominance does not look strong.
What conclusions can be drawn from this information?
👉By the end of the summer, bitcoin has a good chance of losing its influence on the cryptocurrency market. And it can happen abruptly.
👉In July, it will become clear whether the cryptocurrency market will grow by the end of 2024 or whether 2024 will end on a bearish note.
👉Right now, there is a critical point in the cryptocurrency market from which the market can start a new medium-term growth wave. And it is during this growth that altcoins will feel good.
What do you think about the cryptocurrency market by the end of 2024? Write your thoughts in the comments!
For six months, there was only one month when the price was actively growing. It was February 2024:
In one month, the BTC price rose by 💎43% and began consolidating on the monthly timeframe.
In March, the BTC price updated its historical high. This month saw the highest volume trading in 2024.
The situation with BTC is most dangerous on the monthly timeframe. For 4 months, bitcoin has been consolidating under the historical high. If we didn't know that it was bitcoin, we would have expected the price to fall by the end of 2024 with a minimum target of $41,000.
However, a similar situation with bitcoin occurred exactly a year ago. The BTC price stopped in consolidation starting in March 2023. During the summer, bitcoin did not move anywhere globally, and since September, we have seen a powerful wave of growth:
Given the fact that bitcoin has never stopped its growth after updating its historical highs, the likelihood of such a scenario is also high:
Great! So how do we make trading decisions? To do this, let's look at smaller timeframes. For example, a weekly one.
After a strong upward momentum in the BTC price since September 2023, sellers have reacted rather weakly to the update of the historical high:
In our opinion, everything will become clear after the BTC price updates the $56,000 mark. If the decline slows down and the price rebounds actively, we do not expect a deep correction of BTC and will wait for the extension of the BTC term and the update of historical highs by the end of 2024.
However, if there is no support in the $55,000 range, this is a signal that 2024 will end with a boring correction with the main target of $42,000.
And until the BTC price tests the $55,000 range, we would not make global decisions.
However, what will happen to altcoins if, for example, bitcoin goes to $42,000?
Here, I would like to show you a chart of BTC's dominance on the monthly timeframe so that you can understand how much things can change:
Since October 2023, it has become extremely difficult to update local highs on the BTC dominance chart. And this is not even helped by Bitcoin ETFs. During July-August 2024, bitcoin's influence may drop sharply to 47%. Therefore, even in a negative scenario, when bitcoin falls to the $42,000 range, other cryptocurrencies should not fall as much as they did in June.
And now let's look at what chance the cryptocurrency market has of falling back into a protracted crypto winter!
Here is a chart of USDT's dominance on the monthly timeframe:
In January 2024, the USDT dominance indicator broke through the 2019 USDT dominance uptrend! The worst-case scenario we see now is a retest of the consolidation in which USDT dominance moved from June 2022 to October 2023. However, such a scenario is possible if the current 5.1% range does not keep the pressure off USDT dominance:
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the growth structure of USDT dominance does not look strong.
What conclusions can be drawn from this information?
👉By the end of the summer, bitcoin has a good chance of losing its influence on the cryptocurrency market. And it can happen abruptly.
👉In July, it will become clear whether the cryptocurrency market will grow by the end of 2024 or whether 2024 will end on a bearish note.
👉Right now, there is a critical point in the cryptocurrency market from which the market can start a new medium-term growth wave. And it is during this growth that altcoins will feel good.
What do you think about the cryptocurrency market by the end of 2024? Write your thoughts in the comments!
Note
Bitcoin's price has reached the global tipping point we discussed on June 28.The $55,000 range is a completely self-sufficient range from which a new wave of BTC growth can begin.
To confirm the strength of the buyers on the 12-hour timeframe, we want to see a rebound to 59000 and a retest of the $55000 range.
If everything happens as we expect and without updating local lows, this is a chance to buy BTC in the medium term with a first target of $66,500.
How are you feeling after today's drop? If there is a need to analyze your altcoins, write in the comments section of the article.
Note
On the two-week timeframe, it looks like bitcoin has held on to the critical $55,000 range.The chances of a global continuation of BTC's growth, or at least a test of the top of the consolidation in the range of $70,000-73,000, are quite high.
The BTC price has now reached the local critical point of $64000. Be careful. We have described why in this trade idea:
Note
BTC - global vision
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