Bitcoin to 52K by August 2024
I understand that my prediction may seem bold. However, I have meticulously conducted a comprehensive analysis that I urge you to review in detail, which should instill confidence in the validity of my prediction.
Background:
1. The BTC weekly chart is squared. The price-time ratio is 859.
2. Gan Angles: The central Gann angles are the 1/2 (63), 1/1 (45), and the 2/1 (27). These angles correspond to Fibonacci ratios as well.
3. From a Gann methodology perspective, dividing the chart into four angles with 11 degree spacing is wrong. However, Gann angles are a methodology, not a theology. I don’t consider myself a disciple but a practitioner. I'll use it if it corresponds to the chart's PA.
4. From a Wyckoff perspective, it is evident that Bitcoin is in an accumulation/ distribution schematic. I was leaning towards reaccumulation. I considered the deviation below the range low as a spring action and expected a breakout. Bitcoin failed to break above 72K on May 20th and 21st and between June 5th and 7th. The final step in a distribution schematic is a missing UTAD. From a Wyckoff perspective, an Upthrust after Distribution could have provided us with clarity. It is what it is. If Bitcoin drops below the range-low, we will have all the confirmation we need.
5. Market Structure. From a market structure perspective, a downtrend has not yet been confirmed. The volatility inside the range makes it difficult to see the forest from the trees. I will zoom out, use the weekly chart, and disregard the wicks to solve this issue. We need to see a weekly close below 61.4K on the weekly chart, followed by a HL, preferably below 61.4K.
Conclusion: There are some indications of a top. However, a top will not be confirmed until Bitcoin drops below the range-low and is retested as resistance.
From a trader’s perspective, I have enough data to reduce exposure to spot BTC and initiate short positions, which I will increase in size after confirmation.
Analysis:
To gain clarity, I employed Gann angles and Fibonacci circles. The advantage of using circles and angles is that they provide a timeframe for the price to achieve a particular milestone, unlike financial astrology, which is difficult to understand and sometimes inconclusive. Every trader can easily visualize lines and circles on a price chart.
I already addressed the squaring of the chart and my choice of angles in the background section. As for the circles, I used the Fibonacci circle tool, pulled from the cycle high to cycle low.
Because of my unconventional use of angles, I drew the “classic” Gan Angles, the 64, 45, 27, and 15 degrees in white. The subdivision of the 45-degree triangle is in yellow.
For horizontal Targets, I used a Fibonacci retracement. You can use a division by eights if it suits you better.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin will likely reach a price target of between 52K and 45K. Possibly as early as August 5th.
Invalidation:
A breakout above 74K and a S/R flip of 74K. If this occurs, the target is 89K.
Background:
1. The BTC weekly chart is squared. The price-time ratio is 859.
2. Gan Angles: The central Gann angles are the 1/2 (63), 1/1 (45), and the 2/1 (27). These angles correspond to Fibonacci ratios as well.
3. From a Gann methodology perspective, dividing the chart into four angles with 11 degree spacing is wrong. However, Gann angles are a methodology, not a theology. I don’t consider myself a disciple but a practitioner. I'll use it if it corresponds to the chart's PA.
4. From a Wyckoff perspective, it is evident that Bitcoin is in an accumulation/ distribution schematic. I was leaning towards reaccumulation. I considered the deviation below the range low as a spring action and expected a breakout. Bitcoin failed to break above 72K on May 20th and 21st and between June 5th and 7th. The final step in a distribution schematic is a missing UTAD. From a Wyckoff perspective, an Upthrust after Distribution could have provided us with clarity. It is what it is. If Bitcoin drops below the range-low, we will have all the confirmation we need.
5. Market Structure. From a market structure perspective, a downtrend has not yet been confirmed. The volatility inside the range makes it difficult to see the forest from the trees. I will zoom out, use the weekly chart, and disregard the wicks to solve this issue. We need to see a weekly close below 61.4K on the weekly chart, followed by a HL, preferably below 61.4K.
Conclusion: There are some indications of a top. However, a top will not be confirmed until Bitcoin drops below the range-low and is retested as resistance.
From a trader’s perspective, I have enough data to reduce exposure to spot BTC and initiate short positions, which I will increase in size after confirmation.
Analysis:
To gain clarity, I employed Gann angles and Fibonacci circles. The advantage of using circles and angles is that they provide a timeframe for the price to achieve a particular milestone, unlike financial astrology, which is difficult to understand and sometimes inconclusive. Every trader can easily visualize lines and circles on a price chart.
I already addressed the squaring of the chart and my choice of angles in the background section. As for the circles, I used the Fibonacci circle tool, pulled from the cycle high to cycle low.
Because of my unconventional use of angles, I drew the “classic” Gan Angles, the 64, 45, 27, and 15 degrees in white. The subdivision of the 45-degree triangle is in yellow.
For horizontal Targets, I used a Fibonacci retracement. You can use a division by eights if it suits you better.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin will likely reach a price target of between 52K and 45K. Possibly as early as August 5th.
Invalidation:
A breakout above 74K and a S/R flip of 74K. If this occurs, the target is 89K.
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