Bitcoin – Reaccumulation or Distribution?
Background:
1. Since February 2023, Bitcoin has been trading in a range. The range high is 73.8K, and the range low is 59.6 K.
2. In real time, It is difficult to determine whether the schematic in play is a reaccumulation or a distribution schematic. To answer this question conclusively, we must wait for the breakdown below or the breakout above the range.
Distribution Scenario:
3. If this is a distribution phase, Bitcoin will drop below the range and will not be able to reclaim it.
If this happens, I expect Bitcoin to find support at 53K and try to resume the uptrend from that level.
Reaccumulation Scenario:
4. In the event that Bitcoin is in a reaccumulation phase, we can anticipate two potential scenarios:
a. A temporary drop below the range to shake out the “weak hands.” In the Wyckoff terminology, it is called a “Spring.” Following the spring action, Bitcoin will reclaim the range and continue with an impulsive PA to the upside, culminating in a breakout above the range.
b. A touch of the range low, a ST. Or a resumption of the bullish trend to the upside from the current price level. This scenario is less likely because it should have materialized by now if this was the primary scenario.
However, if this is how it will play out, watch for the local resistance at 62.25K. A decisive break above 62.2K will signal that this is it.
If this is the end of the bull market, it will be the first time in history that Bitcoin has entered a bear market before the halving. This is not likely at all.
Best Wishes
1. Since February 2023, Bitcoin has been trading in a range. The range high is 73.8K, and the range low is 59.6 K.
2. In real time, It is difficult to determine whether the schematic in play is a reaccumulation or a distribution schematic. To answer this question conclusively, we must wait for the breakdown below or the breakout above the range.
Distribution Scenario:
3. If this is a distribution phase, Bitcoin will drop below the range and will not be able to reclaim it.
If this happens, I expect Bitcoin to find support at 53K and try to resume the uptrend from that level.
Reaccumulation Scenario:
4. In the event that Bitcoin is in a reaccumulation phase, we can anticipate two potential scenarios:
a. A temporary drop below the range to shake out the “weak hands.” In the Wyckoff terminology, it is called a “Spring.” Following the spring action, Bitcoin will reclaim the range and continue with an impulsive PA to the upside, culminating in a breakout above the range.
b. A touch of the range low, a ST. Or a resumption of the bullish trend to the upside from the current price level. This scenario is less likely because it should have materialized by now if this was the primary scenario.
However, if this is how it will play out, watch for the local resistance at 62.25K. A decisive break above 62.2K will signal that this is it.
If this is the end of the bull market, it will be the first time in history that Bitcoin has entered a bear market before the halving. This is not likely at all.
Best Wishes
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