Navigating a Projected 2025-28 Bear Cycle & Accumulation Roadmap
Fellow Traders,
This post outlines a conceptual Bitcoin bear market projection (2025-2028) and a phased accumulation strategy, based on synthesized market cycle data. (Inspired by external analyses).
I. Projected Bear Market Timeline:
Q4 2025: Euphoria Top (Potential 100k-120k)
Q1 2026: Bear Trigger (SPX correction, BTC < 60k)
Q4 2026: Capitulation (Crash towards $30k, miner selling)
Q2 2027: Extreme Fear & Bottom (Recession, BTC plunge to 18k-25k)
Q4 2027: Accumulation Begins (e.g., MVRV < 0.5)
Q1 2028 onwards: Slow Recovery (Halving anticipation)
II. Phased Accumulation Strategy:
A systematic buying approach across distinct price zones, triggered by on-chain/macro signals:
Early Accumulation (22k - 25k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like MVRV < 0.85, high VIX.
Core Accumulation (18.5k - 20k): 50% Allocation.
Triggers like Hash Ribbons "Recovery," low funding rates.
Aggressive Accumulation (16.5k - 17.5k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like Fed cuts, NUPL < -0.75.
Black Swan Buy (14k - 15k): 10% Allocation.
For extreme, unexpected negative events.
(Timelines for these phases roughly span Q4 2026 - Q3 2027)
III. Key Supporting Concepts:
Price Floor Models: Models like MVRV Z-Score (16.8k), Thermo Cap (17.2k), and Realized Price (21k) align with accumulation zones.
Bottom Confirmation: Watch for signals like MVRV < 0.75, aSOPR < 0.85 (est. Q2-Q3 2027).
Diversified Capital: Strategy suggests a broader allocation including BTC Spot (70%), Gold (15%), Cash (10%), and BTC Call Options (5%) for risk management.
Conclusion:
This conceptual framework suggests a long-term, disciplined approach to navigating a potential BTC downturn and subsequent accumulation. Patience, phased entry based on data (not emotion), and risk awareness are paramount.
This is a conceptual model, not financial advice. DYOR.
This post outlines a conceptual Bitcoin bear market projection (2025-2028) and a phased accumulation strategy, based on synthesized market cycle data. (Inspired by external analyses).
I. Projected Bear Market Timeline:
Q4 2025: Euphoria Top (Potential 100k-120k)
Q1 2026: Bear Trigger (SPX correction, BTC < 60k)
Q4 2026: Capitulation (Crash towards $30k, miner selling)
Q2 2027: Extreme Fear & Bottom (Recession, BTC plunge to 18k-25k)
Q4 2027: Accumulation Begins (e.g., MVRV < 0.5)
Q1 2028 onwards: Slow Recovery (Halving anticipation)
II. Phased Accumulation Strategy:
A systematic buying approach across distinct price zones, triggered by on-chain/macro signals:
Early Accumulation (22k - 25k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like MVRV < 0.85, high VIX.
Core Accumulation (18.5k - 20k): 50% Allocation.
Triggers like Hash Ribbons "Recovery," low funding rates.
Aggressive Accumulation (16.5k - 17.5k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like Fed cuts, NUPL < -0.75.
Black Swan Buy (14k - 15k): 10% Allocation.
For extreme, unexpected negative events.
(Timelines for these phases roughly span Q4 2026 - Q3 2027)
III. Key Supporting Concepts:
Price Floor Models: Models like MVRV Z-Score (16.8k), Thermo Cap (17.2k), and Realized Price (21k) align with accumulation zones.
Bottom Confirmation: Watch for signals like MVRV < 0.75, aSOPR < 0.85 (est. Q2-Q3 2027).
Diversified Capital: Strategy suggests a broader allocation including BTC Spot (70%), Gold (15%), Cash (10%), and BTC Call Options (5%) for risk management.
Conclusion:
This conceptual framework suggests a long-term, disciplined approach to navigating a potential BTC downturn and subsequent accumulation. Patience, phased entry based on data (not emotion), and risk awareness are paramount.
This is a conceptual model, not financial advice. DYOR.
A Haque
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
A Haque
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.